Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.

That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

I am reasonably certain that that is not the case. Either a list winning still gets the bonus, or there is no bonus. One or the other.

Also, if I read the Italian wiki correctly a party polling over 4% that is a member of a coalition polling below 10% still gets in? That could be relevant for Monti...

Yeah, A coalition polling < 10% is not counted as a coalition but rather as individual parties running on their own. The general, non-coalition threshold for parties is 4%. LOL, that would be really funny if the Monti coalition got < 10%, with only the Monti list > 4%. This would mean Fini and Casini completely shot themselves in the foot with that deal with Monti...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Phil likes to mess up with thread titles.

I like to do that when there are developments to bring attention to the thread. If you don't want to see that, don't quote the post. 

Oh, I don't really care. But it might be confusing sometimes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is Italy. Don't expect that to be a game changer.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll ask again, what's EMG's track record? They are the ones showing the widest margins for the left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An average of the most recent polls gives 34.9% for the left and 29.2% for the right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So looking like a 4-5 point IBC victory at this stage, so long as we don't get a 2006 repeat. If there are any last minute shifts we won't know.

Yeah, this 2-week ban on poll is ridiculous. I'm all for having a "period of calm" right before the election, but a couple day (as it is in France) should be enough.

Anyway, the average lead of the left in 2006 was 5.5 points. Now it's 5.7...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Was today the actual last day for polling?

Yup.

When will there be a debate? Is there even going to be a debate?

Last time I heard about it, the negotiations for a debate had collapsed because Berlusconi wanted the debate to be between coalition leaders (him, Bersani and Monti) while Bersani wanted to also include Grillo, Ingroia and Giannino. No idea why they each had this position, but maybe they were just looking for a pretext to not have a debate...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, just "voted"!

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large.

You mean, like one man, one party?

I just wanted to see the full slate of lists, yeah. All the choices from Fiamma Tricolore to some marxist-leninist outfits.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some Monti supporters say they want to support the PD guy for Lombaria regionals, instead to the "official" centrist candidate. Monti is VERY pissed off.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Some Monti supporters say they want to support the PD guy for Lombaria regionals, instead to the "official" centrist candidate. Monti is VERY pissed off.

Sure. Reasonable people must be worried and don't want to run to risk of letting Maroni get in.

Yeah, but Monti seemingly did not want "his" candidate (Albertini) to be sidelined, even though it's clear he can't win.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can one of the Italians explain what goes into get out the vote efforts in these elections? Italy almost always has astronomical turnout in national elections. It just seems like a given. It might sound silly but if 80-85% of people are coming out regardless, is there any really serious effort to push your side to the polls or is there more of an emphasis in having these policy debates to win over the undecideds in the run up to the election?

I have never heard about significant efforts by parties to turn out their voters, honestly. I know I don't live in Italy, but I highly doubt GOTV is a big deal there. Really, the US is the only Western country where there is such a focus in making sure people vote (which reflects even more poorly on your turnout levels).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, just "voted"!

By "voted", I mean, my parents put a cross on the symbol I indicated and then put my ballot in the envelope... which of course looks nothing like really voting.

Is that really legal?

Considering this is vote by mail and nobody will know who put the ballot in the envelope... kinda. How would you prevent that from happening?


Anyway, Italy's high turnout certainly has something to do with the fact you have two days of vote instead of only one like in most European countries. Sure, most US States have like two weeks and turnout is still abysmal...

[Antonio the Sixth]

How would you prevent that from happening?

Theoretically, your parents could send you your absentee ballot from Paris to San Francisco and you fill it out and return it to Italy by post ...

Otherwise:

VOTE FRAUD ! (Your parents might have voted for Silvio, and you don't even know it ... )

I know they didn't: I watched the whole process through Skype. Voting is serious business.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?

No, there's no signature required. The Italian consulate sends ballot's at the proper address, it's filled out and posted.

Where do you sign in Austria? And how do you avoid the problem of election officials being able to see who you voted for?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Question for Antonio:

Don't you have to personally sign the absentee ballot before hitting it into the letterbox ?

That's at least what I had to do ahead of the draft referendum, when I voted absentee.

So, if your parents "voted" for you, did they fake your signature ? Or is there none required ?

No, there's no signature required. The Italian consulate sends ballot's at the proper address, it's filled out and posted.

Where do you sign in Austria? And how do you avoid the problem of election officials being able to see who you voted for?

You sign the absentee ballot ENCLOSURE only, to guarantee that you yourself have filled out the ballot (of course nobody can check that ... ). The actual ballot is in a separate enclosure inside that first enclosure, which is then taken out at the district election commission the day after the election and all "real" anonymous ballot enclosures are then opened by the 10 or so members of the county election commission and counted. That guarantees the secrecy, because there are 2 enclosures and the ballot.

Sorry, I'm an idiot. We actually do have two enclosures as well in Italy (since on the external one there is the voter's name, obviously). No signature though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Too young for Senate.

Wait, there's a separate voting age for senate?

Yeah, you must be over 25 I think.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't understand how Berlusconi, after all the scandals he's been through, can really be making such a remarkable comeback. Can somebody inform me on what exactly this guys appeal is?

I didn't see that coming either, to be honest. I guess a significant factor behind it is the thorough stupidity, not only of the Italian electorate, but also of Berlusconi's opponents, especially Bersani with his absurd shenanigans with Monti. That doesn't exactly explain it, still.

Keep also in mind that Berlusconi's current level of polling (18-20% for PdL, 4-5% for Lega, around 5% for minor partners) is not exactly impressive. It's just that the threshold for victory is significantly lowered due to the unusually large number of competitive political force.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, a new scandal pops up today. The CEO of Finmeccanica, Italy's greatest industrial company, is in jail on bribery charges. This time it could hurt Monti, apparently, because the government had oversight on Finmeccanica and could possibly have acted earlier.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What are the general news (aside from corruption scandals) on economic development in the individual regions? And how could this impact on voting for the House and the Senate?

Formigoni has also been indicted in Lombardia. Apart from that I can't say much, except that the economy sucks everywhere.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not sure what "comeback" anyone sees for Berlusconi. The last polls behind the embargo consistently showed his coalition of parties 5 or 6 points behind the left and the 20% or so that would vote PdL is essentiually the bedrock 20% of Italians who will always vote for the rightwing option come hell or high water.

You're right, the Right coalition hasn't gained that much ground in the past few months. It's more the left coalition that has been dwindling, from about 40% to now the low 30s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For those who are interested in serious issues, today was a new scandal-fest. Tons of arrests have been made in I think four unrelated affair. The TV anchor said there hadn't been so many arrests since the Mani Pulite days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.