Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new Renzi-appointed PD executive board is majority female and has an average age of 36.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm turning into a Renzi hack. He gave a really excellent interview today at Ballaro'. Of course we'll still waiting for the deeds, but he's too smart not to deliver on what he so forcefully promised.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final PD results finally released

Renzi 1,895,252
Cuperlo 510,970
Civati 399,473

Total voters: 2,814,801

These numbers don't add up.

9.106 spoilt ballots

Ah, I see. So Renzi won 67.55%. Sad to see his margin over Cuperlo shrink below 50 points, but at least he's still over 2/3rds.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it's been quiet guys. Anything new?

So, let's see:

Fassina (undersecretary of the economy, PD of the pseudo-leftist kind) resigned after Renzi poked fun at him in an interview.

Alfano officially said he agrees with Renzi on electoral reform, though I'll believe him after I see him. Hopefully things start moving fast now.

Berlusconi once again thinking about running his daughter Marina in the last election.

Bersani recently made an aneurysm and has been hospitalized. Not sure how he's doing.

So yeah, not much by Italian standards.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So it's been quiet guys. Anything new?

So, let's see:

Fassina (undersecretary of the economy, PD of the pseudo-leftist kind) resigned after Renzi poked fun at him in an interview.

Could you explain to me the European obssession with resigning? Like Latvia's government "falling" over a supermarket collapse, and this?

Italy is not Europe - it's a very special place. Fassina had already threatened to resign a while back, over the squabbles that accompanied the last budget. He probably was waiting for a reason to leave this government, in which he's pretty uncomfortable for obvious reasons. Besides, like all the PD pseudo-leftists, he hates Renzi's guts and probably wanted it to be known.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

Renzi made 3 proposals:
- The "mayor of Italy" system (yes that's how it's being called), which, if I understand correctly, basically means a direct election of the PM in a two-round system and a majority bonus to the winner's party.
- A Spanish system, with PR in very small constituencies so as to favor larger parties.
- A return to the 1993-2005 electoral law, the so-called "mattarellum", with some tweaks once again to ensure a stable majority.

I think Alfano expressed a preference for the former. It's also to see what Berlusconi will do, since Renzi indicated he's available for a broader agreement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Which if any do you support?

To be honest, I'd be fine with any of them, as long as it works and ensures that never again we'll have to stand a situation like this one.

I understand your distaste for directly elected PMs, it's obviously very un-parliamentarian, and probably particularly unfit for a country like Italy where "strong personalities" have rarely done any good. That said, a national runoff system could be very beneficial in tactical terms. PD is only one of the 3 parties with an appeal broad enough to reach 50% (both Berlusconi and Grillo are divisive personalities loved by their own fans but hated/feared by everybody else, while the PD is just... uninspiring). Indeed, that's why PD has won nearly every local election since 2011, even when their national standing was awful, like in May-June 2013. So the runoff+majority bonus system might maximize our chances to end up with a strong, stable, PD government - which is the necessary, if obviously not sufficient, condition to stop the current disaster.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really do not understand why Italians want a deliberately disproportional electoral system, designed to manufacture an unjustified Parliamentary majority.

One might agree or disagree, but the reason why creating parliamentary majorities is a primary concern of Italian political debate should be obvious to anyone vaguely familiar with recent developments...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Except that much of all of that has actually been caused by mucking around with electoral systems to create majorities...

Well, the 2005 reform wasn't actually aimed at creating majorities (though that was the ostensible purpose). It was passed at a time when the right was almost assured of losing the election, so it's pretty likely that their goal was to make governing more difficult for Prodi (and boy, did they succeed...). It was easy to see why regional majority bonuses could easily lead to a catastrophe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Details, schmetails. My point is that constantly dicking around with the electoral system for blatant political ends has certainly contributed its share to the current fiasco...

Define "constant". There have been only two electoral reforms so far in Italy, and only the second one can be ascribed to "blatant political ends". In fact, the 1993 law was the exact opposite of that: it has effectively been imposed by the voters to a largely apathetic political establishment, following a referendum where 80% of Italians made it clear that they wanted to get rid of PR.

I obviously agree with your general point, playing around with electoral reform for political gain is a bad thing. But I just don't think this point is so important in the context of the current debate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd prefer the German, French, Aussie models, ideally FPTP. But the small parties won't sign their death warrant.

Ironically, small parties might prefer FPTP to a French-like two-round system. With FPTP, the large parties will probably try to get out of their way to minimize wasted votes and maximize their potential gains. So what would probably happen is that they would form agreements with their smaller allies, forming electoral agreements that leave a few safe seats to each so that only one candidate of the coalition runs in each. As a result, small party candidates would still win with the support of bigger ones. With two rounds of voting, the large parties have no need to do that: they can simply wait for the runoff to pick up their allies' votes. No need to give out any seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD +1

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tony, out of curiosity, which (non-fringe) party do you think I'd fit in best?

If you don't think that any alliance with PD is an unforgivable betrayal of left-wing ideals, then SEL should be fine for you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Berlusconi wants to lead his coalition's EP list

So he's already forgot that he's ineligible?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh boy, what a surrealistic masquerade (even by Italian standards!).

Renzi is making an ENORMOUS mistake, and proving he's not nearly the skillful politician I hoped he would be. I'm very pessimistic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What's Silvio saying about all of this? 

Officially, he's on "wait and see" mode, and all around being fairly open toward Renzi. Secretly, he's probably popping Champagne.

Haven't seen any poll yet. I have absolutely no idea how the Italians will take this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is this an enormous mistake? I'm not knowledgeable about the situation.

There are several reasons I can see:
- Because it makes Renzi look like a backstabbing hypocrite (he repeatedly assured he wouldn't threaten the government)
- Because it goes against Renzi's appeal, which has always been about opposing these kind of 1st republic-style arrangement and instead founding his legitimacy on popular support
- Because now he will have to deal directly with an unstable majority, and will take the blame for the lack of action that results from the need to accommodate everyone
- Because it means the legislature will last until 2018, which it clearly doesn't deserve to

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't understand anything.

I know, Italian politics are confusing as sh*t for the uninitiated.

If you have any specific question, I can do my best to explain stuff.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi lasting until 2018? No.

Yeah, few Italian PMs lasted more than 2 years, and those who did had the backing of a real parliamentary majority. I really want to believe Renzi will do wonders, but I'm not very hopeful right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As expected... T_T

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good. It's a meager solace considering everything else, but at least Berlusconi's local power structure keeps unraveling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Piemonte should flip soon enough, as Roberto "green underpants" Cota gets his ass kicked.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The prospective timetable now is: government announced on Friday, swearing in on Saturday, and confidence vote on Monday. Hopefully it will be respected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Government has been announced today. 8 men and 8 women. Almost all the PD guys have been replaced, but all three NCD ministers keep their portfolios (though Alfano lost his Deputy PM rank). The economy minister is yet another "technician", a guy named Padoan.