Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Rejoice, Antonio!

D'Alema threatens to split from the PD if there are new elections without a new electoral law.

As if there weren't enough good reasons to have new elections ASAP already!

[Antonio the Sixth]

At the very best, DP is going to start off around 5-6% and go downhill from there. Soon they will be an irrelevance, and Italian politics will be all the better for it.

You know, the saddest thing in all this for me is that, when the PD left is actually talking about policy, political culture, what it means to be left-wing etc., I completely agree with them. I think Renzi is a delusional third-wayite bent on turning the PD into some postmodern reincarnation of the DC. I'd love to see the Italian left actually embrace left-wing politics again and try to be a force for change rather than sheepishly accepting the neoliberal status quo.

These are all the things Bersani, D'Alema, Speranza etc. say, but when it actually comes to doing something, it's always in their narrow, short-term, petty interest. They sure didn't seem to give a sh*t about left-wing values when they supported the Letta government, or when they allied with Salvini and Berlusconi against the referendum. They're just petty, self-righteous hypocrites who desecrate all the great left-wing ideals they claim to defend. They're worthless hacks and the Italian left is better off about them. I'd rather have a sincere Blairite than f**king Molletists.

Emiliano seems different though. I'm glad he made the right choice and stayed. I'm leaning toward voting for him in the primary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

my knowledge of italian politics is quite limited but...isn't it quire hard anyway, to get anything done in italy, without selling your soul to 5-6 other groups and pray that your proposals fly through the parliament?

Yeah. That's one of the things Renzi wanted to change, but thanks to Bersani&co standing up for MUH CONSTITUTION that will never happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

Nothing, really. Lega/FdI and M5S might have a lot in common rhetorically, but there's no way they'd actually govern together.

Italian-boy, what's your opinion on the Consip affair? This looks pretty damning to me tbh. I don't see how Renzi gets out of it politically, even if he's not directly involved in the inquiry.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

They probably will in the end, yeah. Not that that will prevent both from getting trounced.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Could the Left and MDP join an alliance, or would that be untenable?

They probably will in the end, yeah. Not that that will prevent both from getting trounced.

Actually, that's exactly the sort of alliance which facilitates the trouncing process. Reminds me of Sinistra Arcobaleno and the likes.

Well, it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. It's not like they would have a chance alone either.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for asking such basic questions, but...

Can someone explain the fault lines between Forza Italia, Popular Alternative, and Brothers of Italy, without using Wikipedia infoboxes?

The former are diehard Berlusconi loyalists, the middle have thrown Berlusconi under the bus to prop up the Letta government in 2013 and since then have been part of all governments. FdI is more nationalist and these days is basically parroting Salvini on immigration and the EU.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just a question for anyone: is Legal Nord still pro-secession or is it just a populist party now?

No, they've basically converted into a generic xenophobic-populist-right party in all but name under Salvini. Although they still do pretty terribly in the South, for obvious reasons.

[Antonio the Sixth]

PD primaries today. Turnout expected to be about 2 million, which is not too bad all considered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's looking like a Renzislide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Still no official results, but the feel is that Renzi should be between 70% and 75%. Orlando around 20%, and Emiliano gets the rest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.

I think the difference there was that UKIP rejected his resignation because they still kinda needed him.

As the PD needs Renzi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice! I love Flawless Beautiful Matteo.

I love how eclectic you are in your political allegiances across countries.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but does this mean Renzi is headed back to the PM position?

Not in the short term at least. Now that he's been re-elected Chairman of the PD with such a mandate, he's certainly the most powerful man in the country. However if he can successfully win next year's election, he'll have quite an authoritative claim on the office as opposed to forcing a PD government to resign again to make way for him during this term.

Basically this. There's no point in Renzi trying to become PM before the elections, but you'll be sure he'll try his damnedest to be at the center of the political game during the election and in its aftermath.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I hope that they will soon get what the Constitutional Court is telling them and make a fair and lasting electoral system instead of (in vain) trying to get around the clear requirements set by the court. Make it full PR and completely open lists, something like a return to the 1946-1993 law.

In principle I agree with you, but in the current context of Italian politics, this would be a recipe for disaster.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The new proposal is probably crap, but I'll take crap as long as it gives us a clear majority in the next election. We can't afford another Grand Coalition.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh Christ. Permanent grand coalition, here we go...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conventional wisdom right now is that the election will be held in October - but that's conditional on the electoral reform actually passing (which ain't done till it's done).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, don't abandon us, Genova...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this is bad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Result of Abruzzo is very impressive.  The Center-Right bloc overcame a 47.1 to 35.8 first round lead to win in the second round. 

Votes for the center-left candidate decreased between the two rounds. This is an obvious case of massive abstention screwing up the results.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right will patch up ties and run together. They always do.

The left will splinter in a thousand pieces. They always do.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, so Musumenci has a majority. Great.

Get ready for Berlusconi'2018.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm confident that MDP will fade into irrelevancy as the campaign goes on. Not that that will help PD much...