IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day! (user search)
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  IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day! (search mode)
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Author Topic: IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!  (Read 81868 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: March 20, 2018, 08:27:24 PM »

Can we take the Great Soundbites War on abortion somewhere else please?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2018, 08:31:29 PM »

Can we take the Great Soundbites War on abortion somewhere else please?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2018, 09:00:36 PM »

Fwiw, both Will and DuPage are about halfway done and Newman leads by 700 votes there. Which means she's likely to net about 1400 votes once these counties are fully counted. In other words, she needs to keep Lipinski's lead in Cook under 1400 votes. His lead there is currently 2600 votes, which means Newman needs to net 1200 votes out of the 1/6th of Cook County that's left. From my quick map, that would require her to lead there by 10 points.

She's probably toast.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2018, 09:09:44 PM »

WTF, Newman now leads Lipinski by 42(!!!) points in Will.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2018, 09:10:33 PM »

WTF, Newman now leads Lipinski by 42(!!!) points in Will.

Yeah 100% sure this is an error.

Yeah, that's my guess as well.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2018, 09:14:20 PM »

Is there any place to double-check the NYT's numbers? I'm still not buying this Will margin.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2018, 09:16:10 PM »


OK, yeah, this is bullsh*t.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2018, 09:17:52 PM »

...and it's just been corrected. Lipinski leads again. Damn.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2018, 11:20:49 PM »

I support Newman but holy moly are some of her other supporters in this thread being massively hypocritical assholes right now.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2018, 08:02:38 PM »

I guess ol' Bernie's endorsement was once more as useful as a fart in a space suit.



Considering Sanders win nearly every precincts, its not a good analysis. I mean...:



The only serious way to look at this would be to see a correlation coefficient between Sanders margin and Newman margin. My guess is it's probably negative but pretty close to zero and not really meaningful.
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