Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Italian right likes to posture in favor of Keynesian deficit spending against EU-sponsored austerity (that was true of Berlusconi in 2013 as well), but usually it comes in the form of either regressive tax policies like Salvini's ridiculous flat tax proposal, or to aid to very specific categories like small business owners or pensioners. Other than that they're as neoliberal as it gets.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conte got 156 votes. 5 short of a majority, but enough, it seems, to live on to fight another day. Hopefully there's still the chance that a few more will join the ranks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based Nencini. Hopefully he takes back his symbol so that Renzi's band of traitors is left without a parliamentary group. That would serve him well.

I mean, Nencini's use of the red carnation symbol and the Socialist name is kind of hilarious itself since he strikes me as to the right of PD (or at least, he tends to ally/form electoral lists with such subjects).

Considering that most of Craxi's people became the leading cadre of Forza Italia, the rump PSI being to the right of PD is far from surprising.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Where do Conte’s sympathies now lie ideologically? Obviously he was originally chosen by the ‘populist coalition’ to lead their government, but to survive the confidence vote he was making appeals to liberals and social democrats. Is he still most closely linked with M5S out of all the parties in his government? Also, does he have any long-term political ambitions or desire to get involved in party politics, and does he intend to try and remain PM or otherwise continue to be active in politics after the next election, or if this government collapses?

1. No one knows
2. For the moment, the answer has to be yes
3. It looks more and more like he has long-term ambitions, but the contours are still very unclear

Only in Italy would it be an open question whether the incumbent Prime Minister has "long-term ambitions" in politics or not!

This is because only in Italy would the Incumbent Prime Minister be someone who before the start of the legislature was a totally random civil servant literally no one in the public had ever heard about.


Also, to bring up an issue I know you care about, you might be pleased (lol) to know that Salvini made some brief pro-life grandstanding Tuesday, saying "We're for defence of life always. My model are crisis pregnancy centres, not abortive pills given for free [?] on the street to anyone [??]", which is about as substantive as a Republican screaming Deficit Bad, but I noted because I can't even remember the last time I had heard about the topic in Italian politics.

The Lega folks in Veneto made the news a few years ago for hosting some kind of pro-life event, but I didn't think Salvini was explicitly on board with it. I guess he's decided he really wants to Americanize Italian political debate in every respect...

I am not sure you are referring to this, but the only thing that comes to my mind is when the 2019 edition of the World Congress of Families was hosted in Verona. It made some news but basically everyone forgot about it soon afterwards. Salvini's speech last Tuesday felt very 'Americanized' in its entirety, but in all likelihood that part was mostly an aside and irrelevant to the Debate [to the dismay of Tommaso Scandroglio and other r a d t r a d s].

I think that's what I was referring to, yeah. It's been a long time and I've mostly blacked it out.

Anyway, if Salvini or Meloni are serious about undermining legal abortion once they (inevitably) get their shot at power, I can only hope Italian women will make them pay a high price for it. This isn't America and it isn't even Poland. We have a broad consensus around safe, legal, subsidized and tightly-regulated abortion. It's not my ideal if I would design it from scratch, but right now upsetting it in any direction would just blow up in everyone's faces.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids

Forgive my black humour pls

True

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also *checks demographic trends* soon there won't be abortions anymore in Italy anyway because people will just stop making kids

Forgive my black humour pls

True

And of course, every government's solution to that is to make patronizing ads scolding women for not having more kids instead of, you know, creating the socio-economic conditions that make family-building possible.

Honestly I am not sure what kind of ads you're referring to.

That was news from back from the Renzi days. I don't remember the details except that it was cringe.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol

It may be part of a "plan" on part of Italia Viva, but I strongly doubt anyone else was intending this (especially the other governing parties - I don't see what they gain out of this). Conte may play 3D chess sometimes, but definitely not 12D chess. And you know, all of Italy's history is sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing.

Yeah, I think each of the parties involved are gambling rather than planning. Some of the gambles might pay off, others will not. We'll find out soon enough which (or will we even? maybe each side finds a way to draw it out as long as possible).

Either way, Salvini ought to be feeling better about his position than he has since the Summer 2019. I hope if we get some type of at least short-term governmental agreement, the parties manage to make a more proportional election law before we go to the polls again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I may be naïve but it seems to me it would be pretty easy for Conte to round up some FI and IV Senator to back his new government.  They would all be too petrified of a snap election where they would lose their seats.  Getting FI onboard seems the way to avoid having IV as the single point of failure for Conte III.

And that's exactly what he's trying to do. However, it appears that right now Berlusconi believe that his political survival requires hugging his right+wing partners as tightly as possible, and he has enough pull to enforce discipline in his own party. This might change though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also totally unrelated but I am enjoying this thread much more than I would have expected when I first entered it (as can be seen in my very first post here), which I attribute to a variety of reasons:

- I am less of a knee-jerk contrarian (and possibly more of a leftist) than I was last August.

- The Lega ilk have not been in the news that much since they stopped being in government, which means I don't have to suffer a bunch of people (foreigners especially) debating iS sAlvIni a FasCisT and other similar things that get to my nerves.

Oh, just you wait until the right wins the next election (which might be very soon). I'm fully prepared to doom for the next 5 years.

- I have in some sense taken control of the thread's day-to-day (sorry, Antonio).

lmao, no worries I'm clearly getting too old for this sh*t, so I guess my time has come to pass the torch to the new generation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Definitely a stupid question but asking those of you who actually know & follow Italian politics on an active basis because I have no earthly ability to even attempt to garner an answer myself: what, in your opinion, is the most likely outcome of all of this?

At this point, I think either they patch things up with Renzi, or we're headed for new elections (which may be delayed slightly with a short-lived "national unity government" taking over for a few months). The possibility of a Conte III government without Renzi but with enough support in the Senate from miscellaneous centrists and party-switchers doesn't seem practicable at the moment, sadly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sergio Mattarella today conferred an explorative mandate to President of the Chamber Roberto Fico (M5S). I doubt it will bring to anything, but in any case, Fico has time till Tuesday to, well, explore.
PD and M5S want Conte. IV keeps saying "we want to have a peaceful debate and find points of convergence bla bla bla". Salvini is calling for new elections, but maybe kinda sorta also for a centre-right government without passing from the ballot.
Mattarella has said that a new government is to be found fast.

Also PD is seriously getting on my nerves with all the appeals to EurOpeisM. Is it so difficult to say "we don't want a right-wing government" instead?

I mean, they are in the uncomfortable situation of needing to court right-wingers to avoid a right-wing government. That does mean some rhetorical appeals to common values are required.

That's not true unless you consider Italia Viva a right-wing party.
But also, I just wish there were a painless way out of the mess.


Totally unrelated but tonight I think I dreamt that Salvini (or some right-winger) was leaving government and that he was preannouncing that in his last rally/interview would have had just one question for the incoming left-wing government, something about gay couples (do you want to pass same-sex marriage? I guess).

Well, that's relatively optimistic.

I once had a dream where elections were coming up and Lega+FdI were guaranteed to win 60%+ of the vote, and the only question was which of the two parties would come out ahead and lead the coalition, so I was preparing to cast a very reluctant vote for FdI. Now that's nightmarish.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fico has thrown in the towel. Renzi and M5S just couldn't find agreements on a number of key points including using the ESM and judicial reform. Honestly, as much as I like to beat on Renzi, it sounds like M5S was equally unwilling to make compromises. Both parties are just not serious about working with the other. It's just sad.

Anyway, Mattarella will now attempt to form a national unity government. His speech today was basically a plea to avoid snap elections, which would paralyze political activity for the next 4 or 5 months at a time when we absolutely need it. We'll have to see if that can work. Berlusconi at least has been open to it before.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Mattarella supposedly meeting with Mario Draghi tomorrow at noon. Draghi has been rumored for months if not years as a potential consensus PM, so, you know, something to watch.

So in order for this to pass, I guess M5S will at least have to abstain? There is no majority if both Lega and M5S vote against, and I guess Salvini will vote against?

Yes, the presumption would be that this government would be supported by every party except Lega and FdI. We're going to have to see if that's actually practicable. On paper, you'd think M5S would hate Draghi's "sinister Eurocrat" background, but in fact they've had some good things to say about him. It's really hard not to given that he almost single-handedly saved Southern Europe from economic implosion.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vote for Draghi for PD&M5SS will be a huge error, to the next election Salvini and Meloni will take 60% without FI; a this point try to do a Conte ter government w/o IV go to Senate if not get the confidence go to elections

Having elections right now would genuinely be really bad for Italy. For economic reasons, and also because the electoral law is absolute trash and needs to be made more proportional.

Get the EU money, vaccinate people, start getting the economy out of the ditch, and enact a proportional system. If we get to January 2022, give us the added bonus of another left-leaning President. Then we can go to vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually we have not a electoral law, the law is for the old number of parliament member
we need at minimum a new law with the new constituencies and districts

Unfortunately, that law was already enacted as a decree a couple months ago. I'm afraid the Rosatellum will be quite operational if government formation fails and we go to news elections.

Again, a potentially stupid question from somebody who doesn't actively pay attention to Italian politics outside of significant moments like this, but just genuinely curious: would Draghi be inclined to keep Conte on-board in a high-up position like foreign minister or something along those lines, or is Conte just done?

That probably depends on M5S. If they 1. are willing to play ball with a Draghi government, and 2. are interested in sticking it out for Conte, then I'd expect Draghi  and other coalition partners to be okay with that. M5S' own behavior, though, is often harder to predict.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.

The worst part about the Rosatellum is that it's not even REALLY a single-member constituency system. You have only one vote that counts for both party lists AND your constituency vote, so if you want to vote for a given party you're locked into supporting their candidate in the relevant constituency. That KILLS THE WHOLE POINT of single-member constituencies, since it means voters can't vote for candidates on their individual merits.

This law is a monstrosity. I'd honestly prefer the Porcellum, as at least it's more honest about what it's doing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes. And I hate it, among other things because come on, what the frock does it mean to have single-member constituencies for the Senate that are almost as large as those for the American House of Representatives? Lmao

Also, the design is hilarious if you consider it was made by a centre-left government. They could have at least tried not to make a Milan Central and a Rome Central Camera constituencies that look perfectly made to waste centre-left votes.

The worst part about the Rosatellum is that it's not even REALLY a single-member constituency system. You have only one vote that counts for both party lists AND your constituency vote, so if you want to vote for a given party you're locked into supporting their candidate in the relevant constituency. That KILLS THE WHOLE POINT of single-member constituencies, since it means voters can't vote for candidates on their individual merits.

This law is a monstrosity. I'd honestly prefer the Porcellum, as at least it's more honest about what it's doing.

I agree, though I don't prefer Porcellum in a million years, and if they hadn't cut the number of members of Parliament - - I would have somewhat liked to keep this law for quite some time, as hideous as it is, because I'm freaking sick of having a new electoral law be written every half decade.

Also *checks all the recommends to my last Italy 2019 project thread* the old constituencies were quite fun.

Honestly, the Mattarellum was a fine system. It had decoupled votes that allowed voters to pick their preferred local candidate, fairly small constituencies, and compensatory PR to ensure that the overall parliament wasn't too disproportional. There was some room for abuse with the shell parties, but it wasn't that big a deal all considered. We could have easily gone back to it in 2018, but nooooo, we had to invent this abomination instead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

AMAZING

[Antonio the Sixth]

#quellavoltacheDraghi ("that time Draghi...") is the new Thing on Italian Twitter.

Among my favourites:
- That time Draghi got a different result from his electronic calculator, and the calculator corrected itself and apologized
- That time Draghi was contacted by a call center and he convinced the call center operator to change bank
- That time Draghi was 5 years old but actually he was already 8 thanks to the interest rates

Then of course every joke about the fact that euro bills printed between 2011 and 2019 have a good Draghi signature on them.

And my favourite of all:
- That time Draghi defeated Saint George lmaooooo

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

AMAZING

PLEASE
PLEASE
I have just realized how to upgrade the best one, I can't believe it:

Government formation without FdI? That time Draghi defeated Saint Giorgia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just thinking this morning what I'd do if I was an Italian leftist. Probably kill myself rather than face the kafkaesque trap they're in of a choice between permanent deflationary politics tied to dead hand Bundesbankers or an incredibly painful economic transition out of the Eurozone that would probably require alliance with literal fascists.

I suppose the current strategy of praying that a pro-fiscal expansion coalition manages to take over Europe has some merit given the other options, but Christ...

Well, hello, I'm and Italian leftist, and while I'm pretty doomer about things I wouldn't necessarily be that doomer. I don't think the barriers for leftist action within the EU are necessarily any worse than those for leftist action in the US. The EU has genuinely changed pretty significantly over the past few years in its attitude to economic policy (Mario Draghi being a big reason why). Of course it's not enough, but it shows there is a way forward there.

And while even as late as 2 years ago I might have felt differently, right now I think it's clear that the threat of fascism is more advanced in the US than it is in Italy. There are a few simple things that could be done that could defuse that threat significantly (mainly, making the electoral system proportional and electing a liberal President), and overall the strength of our institutions as well as the natural entropy of Italian politics makes consolidating power very difficult.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So as of today apparently Grillo suddenly suspended the M5S online vote, but Draghi has what one article called "virtually unconditional" support from PD, Lega, FI, and IV, which of course is itself already a fairly comfortable majority in both houses. What does everyone think the Five Stars will end up doing?

Would Lega provide actual voting support in getting the government in place or just abstain from voting if the public support continues?

It's looking increasingly like they'll not only actively support it, but have their own ministers in it. I have to say I didn't see that coming, but there we are. There's no telling how long that will last, of course.