Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is this an area that was trending right? If so, good result for Bonaccini.

Trends are hard to gauge in a multipolar system like Italy, but right-leaning parties won more votes than left-leaning ones in the EU elections last time. What happened though is less than the right lost ground and more that the left gained votes from M5S.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Almost all the votes are counted, only a few scattered precincts left.

Direct vote:
Bonaccini (Left) 51.4%
Borgonzoni (Right) 43.7%
Benini (M5S) 3.5%

List vote (counting those that got more than 2%):
PD 34.7%
Lega 31.9%
FdI 8.6%
Left-aligned indy list 5.8%
M5S 4.7%
Left-aligned indy list 3.8%
FI 2.6% (lol)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again, I feel, certain elements within the media have chosen to adopt a fairly unrealistic yardstick to measure the success of the hard right

The thing is, that's the yardstick Salvini chose for himself. He deliberately hyped up this election as the people getting ready to send this government packing, and basically took over the Lega campaign (completely sidelining poor Borgonzoni, who at this point probably regrets it). He exuded confidence about winning it (probably based on the right's real track record of outperforming polls). When you set the expectations so high for yourself, you can't complain that what would otherwise have been a decent result is spun into a setback.

I assure you though, no one in Italy is saying that Salvini is done or anything like that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing that's true and should be noted is that Bonaccini seems to have benefited from a significant personal vote. The lists that supported him only got about 48% of the vote, but he got almost 52%. Some of it is tactical voting by M5Sers (the M5S candidate got 1.5 points less than the M5S list) but many right-wingers also seem to have crossed over to support him. He has a solid record as ER President, with the region having one of the highest growth and lowest unemployment of the country. So in the end local factors probably mattered just as much as the anti-Salvini mobilization. It's kind of a John Bel Edwards situation where a party tried to nationalize the race to beat a popular incumbent and failed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, I'm aware that many people only vote for the presidency ballot and not for the lists. And sure, a significant part of it is low-propensity left-leaning voters bothering to cross out Bonaccini's name but not a list logo, but I don't think it's crazy to suggest that a few of them are people who are nationally right-wing but thought Bonaccini was the better candidate locally. It makes perfect sense given everything else we know about how this campaign went down (Borgonzoni being such a weak candidate that Salvini basically locked her away to run her campaign himself). If we want to measure the "real" national political mood in Emilia, the truth is probably somewhere in between the list and personal vote.


Anyway, here's some hard data to draw your own conclusion from. Election results of the 2018 parliamentary, 2019 European, and 2020 regional elections in both regions (president and list for ER; in Calabria there's only one vote). I included LeU on the "left" side but not the more extreme far-left lists.



Left-right swing from the 2018 elections:
- ER (president) +5.6
- ER (list) +0.5
- Calabria -12.9

Left-right swing from the 2019 elections:
- ER (president) +12.5
- ER (list) +7.4
- Calabria -2.8

The Calabria results are scary, but they can probably be safely dismissed given the low turnout and the peculiarity of local issues. Calabria has kicked out every incumbent government since the Second Republic and seems to largely just be disaffected from politics in general (see also M5S's results in 2018). The ER numbers are more meaningful, although again the question is which numbers do you use. Either way, there's definitely been an upswing from the EU elections, but it's unclear whether there has been one from the 2018 election (where, as a reminder, the right was 11 points ahead of the left).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Interesting statistics. That's good to know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated the title with the next major electoral event. The referendum to approve the M5S' much-desired constitutional reform to reduce the number of MPs will be held at the end of next month. People expect it to pass easily (voters hate politicians, etc.) but with the government (and especially M5S) so unpopular, you never know.

I won't be participating in this thread much until then, though, so keep having fun without me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The referendum is postponed

Oh, great.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lombardy and a bunch of nearby provinces now under near-complete lockdown.

Well that escalated quickly.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the Italian government seems to have decided to go all in. Interestingly, both the majority and the opposition seems to be in agreement for once.

I'm not sure what to think of it. I'm not on the ground obviously so I can't judge the situation, but if I was on the ground and in an area currently unaffected by the virus, I'd be pretty mad to be completely grounded for weeks over this. It might or might not be effective at stopping the virus from spreading (which, even then, would only delay it), but the human and economic consequences will be far from pleasant (and we're talking about a country that has had no meaningful growth in a decade).

There should be a happy medium between this and the utter carelessness and incompetence of the T***p administration.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nobody in Italy is thinking about electoral politics at the moment (well, I'm sure the politicians are, but they're making an effort to hide it at least). The numbers we're seeing at the moment are meaningless and will almost certainly change as the situation does. And of course, there's no way to hold any elections at the moment. So all political talk at the moment is baseless speculation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The regional and local elections will probably be postponed to October, fwiw.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

Oh wow, do I really have such an illustrious reputation? I'm honored! I really haven't given this thread the attention it deserves, even before I left, but I'm hoping to change that in the next few days. It will be a useful distraction from what's happening here.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

Oh, congrats!! That's a great commitment, especially right now.

What do you think of the election organization where you are? I've heard that in general things seem to be going fairly well, but it might feel differently on the ground.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!

The technical benefits of getting more deliberation (fixing mistakes, making sure that a law is considered carefully) can be achieved without giving the Senate a veto power over legislation that potentially leads to a situation of total gridlock. Admittedly, this is less of a problem now than it used to be because the voting systems for the House and Senate are pretty closely aligned (it was the electoral discrepancy of the Porcellum that created such a complete mess in 2006-2008 and 2013-2018). Still, perfect bicameralism is generally a terrible idea. It's no coincidence that the countries that practice it tend to have the most dysfunctional politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for flatly cutting the number of MP, it is indeed a pointless, demagogic move. It is true that the "quality of representation" argument is a little dulled by the fact that we have a voting system that doesn't really allow voters to choose their MPs, but that's no excuse to make matters even worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.

Yeah, no disagreement here. Although I despise the Rostellum almost as much - such a disingenuous system that pretends to be something it's not and ends up with the worst of both worlds. The Mattarellum was tolerable I guess, but tbh at this point I'd be willing to go back to the First Republic (not that it was perfect, far from it).

I like perfect bicameralism instead. I can concede that unicameralism may be better but having a half-assed Senate would make me puke.

I don't understand why you're so opposed to imperfect bicameralism. There are some forms of it that are pretty silly (like the British version, lmao) but I think in Germany for example it works pretty well. I certainly don't mind plain old unicameralism, though (as long as it's with a sufficiently proportional system).

In any case, stamping ballots is pretty cool for such a repetitive task. The hammering noise of the stamp feels good. We have almost finished for today I think now.

Congrats!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Naples was Caldoro's best province in 2015 (I know, I was surprised too), and Salerno is De Luca Country par excellence. So yeah, my guess in a region like Campania is that the favorite son effect is likely to be strong. We'll see soon enough, of course.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey folks, I'm already up. Of course the counting is less than halfway in for the referendum and has barely started for the regionals. Oh well.

The writing is clearly on the wall for the referendum. It's going to be Yes above 65%, with a decent chance of above 70%. That's definitely an underperformance, though not as big of one as I was hoping for.

The first regional projections are hopeful, but of course we have to wait and see. Fingers crossed that Emiliano can pull it off in Puglia too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

I don't think Zingaretti should have that much trouble because of it, as long as PD hold up decently in the regional elections. He did his job out of loyalty to the government, but it was always known that there was some opposition from within the PD base. With Yes winning nationally, I don't think there will be much interest in relitigating the issue, within the PD or anywhere else.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First SWG projection has Emiliano up 9(!!!), 47-38. If that holds, I think they can pop out the champagne at the Nazareno.

It also has De Luca at 67%. What a nice projection.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The relatively weak Yes votes in Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, was that to be expected? Like the latter in particular doesn't strike me as the kind of place that would stand out in that direction?

It wasn't particularly expected, although it makes sense if you imagine a lot of Lega voters voting No to try to embarrass the government. Then again, the Lombardy vote is on par with the national average, so maybe the explanation is not so easy. And TAA is over 70% Yes for some reason.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tuscany's going to go to a runoff with these numbers, correct? Just want to confirm/remind myself of things.

No, the runoff only applies if no candidate reaches 40%.

Largely due to Südtirol by the looks of it; although the SVP at least appear to have not backed either side so I'm not sure what would be going on there

Guess the crypto-Austrians just love the idea of cutting some dead weight in Rome. Especially combined with Battista's point about relative representation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

New SWG Puglia projection has Emiliano at 46 and Fitto at 38. Slightly less than the first one, but not enough to make a difference.