Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

nice

Welcome to the forum!

Are you Calabrese or Sicilian? I'm one of the few people who know what your username means, and I highly approve.

[Antonio the Sixth]

nice

Welcome to the forum!

Are you Calabrese or Sicilian? I'm one of the few people who know what your username means, and I highly approve.

thank you!!
I'm Calabrese, from Gerace.

Oh wonderful!! My father is Calabrese, from Melito (I've lived most of my life in France and currently I'm in California as my avatar suggests, but I still feel strongly Italian). It's nice to have a close compatriot on here.

[Antonio the Sixth]

YOUR REVOLUTION IS OVER, CECCARDI! CONDOLENCES! THE FASH LOST! THE FASH WILL ALWAYS LOSE!

If it wasn't too long, I would change my display name to "In the privacy of the polling booth, God sees you - Salvini doesn't".

Great minds think alike!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The man, the myth, the legend, the one and only VINCENZO DE LUCA speaking now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, here's my #analysis, a little belatedly (sorry, it's been another busy day - been having a lot of those lately).

The biggest surprise for me was Puglia. Honestly, before the election my guts were telling me Emiliano was toast (though I didn't say so out of scaramanzia). He had everybody against him, both M5S (because the local M5S leadership is full of idiots) and IV (because Renzi and Emiliano are bitter enemies), and a right-wing united around a strong candidate. All that while being a divisive figure in a region with a right-leaning history at a time where the right is still polling high nationwide. It was enough of a surprise that the polls were so competitive, but to win (with about the same percentage he got in 2015, and the same margin that Giani and Bonaccini won by in the red regions)... well, that's nothing short of remarkable. I guess my perception of him as an impressive politician was correct all along. There is a lot to quibble about the other races this cycle, but this is a clear-cut victory for the left and we have every right to celebrate it. And while talks of trends in other regions are indeed greatly exaggerated, I think there might be some truth to it here. This used to be one of the most conservative regions in the South, and yet the left has been able to hold it down for 15, through two separate waves of right-wing ascendancy. This is starting to look meaningful.

Toscana is nice. I was feeling a bit better about it going in, due to the precedent in E-R. It's easier to believe that there's a resilient leftist vote there that will come home on election day (to keep up the US parallel, think of how Connecticut or Oregon flirt with electing Republicans but always come around for Dems in the end). I was still worried, of course, especially because I'd heard Ceccardi being hyped up as this great leghista ace in the hole since before the EU election. Well, the hype turned out to be just that. You know the most hilarious thing? Ceccardi, a symbol of a Lega "rooted deep in the territories" of former red bastions... lost the town she had been the mayor of, Cascina. And not by a hair either: by a whopping 10 points. Turns out those who knew her best didn't like her much anymore. The internal provincial patterns were very interesting, and aptly if colorfully described by Battista. The results in the Siena province are especially dear to my heart because this is basically my favorite place in Italy. It's glad to see there is a tradition of rural leftism that is still alive and kicking. Anyway, winning Tuscany by just 8 points is still an underperformance, of course, but like E-R, it's a marked recovery since 2019 and even possibly since 2018.

Campania and Veneto mirror each other, and in a way it's really nice to see. Those are highly abnormal election results for Italy - we've almost never elections for offices higher than mayors turn into blowouts. But those abnormal elections took place in abnormal times, abnormal times where the connection between sound policies and saved lives is clearer than ever. I'm no fan of Zaia, but there's no denying that his COVID policies were a resounding success. Veneto was the only region to adopt systematic testing from the very beginning, and despite being one of the earliest epicenters of the pandemics, saw its healthcare system weather the crisis successfully. By June, it had less than a quarter the death rate of Lombardy, and less than half that of Piedmont and E-R. Whatever you think of Zaia as a leader, this is a remarkable achievement, and it makes voters' gratitude very understandable.

The same story goes in Campania. De Luca went viral, in classic De Luca fashion, for calling on cops to come at the people who flouted the lockdown with flamethrowers. But it was more than just bluster: De Luca consistently put the health and safety of Campanians first in his policies, and was always a voice calling for stricter and more severe policies to prevent the spread of the epidemic (unfortunately, the national government didn't always listen to him, and that's part of why we're in the middle of a second wave now). Once again, voters saw all that and they were grateful. Before the pandemic, De Luca was down 10 points in the polls - he won by over 50. That has to be one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of democratic elections worldwide. It's really nice to see that sometime, plain old good government can make a difference in an election. And thank God for it - now we can look forward to 5 more years of wonderful rhetorical flourishes and merciless eviscerations on the part of this titan of modern politics. My King Is Alive indeed!

Marche is of course a bitter pill to swallow. Battista is right that it was never as red as the other Red Regions, but it was part of the same continuum and is one of those more remote, sparsely-populated places where left-wing support has been eroding. It is quite telling that the left still controls 5 of the 9 "big" regions (those with more than 5% of the population), but not a single one of the "small" regions. And to add insult to injury, the winner is a full-blown neofascist. Sadly that doesn't seem to be a serious flaw to voters anymore... Well, at least the 12-point margin is not quite the 20-point margin in Umbria, and it remains to be seen how durable those shifts are.

Liguria is a really bitter pill to swallow. Toti was barely elected in 2015 due to a stupid left-wing split, and he's fundamentally an unserious lightweight. There's no real good-government motivation here: Liguria weathered the COVID outbreak pretty badly and Toti gave a poor example when he was caught multiple times not wearing his mask when he should have. Pundits say the rebuilding of the Genoa bridge that collapsed tow years ago bolstered his campaign, and that might well be true, but it's pretty undeserved given that most of the work was done by the mayor (who is right-wing himself) and the national government. Anyway, Toti won by 17 points, the biggest win for the right in the region in the modern era. I have no idea what this result means in the long run, but I have to hope there's no long-term trend at work. Liguria is historically basically a Red Region, and it must stay that way.

Valle d'Aosta... is Valle d'Aosta. As Parochial Boy points out, there was a big corruption scandal there that engulfed the incumbent regional council (indeed, that forced its dissolution, since it would normally have had 3 more years to go). And now Lega is the first party here, the only genuinely good result of the night for Salvini. Still, since the political system there still works based on good old (normal, sane) First Republic rules, there's no telling what that will entail concretely. I'm kind of hoping that a majority can be cobbled up without relying on Lega votes (of course that would mean relying on some of the disgraced incumbent parties, but that's life). I still have family ties in Valle d'Aosta and I'd hate for Lega to gain a foothold in this weird remote corner of the country.

The referendum results are exactly what we all expected. No big surprises there. Very disappointing to see Italians abroad vote for it even more massively than residents - we are usually less into populist bullsh*t than other Italians. On the other hand, I guess Italians abroad don't have much reason to care about their connection to their MP. Oh well. Either way, the implications are mixed. We know the bad news, but the good news is that this makes it imperative to pass a new electoral law. Until a new law is pass, I'm not even sure if it's constitutionally possible to have elections right now, which is. Quite the can of worms. This means that 1. there's no chance of the government collapsing any time soon, and 2. when a new electoral law is passed, it's hard not to believe that it would be largely a return to some form of PR. Which is exactly what we need right now to ensure that Salvini never gains the "full power" he so craves. So, I guess there's a silver linin to every cloud.

So that's it, those are my ramblings, if anyone cares.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To continue the points Battista and Palandio made, here's a comparison of Toti's scores in 2015 and 2020:
+22 in Imperia province (43% to 65%)
+19 in Savona province (40% to 59%)
+24 in Genoa city (28% to 52%)
+22 in Genoa province, city excluded (37% to 59%)
+18 in La Spezia province (33% to 51%)

So yeah, here as well there's been a stronger trend in Genoa proper than anywhere else. My guess would be that this was all about the bridge reconstruction, yeah. It's really frustrating, but I guess not particularly surprising. Oh well. Glad to see that La Spezia is still the most left-wing province! I guess this does bode reasonably well for the future.

Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Campania
Centre-left: 33 seats (+2)
Centre-right: 11 seats (-2)
M5S: 7 seats (=)

....so De Luca's coalition somehow got a smaller share of the seats than his share of the vote. What kind of imbecile wrote this electoral law??

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

He is an avowed neoliberal, the "Downsizing Democracy" ideology par excellence. I'm not surprised.

But no, 1 MP for 200K people is not nearly enough. Even 1 per 100K is not enough. The ideal would be 1 every 1000 or so (which is of course impracticable in Italy, but there's no excuse for not having 600-700 MPs at the very least).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Okay I really don't get the argument for "no" on the referendum. Anything more than 300 representatives or so seems absurd. What's the point of having all of them?

300 representatives can't possibly "represent" jack sh*t in a country of 60 million inhabitants. I mean, granted, it's not like 600 representatives were doing a great job to begin with, but this will just make it worse.

That's 1/200,000 residents. Which is absolutely fine. I'd target one rep per 200,000-500,000 people as ideal in most countries. Places like the UK, with more than one MP/100,000 people are just absurd.

You know that's funny, seeing Blairite of all posters taking the muh rash populist position. If GMac comes here too arguing for No we may as well lock the thread lmao.

He is an avowed neoliberal, the "Downsizing Democracy" ideology par excellence. I'm not surprised.

But no, 1 MP for 200K people is not nearly enough. Even 1 per 100K is not enough. The ideal would be 1 every 1000 or so (which is of course impracticable in Italy, but there's no excuse for not having 600-700 MPs at the very least).

I mean I get why you are not surprised, but I found that ironic because I guess the closest Italian equivalent to neoliberals is the muh city centre bobo "PD is the party of ZTL's" crowd and they went pretty hard for No.

The Italian liberal center still has more reverence for old-fashioned concepts of democratic representation. It has fully been neoliberalized when it comes to economics, but still holds a bit more of a traditionalist bent based on the values of the 1948 constitution. By contrast, American (and British, and honestly, probably the French too) neoliberals couldn't give less of a sh*t about meaningful democratic representation. To them, democracy just means voters get to "buy" a government as a product and get to passively "consume" the policies for the rest of the term.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To me, the ideal electoral system would be PR in small constituencies (5-10 seats) with preference voting and a tiered compensation system like Denmark's to ensure overall national proportionality. I would ideally still hope for no more than 10k people per constituency, but of course that wouldn't be feasible in Italy. You could have at most probably 150 constituencies (for a parliament of around 1000) which would therefore represent around 400k people, and hopefully within those constituencies some degree of local representation. That would be far from perfect, but probably the best we can get right now.

Of course I would get rid of the Senate, so 1000 total MPs wouldn't be much of an increase from the 950 or so we currently have. Having them work together in a single house would require logistical changes, but Italy already has a strong committee system, so the infrastructure is already there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fantastic maps, thank you!

Interesting to see No's strength in triveneto (aside from the Austrians) but not in the rest of the North, even in very right-wing areas. Not surprising that Yes' strongest areas were in the South, but some of the patterns within the South are interesting (weaker around the Gulf of Taranto and the Strait of Messina, stronger in more inland areas).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So all those very light blue places actually didn't vote?

You mean the light grey places? Lol

Yes, they were regions which had no regional election this cycle.

Many would genuinely describe that as light blue-grey, tbf

So what is the dark grey bit in the NW corner?

Valle d'Aosta, which I left "N/A" because 1. the president of the region is not directly elected 2. there are strong regionalist parties which make for a different political system than the rest of Italy.

Plus it's plain old PR, without coalitions. Lega topped the polls there for what it's worth, but with just 23%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wow, yeah, surprisingly good results for the left. And proof that the M5S-PD alliance can work in some cases (although it's still to be seen if it's nationally viable). That's nice to see. Let's hope the government doesn't squander all its political capital by being unable to do anything for the next 3 years... (I know, fat chance)

and lmao @ the glacial pace of the Italian judiciary

[Antonio the Sixth]

Changed the title to the general mood of the day. Will update it when we have a confirmed date for the Calabria election (it's quite possible it will get delayed given how bad the situation is getting).

As for Santelli, I'm sorry to see her go this way. Her bio makes her sound like your standard Berlusconi hack, but that obviously doesn't mean she deserved this, and on a personal level she was apparently quite friendly. Rest in peace.

In general news, yep, the second wave is on. I'll have updated charts of how bad things are getting at some point next week, but in terms of case growth we've gone all the way back to the  darkest hours of March-April (thankfully, the growth in hospitalizations is far slower, but they're still starting to severely stress the healthcare systems of some regions).

Legendary Badass Vincenzo De Luca, whose region is the second worst hit (the worst is once again Lombardy), has taken action and decided to close down schools and universities. Obviously he's getting criticized by the feckless clowns who run the national government, but I'm sure he'll answer in kind during his weekly briefing tomorrow. He continues to prove he's one of the few politicians in this country who has what it takes to save his constinuents' lives.

[Antonio the Sixth]

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Yesterday Nathan wrote this - I am not sure he had Ceccardi in mind but I actually think it fits her well.

"political Catholicism is when you're right-wing; the more right-wing you are, the more Catholic it is " nonsense-mongering

> Was accused of not registering civil unions
> So much a defender of the traditional family that she lives with her partner but they are not married or anything

> https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=405839.0

Ayy lmao

CONDOLENCES! AGAIN!

CHECKMATE CATTOLEGHISTI

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well since this would get a lot of "who dat?" in reply if I posted it on Off-Topic Board, and since there is not a separate thread for Italian General Discussion, I will post this here:

RIP Absolute Legend Gigi Proietti

https://www.repubblica.it/spettacoli/people/2020/11/02/news/morto_gigi_proietti-272698267

This is really saddening, I think he was my favourite living Italian actor. Fittingly for someone born on the Day of the Dead, he died on his (80th) birthday...



Today is also the 45th anniversary of Pier Paolo Pasolini's death. Pasolini strikes me as someone who must be a favourite of threadmaster Antonio.

I love Pasolini, yeah. I don't think I'd enjoy all of his movies (*coughSalòcough*) but there are many I like, and he was a fascinating and much-needed voice in his time. F**k the Italian deep state for murdering him.

I'm honestly not too familiar with Gigi Proietti (I'm sure I've seen him in movies but I didn't really register him), but RIP FF.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm guessing this is coming from Zingaretti's enemies? They're usually the ones who try hard to get him to accept a new job.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fascinating maps, thank you!! All that's missing are swing/trend maps to compare with 2015. That could have taught us a lot about what's happening here.

Also, worth noting that we've got a bit of a government crisis on our hands. Nothing as flashy as what's going on in the US, of course but Renzi seems pretty much dead set on toppling Conte, and if that happens nobody knows what comes next.

I know, my father talks about that a lot (because he has an irrational hatred for Conte), but I find Renzi a rather unpredictable character, so I'm not expecting the government to fall in, say, X days.
My dad's fever dream seems to be some sort of centre-right-ish government including everyone save from M5S (and maybe PD?) but that's definitely not going to happen. Personally I don't have any expectations, but I would rather not have parliamentary elections in 2021. Certainly we can only have them in winter/spring because the second half of the year will be covered by Mattarella's "white semester".

lmao, your dad wants a government that goes from PD to Lega? Yeah, fat chance.

Agreed that Renzi is quite unpredictable, but he really seems serious about this. He's had many chances to deescalate the conflict and he's only ramped it up. I think he's an egotistical blowhard, obviously, although he has some valid points (Conte has been a little cavalier in his governing style since the pandemic began, and taking the ESM money is a no-brainer). Above all else, though, you're right, having an election right now is Not a good idea. I'm still kinda, sorta hoping we can enact a more proportional electoral system before going to new elections, though this is exactly what Renzi is opposing. And of course, we need to elect Mattarella's successor. Throughout the Second Republic, the right has never been able to elect a President - and I want this streak to continue.

My dad just wants to see M5S (and Conte) nuked out of orbit. He hates PD too but less, and the right-wing/far-right but even less.

Renzi is indeed an egotistical blowhard, although I have to admit I respect the ability to con people he showed in 2014 and 2015 (remember when PD took 41% at the Europeans? F***ing insane) even if it didn't last. He seems serious but I don't know what his endgame exactly is. He's not gonna bring IV from 3% to relevancy if he topples the government.
I hope for a serious proportional system and not this mess too. I don't know why Renzi opposes that, but it seems to me that the people proposing majoritarianism are always something something neoliberal/lolbertarian/Moderate Hero. I think Mattarella's successor is up in the air in any case, and I am not that concerned with Presidential elections, but I see the merits of your point.
One streak I personally don't want to break is that of having parliamentary elections in the first half of the year, but that's just me.

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To Renzi's credit, he's been a consistent advocate for majoritarianism, even now when it's not in his political self-interest. Either way, he was wrong then (although I admit at the time I was convinced by him) and he's very wrong now.

And to me, elections ought to be in late Spring. May and June are election months. February and March feel a little too early for my tastes, but I guess at least it's not something really dumb like November.

Oh so you were once conned by Renzi too? Proving my point.

yeah... Well all make mistakes in our youth - you're young enough you probably have a few ahead of you.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As we know in this country, political con men can be highly persuasive.

Oh come on, there's a big gap between falling for Renzi's shtick and falling for BoJo's. Don't put me in the same category.

Why is the Pope attacking the leader of PD?

Is he? I can't find any news about it (and Italian news studiously cover everything the Pope says or does).

[Antonio the Sixth]

@Antonio moment for a thread title update I guess

Here you go.


I won't hazard a prediction otherwise. I have no idea what Renzi's endgame is supposed to be, but I doubt he'll be able to convince PD and M5S to get rid of Conte and agree to all his demands. Somehow I have trouble seeing it come to snap elections either - it would be pure insanity in the current situation. No idea what else can happen, but in Italian politics, you should often expect the unexpected.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hyperbolically speaking it could be argued that the governments during Italy's First Republic were very stable in the sense that it was always the same parties involved and the general outlook was always the same*. And exactly this led to a very short average survival time for each cabinet. If things will remain almost the same anyways then why not topple the government as soon as there is the opportunity for a litte gain?

*There were of course some significant developments over time like the compromesso storico, the rise of Craxi's Socialists, etc.

Yeah, the First Republic governments were fairly stable in terms of the policies they pursued, even if which specific people pursued them changed all the time. And this long-term policy stability allowed them to advance long-term projects in a way Italian governments have just stopped doing since the 1990s (the last one was really entry into the Euro).

[Antonio the Sixth]

So Conte has until Tuesday to find enough "responsible" (or "treasonous", depending on your political inclinations) MPs who would defect from their parties and form a new parliamentary group to buffer his majority without Renzi's support. There is a proud tradition of past governments cobbling together governments that way, of course, but no guarantee.

Yesterday, it looked like he was on track to find them. Today, it's been less clear, and there are talks of renewed negotiations with IV instead. Hard to know what to make of it. The situation remains very fluid, as they say.