Winner of the popular vote loses the election: 2008 (user search)
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  Winner of the popular vote loses the election: 2008 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Winner of the popular vote loses the election: 2008  (Read 1800 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: March 26, 2009, 06:18:42 AM »

Subtract 3.63% from Obama in every state and add 3.63% to McCain in every state:



What do you think?

Do these maps show what were the deciding states? If so, then what were they?

Feel free to post the results of the same scenario in other elections.

Colorado would go to McCain if he gets an 1,7% margin : it would give an Electoral College tie. But the election would have been decided by the House, who was in majority democrat => Obama wins.
In fact, McCain needs to win either Colorado and Iowa to win : it means a 2,29% lead. Conclusion : Democrats have a very important structural advantage.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,309
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2009, 05:19:41 AM »

So, CO would go to McCain if, in addition to the 3.63% gain already mentioned, he were to gain an additional 0.85% (with Obama losing an additional 0.85%), for a total change of 4.48% for each candidate (and as Antonio V said, the additional swing would be 0.85% * 2 = 1.7%).

Yeah, poor situation for the GOP. Wink
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