US with French parties

[Antonio the Sixth]

Really great. BTW, do you plan to make a 1st Round map ? I guess it would be even more interesting.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh, well... sorry.
Great news anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump !

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very nice. MN, IA and MO will be interesting to see.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is really quite fantastic, Hashemite!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why would Gaullism be so strong in Dakotas ?

vvv

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You mean populism in the style of Bryan ? I don't think it could still play in the 1958-1974 years.

The silver standard (which Bryan advocated) would be extremely unpopular after 1900.

Yeah, but by looking to the election maps it seems that Dakotas definitively abandoned populism in the 1940s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Frêche would fit perfectly as a Dixiecrat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, it's back !!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shouldn't Aubry be somewhere in the Rust Belt ? I'm thinking to MI or PA.
And for Frêche, Arizona could fit well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shouldn't Aubry be somewhere in the Rust Belt ? I'm thinking to MI or PA.

The Lille area is historically based on textiles, so Lowell or some other Industrial Revolution town in MA fits better. She's not from the coalfields.

Seems that once again you know things far better than me. I'm not surprised however, I expected to be wrong but was still interested in learning something new.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Next up is Oklahoma, where I have some fun surprises planned.

We'll, I guess we will have a result similar to west virginia : a very conservative State which you'll give to the PS because of its populism.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Next up is Oklahoma, where I have some fun surprises planned.

We'll, I guess we will have a result similar to west virginia : a very conservative State which you'll give to the PS because of its populism.

'Populism' (which is a word I hate) doesn't explain WV nor will it explain Oklahoma. There's some demographic factors, economic trends and socio-economic factors which explain it better than anything else.

Of course I hate this word too.
However, in this case I meant that it's a state with some latent left-wing rhetoric on economic issues, but combined with a solid conservatism on social issues resulting in huge republican margins. Of course the explanation must be socio-economical, but don't forget the importance of political views.

[Antonio the Sixth]

but don't forget the importance of political views.

You bring up a good point which I don't think I addressed sufficiently: in rl, the Republicans obviously won many poor white (Southerners) over by exploiting social conservatism and wedge issues, partly a result of the Southern Strategy and partly because of the influence of the evangelical movement. In a setup where the US has a French system (the basis of which is a US where the word 'socialist' is not a swear word people run away from, more the equivalent of what Americans stupidly call 'populism'), the major parties would be much less likely to shamelessly exploit wedge social issues. The UMP as a whole wouldn't, though a candidate Sarkozy might to cozy up with the MPF electorate in the South (though he'd already appeal to them with simple populist rhetoric). The MPF would be the only major party to use such rhetoric (the FN *might* do so as well) and it would have worked to some extent, but really, far less voters would have been bought to vote on social issues rather than economic issues.

Yes, it seems pretty right. Though of course, I think the French situation is trending towards a more and more "Americanish" right, with a growing expoitation of minor thematics in order to avoid difficulties about things that really matter. Of course these issues are not the same in France as in the US (immigration and criminality would replace social conservatism and religion). But anyways, if you translate this situation in America, I think States like WV or OK would be the typical places solidly trending right in 2007, and even more in 2012. Of course, such recent trend wouldn't be enough for sarkozy to carry them, but IMO he wouldn't poll bad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Seems totally right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, please do France with US Parties ! It would be great, especially if you include the little parties which are irrelevant there but could weigh a lot in France (Greens and maybe Libertarians, not to forget people like Perot).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

Seconded. It's time for Texas.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, NM loosk very interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting one. I'd agree that Sarkozy would have barely won the state in 2007, even though by a close margin (which would make NM a perfect swing state).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting one. I'd agree that Sarkozy would have barely won the state in 2007, even though by a close margin (which would make NM a perfect swing state).

actually, it would be less Socialist than it is Democratic irl (at least since 1960) because of the political affiliation of the Spanish vote. Giscard, por ejemplo, would have won it in 1981 (though Mitterrand would presumably have won it rather easily in 1988) and Chirac would have won it in 1995.

Indeed, you're right. Though considering the State's trends and Sarkozy's lack of appeal there, I think he could have performed less well there than nationwide.

[Antonio the Sixth]

bump please!

^^

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nice to see this restarted.

I really long for the West Coast now...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very interesting as always ?

For the remaining States, I'm guessing socialists would win OR, WA and HI, Sarkozy would carry AZ in a landslide, NV easily and CA narrowly. AK is a mistery for me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great map Hash ! I long forward seeing those of PS, UMP, Greens, and the more the merrier !

As for Arizona, I'd have personally seen it voting for Sarkozy above 60% (this is the kind of State where PS should underperform democrats), but that seems fine anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for Arizona, I'd have personally seen it voting for Sarkozy above 60% (this is the kind of State where PS should underperform democrats), but that seems fine anyways.

Too many Hispanics, natives and bobo types there. Brewer didn't even get 55% in 2010 and McCain won 58% against a semi-serious opponent. 55-56% to Sarkozy is being kind, actually.

Well, Brewer is even more insane than Sarkozy and McCain was particularly weak in this cycle. I think 55% could fit for Sarkozy in a tied election, but remember that he won by 53% nationwide, so 55% would become 52%.