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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Results by MSA (search mode)
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Author Topic: Results by MSA  (Read 13806 times)
Badger
badger
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Posts: 40,415
United States


« on: September 22, 2009, 12:09:45 PM »

Sacramento Obama: 55%-43%

Greater Cleveland: Obama 62%-37% (Note: this MSA alone gave Obama his victory margin in Ohio)

I don't think any Democrat has won Ohio minus Cleveland MSA since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  In fact I was surprised that even if you took Cuyahoga County, Obama would have narrowly won Ohio.  That being said, both Gore and Kerry would have probably won Ohio if you took the Cincinnati MSA out so both sort of cancel each other out.  Now true most of Western, Central, Southern Ohio, and Columbus Suburbs also tend to go Republican, however the Democrats usually win the blue collar cities in the Northeastern part (i.e. Youngstown, Warren etc.), Toledo, as well as are generally competitive in the areas along Lake Erie.


Actually I recall reading that Obama won the Columbus MSA (defined as Franklin and all contiguous counties) by 52-47, an inverse to Kerry/Bush results. Franklin County continues to switch hard Democratic, and the surrounding counties are not as overwhelmingly Democratic as in past decades. It's a good future sign for the Ohio Democratic Party as its also one of the growing areas of the state.
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Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,415
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2009, 05:58:14 PM »

Sacramento Obama: 55%-43%

Greater Cleveland: Obama 62%-37% (Note: this MSA alone gave Obama his victory margin in Ohio)

I don't think any Democrat has won Ohio minus Cleveland MSA since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  In fact I was surprised that even if you took Cuyahoga County, Obama would have narrowly won Ohio.  That being said, both Gore and Kerry would have probably won Ohio if you took the Cincinnati MSA out so both sort of cancel each other out.  Now true most of Western, Central, Southern Ohio, and Columbus Suburbs also tend to go Republican, however the Democrats usually win the blue collar cities in the Northeastern part (i.e. Youngstown, Warren etc.), Toledo, as well as are generally competitive in the areas along Lake Erie.


Actually I recall reading that Obama won the Columbus MSA (defined as Franklin and all contiguous counties) by 52-47, an inverse to Kerry/Bush results. Franklin County continues to switch hard Democratic, and the surrounding counties are not as overwhelmingly Democratic as in past decades. It's a good future sign for the Ohio Democratic Party as its also one of the growing areas of the state.

True, Obama won the Columbus MSA, but the Columbus suburbs still went for McCain albeit by smaller margins than Obama won the city proper.  The Cincinnati suburbs went heavily for McCain, over 60% thus despite losing the city proper badly, he easily won the MSA.  Cleveland suburbs on average favoured Obama although not by the massive margins he won in Cleveland proper.  McCain did win a few suburbs, although I believe far more went for Obama than McCain.
In fact Obama did better in the Columbus suburbs than any Democratic presidential candidate did in modern times (outside LBJ maybe). He won a significant number of Franklin County suburbs and, as you said, reduced the traditional GOP margins in most others substantially.
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