KS: Rasmussen: After primary, Sen. Roberts (R) in trouble

[Badger]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

Is there an election since 2006 where Republicans haven't been "riled up"? The race is hardly over of course, but surely you too see Davis being over 50% in a Rassy poll as a sign of serious danger?

KS is a true (Atlas) blue state, which is why Roberts should indeed win by a decent margin (as noted, his lead will grow once the butthurt from the primary passes and Wolf supporters inevitably come home. The fact that Taylor is only at 40% is telling), a governor's race doesn't carry the same partisanship as federal races even in 2014. That's especially so in a state like KS with a very strong and recent practice of moderate Republicans and independents broadly backing Democrats for state office.

[Badger]

Right.

Back in the real world, Roberts wins comfortably and Brownback wins fairly easily, too.

Why should we expect Brownback to win easily?

The GOP is going to be riled up come November. In a state like Kansas, they're going to be very hard pressed to give the Dems a pick up unless Brownback was on the verge of going to prison. Partisan and ideological allegiances will mean too much in these safe states.

Is there an election since 2006 where Republicans haven't been "riled up"? The race is hardly over of course, but surely you too see Davis being over 50% in a Rassy poll as a sign of serious danger?

Surely you don't think Republicans were more motivated than Dems to vote in a year like 2008...

And turnout in 2012 generally favored Dems for an obvious reason: Presidential election year.

"More" motivated in 08? I'm not necessarily sure about that, but there was no lack of enthusiasm among GOP voters then, even if it was primarily inspired by very deep fear/mistrust/loathing of Obama rather than strong affection towards McCain (not unlike the feelings that spurred GOP enthusiasm in 2010, and are relied on to do so again this year).

KS is a true (Atlas) blue state, which is why Roberts should indeed win by a decent margin (as noted, his lead will grow once the butthurt from the primary passes and Wolf supporters inevitably come home. The fact that Taylor is only at 40% is telling), a governor's race doesn't carry the same partisanship as federal races even in 2014. That's especially so in a state like KS with a very strong and recent practice of moderate Republicans and independents broadly backing Democrats for state office.

And while that's absolutely historically true, I do believe that in a more hyper partisan world that these typically less partisan races result in party members returning home in large numbers. And when turnout will unquestionably favor the GOP in a year like this (midterm + national climate)...

All of which I submit are good reasons why Brownback certainly has a fighting chance, but to interpret those factors at this point to mean he'll "win fairly easily" sounds like hubris.