OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[Badger]

Klein's definitely a rising star, and he'll be back. I know some people are mad that Pfeiffer's right-hand man, who was going to run for City Attorney when Pfeiffer stepped down was basically pushed aside. I forget his name right now, but Klein's liable to run for County Prosecutor again in 2020, so hopefully, this other guy can make a comeback.

And yeah, no doubt, Stinziano's favored, especially in this environment, but Democrats haven't won the Franklin County Auditor's office since 1974! Still, I'm taking nothing for granted.

Bill Hedrick?

Yeah, I guess.

Though I've heard Klein likely won't run for County Prosecutor in 2020, but AG in 2026. Which kind of makes sense. He'd be at risk of tarnishing his stardom. But damn, I'd love to have Franklin County Prosecutor, and I don't think O'Brien retires in 2020 unless he's in for another very close election, and IDK who we'd run against him.

That's interesting, but I have a hard time believing O'Brien is going to risk another tough race when he knows Franklin County falls further out of the Republican orbit every year, and after Klein serves a term as City Prosecutor O'Brien can't go after him as "Zero experience Zach". I strongly suspect he'll see the writing on the wall and go out on top, leaving the office wide open to Klein, and for Bill Hedrick to become the City's (maybe the state's?) first gay Law Director.

Franklin County Prosecutor is probably a better stepping stone to the AG's office than Columbus City Prosecutor anyway, and he's assuming there won't be a Democratic incumbent AG in 26, so he better take what he can while he can, IMHO.

Generally, I agree with your assessment — FCP is a much better launching pad than CCA and O’Brien’s in for a tough race come 2020 — but a counterpoint, if I may.

Thanks to the fact that the Ohio General Assembly is under the FCP’s jurisdiction, the office has significantly more power than any other county office in the state. If Democrats take back the Governor’s mansion and the row offices, and make significant gains in the state house, I would expect FCRP to really sink it’s teeth into holding the FCP. At this point in time, it looks like Clarence Minho will run for re-election this year, and given Franklin County’s trend, I would expect that race to be triaged when it is next up. Correspondingly, the idea that Republicans are more disciplined with their finances is going out the window. Not so with the idea they’re tough on crime, and that’s what people want, especially in the suburbs. And not just Hilliard and Dublin, Upper Arlington and even Bexley, too. If Klein does run for FCP in 2020, he risks coming across as a massive careerist — a label most Columbus politicians struggle with — and the slight chance of another loss, which really would dampen his star.

I do think it’s a safe enough bet there won’t be an incumbent Democratic AG in 2026. If Dettelbach wins this year, he either wins re-elect in 2022 or doesn’t. Either way, that leaves a Democratic opening for Klein. (Though of Dettelbach is a two term AG, we almost certainly keep the office in 2026.)

All valid points, but that didn't stop Zach Klein from winning a countywide race for City prosecutor's office by 40 points running as a Democrat. Of course it'll be different running against O'Brien, and yes he'll have plenty of funding both locally and from the state, but Klein won't lack either. If he wants to run for attorney general in 2026, I can't imagine a failed 2020 race for Franklin County prosecutor would be even remembered at that point, no more than his losing 2 O'Brien just last year hurt him in his race for City prosecutor

Wait, what? Countywide race for City Attorney? Definitely not. Grove City and Reynoldsburg didn’t get a say on who gets to replace Pfeiffer.

Sorry. I meant Citywide. Until I guarantee you klein would have one in a landslide. Even if it were a countywide race.

[Badger]

Normally I don't think it makes sense to be a pro-gun Democrat since it really won't help you in the long run. You piss off your base and you don't win over conservatives because the NRA is all-but an arm of the GOP. But Cordray might actually be able to get the NRA or even the Buckeye Firearm Association behind him if he faces DeWine in November.

If you manage to get elected on that platform and consistently vote pro-gun, the NRA will gladly help you get re-elected. They're one of the few interest groups who doesn't care about party as long as you're willing to support their policies.

I think you’re referencing a bygone era, but we’ll see.

[Badger]

Term-limited House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger has hired a defense attorney and may be under FBI investigation. Conservative upstart blog Third Rail Politics claims caucus member may soon be calling for his resignation. Some potentially related background: There is an ugly fight brewing within the House GOP to decide who will he the next Speaker — or maybe, if Democrats pitch a perfect game, Minority Leader.

So what's the "alleged" wrongdoing.

[Badger]

The son of Kucinich's LG pick, Tara Samples, arrested for threatening to kill cops.

http://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/son-of-akron-city-councilwoman-tara-samples-in-custody-after-threatening-police/95-536461584

On the one hand I'm sympathetic, not at all of the kid's statements, but the fact he has a long history of mental illness which is 99% likely behind this screed (the family arranged for his temporary hospitalization immediately afterwards).

On the other hand, I looked up the campaign's response and thought it equal parts telling and contemptible. They rightly explained the son's history of mental illness and recent psychotic break from being off meds. However, what they didn't bother saying one word about was basic support for police officers and the work they do. This wasn't just an oversight, but I suspect at heart it reflects a basic and obnoxious "f$%k the police" mentality which goes beyond issues of over-incarceration and police abuse.

In short, we regret our LG candidate's son threatened violence against (any) cop, but we're not going to spend a word contradicting his exhortations cause, well, f$%k the police, amarite peoples? 

[Badger]

It's not like I have deeply specific ideas on the likelihood of most flips. I mostly go for a binary flippable/unflippable look at things.

I really hope they don't go for suburbs either. We can't win on Romney-Clinton alone, especially not in Ohio! And considering how open to Democrats a lot of Trump country is, it would be stupid to not focus on those seats. I also, on a personal level, don't want a party that's centered around bougie suburbanites.

I'm watching Jeremy Blake's campaign with great interest. What do you think of district 2? Definitely unlikely, but it's also in central Ohio and Lane Winters intrigues me regardless of his chances.

(Snipping the backlog so the quote-chain doesn't get too long.)

I have a fairly developed system that goes from Very Likely R to Lean D. 2 Lean D, 4 Tossups, 8 Lean R, 10 Likely R, and 9 Very Likely R.

Like you, I don't want a suburban strategy, we're definitely going for those Clinton-Romney seats. By my metric, 16 of the 33 winnable seats are wholly or partially in Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, and Summit Counties alone: 2 of 9 Very Likely R, 5 of 10 Likely R, 5 of 8 Lean R and all 4 Tossups. (Interestingly, the two Lean D seats are both rural.) The real question is: how will OHDC allocate resources? As I said earlier, hopefully, we'll know soon.

I sadly think OH-02 is Safe R. If it was open this year, I think it could go into the (Very) Likely R category. Sherrod was able to carry his old stomping grounds back in '06, but I don't think he'll be doing that again this year. Winters seems like a decent candidate, though. Assuming he fails, he could be a good future candidate for more local office. We really need to start cutting into these all Republican County Commissions.

So to actually win a bare one seat majority, Dems have to sweep everything you rank as Lean R or better (for Dems), plus at least 3 (currently) Likely R races. Correct?

Sounds daunting. Are there any Democratic seats you're concerned about defending on top of this?

[Badger]

You didn't want a cross post, so I (obviously) won't post the whole 20 map story. However, the capstone is very relevant to November - the 2010 Attorney General Race by township.

On its surface that would appear to be a pretty good map for a Democrat. Tough to analyze on its face where cordray went wrong, even acknowledging that it was a razor tight race. Completely bombed in the Southwest outside Cincy and Dayton perhaps?

[Badger]

So the New York Times did an article on the race, with the Washington Post doing a more generic one of the gubernatorial races. The Washington Post article was uh... really surprising with a specific quote from the article I'm going to share:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Typical far-left loon. Just like Jill Stein.

[Badger]

In Cincinnati, even relatives of Parkland survivors prefer Cordray to Kucinich. Her argument is basically that Kucinich can't win and that you're delusional if you think we're getting an AWB in Ohio. Which is accurate. She says Kucinich is "promising something he can't deliver" and that "people will die while we wait for that ban." Ouch! She also says "I live in the real world" on multiple occasions.

I appreciate that pragmatism, in the Democratic Party, isn't dead after all.

I find that Democrats in this area are among the most pragmatic I've ever seen and we're very skeptical of grand promises. Idealism died here a long time ago if it ever even existed in the first place. Kucinich is also just broadly hated here, even among Bernie supporters, who aren't that common in the first place (even college students complain that Bernie is "literally a socialist" or that he was full of crap when he was promising free college.) Kucinich's brand of politics is an incredibly poor fit here.

This is single most accurate sentence I've ever read about Ohio btw.

You wouldn’t know jack sh!t about Ohio if Brutus bit you on the ass.

This is the point where I mention Ohio State is my most hated FBS team. That's right, above Alabama.

This is the point where I mention that no one cares.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That’s hilariously sad. A former President of the Senate is raising an amount of money that’s a middle class salary for a statewide race.

So Faber’s term in the State Senate, and his tenure as President, ended in 2016. He’s been in the State House since then, very conmon for Ohio legislators do a switcheroo. Point being, at the end of each year, Columbus Monthly puts out a superlatives list for legislators, and Faber always cleaned up with the worst ones. In the 2016 edition, with Faber headed to the House, Columbus Monthly noted he would have a lot of trouble getting his calls returned after ending his run as Senate President.

And they were right.

Yeah, Faber sucks

Why?

See for yourself.

Didn't Faber have a hand in the gerrymander the OH GOP passed back in 2011-2012?

Yes. And it’s a bad look to be running for a seat that sits on the Apportionment Board having done so. He purposely gerrymandered a very nice seat for himself. People on here know I’m bullish on Dettelbach,  but I’m even more bullish on Space.

In fairness, even the most aggressive Democratic gerrymandered on Earth couldn't make favors Mercer County based senate seat even competitive, let alone democratic-leaning. That is hard hard-core Republican territory for counties around, outside the democratic-leaning city of Lima.

All true, but he prurposefully put his House in Jordan's House district.

Was (Is) he angling to replace Jordan when/if he retires? Seems like a bad plan given Jordan's relative youth and the number of old GOP Congressional farts he could've districted himself under like Boehner.

[Badger]

Without ballot access, the Libertarian Party still would have run candidates, but their candidates would have appeared on the ballot as independents.

They have ballot access now so will they show up on the ballot as libertarians?

Uh, no. They would not have. Libertarians have till the end of the week to get on the ballot with only FIVE valid signatures.

But from how many different counties?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/RichCordray/status/1025756027227201536

I do like Cordray but I always thought people exaggerated when they said that he was boring. I now can see that he really is that boring.

Have any of you ever personally see Cordray speak? IMO he is much better in person.

I have in 2010, and he wasn't.

[Badger]

So, DeWine put out an ad recently claiming Cordray left 12,000 backlogged rape test kits. It's a decent ad and falls right into DeWine's playbook. He loves to emphasize prosecuting rapists. Cordray's now fired back with an ad that's even better, touting the endorsement of the FOP and a long-serving Republican Sherrif who is "voting for the man, not the party."

With a little more than seventy days left, the campaign's heating up, folks. And it's going to get ugly soon.

Memory serves, Des Moines biggest successes as attorney general has been following up on initiatives cordrey started. I believe among them was following up on the backlog of untested rape kits, which was delayed during court administration due to the Great Recession slashing all funding for, well, everything. But again, IRC, at least the plan for it was developed by cordray

[Badger]

If the majority of the voters of that district have any brains at all, this attack will backfire big-time.

This is a big ask for Murica.

Helle's running in a district Obama won twice and Democrats held at the state legislative level up until 2014 -- not Pennsyltucky.

So, why did you say in an earlier post the race is all but blown?

[Badger]

Any polls for DeWine vs. Cordray likely to drop soon?  We've gotten everything from FL-GOV to FL-SEN to IN-SEN to MO-SEN, yet nothing on Ohio...

We just got a C+ graded poll from Change Research earlier today. DeWine 45, Cordray 42. When they ask about the Libertarian and the Green, It's DeWine 43, Cordray, 43, Libertarian 6, Green 2. All online. Sort of junky, IMO. They only had Brown +4.

--

In more interesting news, the August Campaign Finance Reports dropped today.

August Filing

Cordray: $1.89m, $7.19m COH
DeWine: $2.02m, $11.6m COH

Dettelbach: $699k, $4.03m COH
Yost: $336k, $3.41m COH

Clyde: $238k, $1.75m COH
LaRose: $234k, $1.59m COH

Sprague: $101k, $463k COH
Richardson: $140k, $1.21m COH

Space: $154k, $998k COH
Faber: $135k, $1.14m COH

Rob Richardson is a MACHINE.

Ehhhh, Richardson has like no presence whatsoever in Franklin County

I heard on NPR he was in town campaigning yesterday. Interesting issues like divesting from private prisons.

[Badger]

Redistricting reform at the state level can't come soon enough.