Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Badger]

I read Poliquin will sue, but on what grounds? Ranked choice is not that different from run-offs.

That only the legislature can change the rules for federal elections, and so ballot initiative-driven changes are unconstitutional. Coincidentally, a favorable ruling for him would obliterate decades of pro-voter reforms across the country.

The reason I am nervous about that is because John Roberts and his band of partisan conservative justices came within 1 vote of ruling that redistricting commissions enacted by ballot initiatives are unconstitutional, as only the legislature itself can change the rules regarding redistricting. The ruling was that 'legislature' also included the voters where ballot initiatives exist, but Roberts' dissented very strongly and I'm worried he could try to overturn even such a recent precedent now that Kennedy is gone. He only seems to care about the USSC's legitimacy in cases that don't present a threat to Republicans in elections.

It shouldn't be a problem, but Roberts & friends always seem to rule favorably for Republicans when it comes to things that concern their viability in elections

Not to mention that band of thugs in Black robes don't seem to give a flying s*** about stare decius

There has been some talk about Roberts not overturning decisions made under his court, regardless of his view on it. I'll believe it when I see it, but that's been the talk.

I feel the same. Too early to say. I really hope he walks the walk. The fact that he was willing to uphold Obamacare despite pressure not to is a good sign, but....

[Badger]

Oh, I'm too lazy to link right now on my phone, but Trump also just suggested possible Federal intervention in the Florida election count shading, and I quote, there's a lot of crooked things going on down there.


Who would know better, Don?

[Badger]

The Salt Lake Tribune has basically written Love's obituary and predicts that the race will be called later today: https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/11/08/rep-mia-love-could-still/

I almost feel bad that only black GOP congresswoman loses when most of her white male colleagues, most of whom are more ideologically reprehensible than her, get to have another term... but obviously I would much rather have McAdams in Congress, so this is a pleasantly surprising result. I knew it would be very close, but I would assigned it a Tilt R rating before a Tilt D one.

My only comment is when I was in Elko about a month ago on business, we picked up Utah TV and the number of anti Ben McAdams ads being run was staggering

[Badger]

So is there a good chance for Nelson?

Outside of it actually being a machine error in Broward with the undervotes, very unlikely, though not impossible.

But what's the chance of that? As noted the under votes, or possible under counts, are very highly concentrated geographically. While I'm probably just Wishing on a Star here, then at least slightly indicates it may be a machine error.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

I don't blame Steve here. It was definitely idiot donors who loved Comstock.
See I knew Comstock was basically Safe D but I didn't expect her to lose by 13 points I thought it would be upper single due to the 5 million they spent.

Stivers was head of the R Triple C. Generally speaking, he had final say on where the money was allocated. As this tweet shows this is rccc money flushed down the toilet helping Comstock in what everybody from both side saw was a doomed reelection campaign. Why on Earth should be held accountable for this?

Again, not that I'm complaining.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/aterkel/status/1060978384703049728

Oh how I adore this post.

Steve Stivers, what an idiot you are.

I have a theory as to how Comstock got all that extra late money after the NRCC had already pulled their funds. If you remember, Comstock got those funds back right around the same time all the skeletons in Kavanaugh's closet came out. Comstock and Kavanaugh have been acquaintances/friends for at least 10-20 years through their prior work in the Bush administration. What if she had more dirt or could corroborate some of the allegations against Kavanugh? Not saying that he tried to rape her, but rather maybe a story from his prep school or college days was well known around their social circles. What if she threatens to take this public unless she gets more funds from the NRCC?

Probably didn't happen, but it's the best explanation I have.

Interesting, but even a Kavanagh hater like me thinks that's too far-fetched to give much credence.

Maybe another more Salient explanation is Kavanaugh's word suddenly became gold among Republican activist so a good word about Comstock here and there, even if past second hand from Cavanaugh, could have raised her vast sums of money.

For comparison's sake, think about how I candidate who is close to dr. Ford would have done if she got the word out directly or through intermediaries that say Wexler was on her side and trustworthy?

Not saying it happened, but it does make a bit more sense then a possible blackmail angle. Though the ladder would obviously make some awesomely juicy fanfiction.

[Badger]

Good riddance to Rohrabacher, one of the absolute worst Trumpist in Congress.

[Badger]

I love how conservatives keep referring to the counting of actual votes as "finding" new votes. They need to stop bashing education and go back and get some more of it.

[Badger]

Funny, when Democrats lose: "You lost, get over it." When Republicans lose: "Voter fraud! Finding votes! They stole the election!"

[Badger]

yeah its easily caleld for Sinema but anyway whats the rating for 2020 now that it looks like Hobbs is in the lead?
I have to say Lean D coz the only person that can win both the PRIMARY and the GENERAL is Ducey but ducey can't leave coz SOS is lt gov too in Az. Kelli Ward comes in and its probably gonna go democrat even if Trump carries Arizona.

I strongly suspect kyl will resign and McSally will be appointed in his place. Considering the closeness of this race, two years of incumbency will make her a competitive candidate.

[Badger]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

[Badger]

I think McSally may be aiming for an appointment.

That would make for some nice ads in 2020: "The voters rejected her once, but was picked by the political elite to fill another seat anyway. Who is she really representing?!"

M e h. No one really cares about that kind of inside baseball. It's particularly week when the election turns out undeniably close.

Frankly I don't see why other ambitious Arizona Republicans would accept that. They will say that she had her chance and lost, and that it's time for someone new. She will probably have to face a nasty primary.

Maybe. But who else? There are posters here far more familiar with Arizona politics than I, but it's pointed out the Congressional bench is pretty damn bad.

[Badger]

Young Kim campaign goes full Trump. Saying any new batches that are too Democratic means there is foul play. They must know that things coming up won't look too good.



https://twitter.com/YoungKimCD39/status/1062130986291318784

Such a shame that a palatable Republican with a potential future is selling their soul.

Palatable? She's like a Korean James Dobson!

[Badger]

McSally has conceded:

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

 

McSally deserves some credit for losing graciously and not drinking the Republican voter fraud Kool-Aid.

[Badger]

Senator Sinema is probably one of my favorite victories in recent years. She's a great image for the party.

She really, really, really isn’t.  I mean winning the Senate seat is important, but there’s a legitimate argument to be made that the better woman lost.  Sinema said about a week after 9/11 that she has “no problem” with Americans joining the Taliban and fighting our country’s own soldiers in Afghanistan.  Sinema is also an exceptionally unprincipled politician who almost compulsively flip-flops, is currently calling Joe Manchin her role model, and said she was undecided on Kavanaugh (which McSally was terrible about too, don’t get me wrong).  That’s not what anyone should want as the future of the Democratic Party.

Link regarding that bit about her having no problem with Americans joining the Taliban?

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/thisdog/status/1062357051756765184

If they somehow get it overturned, retaliate and take the EV away from the hicks.

A nice idea, but we both know the court that throws out RCV will never throw out the Electoral College.