Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Badger]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

[Badger]

I wonder how the dem candidate will fare in Utah. If I have to guess that would be Trump 60% Dem 40% , a massive improvement!

The only outcome that matters in that state is whether Ben McAdams holds his seat.

And a dem getting 40%, a potential outcome, would definitely help!

I doubt a Democrat approach 40% Statewide. Maybe about a third of the vote.

If the Democrat hit 40% Statewide, they'd probably win McAdams District

Badger, a third of the vote, that is Obama got in 2008. Utah turned sharply against the Republican Party and is definitely not the most republican state anymore. I really believe in a head to head match up the dem getting around 40% is doable.

Exactly. I based my 1/3 number, and actually at the last second changed it from about 35%, based on how hard Hillary dropped compared to Obama's 08 numbers.

I'll concede that breaking 35% seems doable, but 40% just seems a stretch. Maybe, possibly assuming there isn't an Evan McMullin type third-party to siphon Trump protest votes away

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1160931484376522755

I'll take disapproval, even including somewhat disapprove, as a basis for making such a map. However, as most elections have proven, particularly 2016, a candidate's lack of approval does not necessarily Translate into voting for the other person.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

I'm willing to assume that no more than one in a hundred Americans, which is thought Trump's language on Twitter had a contribution to the El Paso and Dayton shootings but, grotesquely, support that fact.

Subtracting at 1%, though, how on Earth does Trump ever get more than 47% of the vote? In other words, how can any person with a soul agree that his race-baiting scapegoating pronouncements even in part contributed to the shootings, still vote for him?

[Badger]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

See my signature

[Badger]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

I did not realize that 2012 was a democratic landslide.

[Badger]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

[Badger]

Ohio, Public Policy Polling (PPP), October 10-11, 776 RV.

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

Support the Impeachment Inquiry: 49%
Oppose the Impeachment Inquiry: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

God damn it.....😡

[Badger]

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

That's more like it!😊

[Badger]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him.

The last election disprove this completely. There will be plenty of voters who disapprove of trump but see him as the lesser of two evils against whatever baby killing socialist the Democrats nominate and a billion dollars worth of negative ads are ultimately run against.

By contrast, individuals who approve of Trump's performance but still vote against him will be negligible in number.

[Badger]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

W actually improved on his 2000 percentage notably, by nearly 3% Nationwide, where has Carrie actually dropped slightly from Gores percentage, thus enabling  W to squeak out a narrow electoral victory

[Badger]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

You know, if a Republican wins next November you are going to have massive egg on your face.

This "Republicans can't win" meme is silly.  Republicans do win - a lot.

At the risk of sounding like a temple typical pessimistic leftist, I'm not sure Republicans are as good as winning close elections as Democrats are at losing them.