What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Badger]

Toomey may not be as controversial as Santorum circa 2006, he's easily more so than Santorum 1994, and a PA institution like Specter is going to be an infinitely tougher candidate than Harris Wofford. The Democrat base will rally behind Specter just fine regardless, and particularly with Toomey as an opponent. Specter will seek to deflect charges of flip-flopping or betraying his principles by claiming "I didn't leave the GOP, it left me", and Toomey's the perfect foil for that argument. Unions will likewise get on board notwithstanding his current opposition to EFCA. There are too many other votes missing other than Specter's to beat a filibuster (Lincoln, Pryor, Nelson, maybe Landreau). As others here have commented there will likely be some compromise labor will accept and will get passed in some form with Specter's support.

No, we don't know what conditions will be like in 2010, but baring a health scare it will have to be a GOP year at LEAST equivalent to 1994 for Toomey to have a chance. If Gerlach winds up the nominee, call it somewhere between 1994 and 2002 for him to have a shot.