EU elections predictions!

[YoMartin]

For Netherlands - Go VVD!

Did Pim Fortun's (brief glimmer of a) party ever join one of the EU coalitions?

I appreciate the discussion on this issue as otherwise I wouldn't have a whole lot of sources of insight on it.

Go D66! Too bad they´re polling so poorly. If social-liberals don´t have place in a country like Netherlands, I guess we´re screwed...

[YoMartin]

1. *cough* Hitler *cough*
2. True to a point... the problem is that party lists are used.
3. Not really true... both the Labour Party and the Lib Dems are rather decentralised... true about the Tories though.

1. Well, no electoral system could have prevented Hitler. I admit that the extremely "pure" form of PR adopted in Weimar didn´t help, but actually in the last decades there have been many breakdowns in democracies with FPTP, because permanent minorities saw no reason not to attack the system as a whole.
2. Even if there are lists, they could be open (a system I don´t like personally).
3. Still, compared to parties in most democracies, their leaders have very strong power. Anyway, I don´t see this as such a terrible problem. Parliamentarism requires discipline.

[YoMartin]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

[YoMartin]

Here is the Danish result:

SD (PES): 32,7 % (+16.2) = 5 (+2)
RV (ELDR): 6.4 % (-2,7) = 1 (0)
KF (EPP): 11.3 % (+2,8) = 1 (0)
SF (EUL/NGL): 8.0 % (+0.9) = 1 (0)
JB (EDD): 9,1 % (-7,0) = 1 (-2)
KD (EPP): 1,3 % (-0,7) = 0 (0)
FB (EUL/NGL): 5,2 % (-2,1) = 1 (0)
DF: (EUN): 6,8 % (+1.0) = 1 (0)
V (ELDR): 19,4 % (-4,0) = 3 (-2)

See the result in details at http://www.kmdvalg.dk/
47.9 % voted, and that is 3 % less that 1999 (worst turnout since mit-eighties)
The Socialdemocrats scored a huge victory with former PM Poul Nyrup getting more that 400.000 personal votes. Venstre had a very bad election and the results has put PM Anders Fogh under pressure. The Anti-EU movements Folkebevægelsen and Junibevægelsen also had a bad election, the worst ever. FB only got a mandate because of a electoral alliance with JB. (and on a personal note. The place where I was polling official had a turnout of 63,5 % (-2). The votes where like this: SD 25 % RV 17,4 % KF 10,1 % SF 15,5 % JB 8,1 % KD 0.7 % FB 7,5 % DF 3,1 V 12,5 %. It is not the poorest area in Denmark

It´s interesting that left parties (SF, FB, RV) got better results in a rich area.

That is quite common in Denmark, but we've got different kinds of wealthy areas. Most of Copenhagen centre is quite leftwing or centre (RV is a social-liberal party) but the northen suburb of Cph is wery rich and conservative. Traditionally the left parties has been strong in the urban areas (quite the opposit of Sweden and Norway) and the countryside has been dominated by the farmers party (Venstre). But remember the difference between rich and poor is not that large in Denmark (the wellfare state and differantiated taxation )

Yes, I think RV getting good results in rich areas is expectable. I don´t much about their ideas, but generally left-liberal parties speak of issues that concern to people who have other problems already solved. What I didn´t expect was that 2 parties belonging to United Left were also strong there. I guess it´s just that they are stronger in urban areas in general.