2004 Democratic Primary

[Siege40]

I made a prediction map, it's not really based on polls and it isn't incredibly good, but I think you get the gist of it.

Siege

[Siege40]

The Bloc and the NDP refuse to work with the Conservatives, so no way will there be any coalition. More likely the Conservatives would with the moset seats (125 maybe) but no one would work with them and lead to a very unstable government in which the Opposition and not the Government rules. Keep in mind that the Bloc, Liberals and NDP are all left parties, so if the Cons. get power they'll have a hard time doing anything.

Siege

[Siege40]

Left-wing seems about right, given that Gilles Duceppe and Jack Layton were cozing up to each other during the debate quite nicely. I could smack Jack sometimes.

Siege

[Siege40]

The more I think about it, the more I think that Stephen Harper will become the next Joe Clark. Which would be terribly ironic given the Clark never supported Harper. The Bloc, NDP and Liberals won't support his budget, which will include a vote of confidence. The combined forces of the Opposition will be something like 200-250 members will crush the budget. Harper's government will fall. Martin if not replaced will not make the same mistakes he made this time. By March 2005 there will likely be a new election.

Siege

[Siege40]

Thanks for answering my question, Trilobyte!  Thank you also Al, New Federalist, and Siege40.

In this case, the three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be that the Liberals and New Democrats receiving a combined majority of seets (if the Grits continue their recovery and there is effective tactical voting among supporters of both parties), the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois (but not the Liberals and the NDP) receiving a combined majority of seets (which seems quite likely now) and the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc (but no two of those parties) receiving a combined majority of seats (if the Grits get really hammered).  Between these three possibilities is the prospect of independent MPs holding the ballance of power (between the Liberals and NDP on the one hand and the opposition on the other or between the Liberals and BQ on the one hand v. the opposition on the other).  At this point, it doesn't seem likely that any party will win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, but you never know.  Wouldn't it be something if a bunce of voters who disliked Martin because of the scandal, thought Harper was too extreme and either lived outside of Quebec or opposed soveriegnty for Quebec (and who may have been supporting the BQ as a protest against Martin) suddenly shifted their support to the NDP, resulting in an NDP majority in the House of Commons?  I know there's not much chance of that happening, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

Interesting idea. However unlikely. My theory is that if the NDP get some serious gains, as everyone has been suggesting, their 25+ seats then the NDP could begin to grow as a realistic alternative. I have a feeling that the Golden Horseshoe will begin to go Orange. The Liberals will spread to the Suburbs and the Conservatives will take Rural Ontario. That's what I predict for Ontario.

The West will start to look like the American west, a Blue Strong hold for the Conservatives, out side of the NDP political forts.

In addition, if the Liberals or the Conservatives want to get NDP support that means using Proportional Representation. This will SERIOUSLY alter the political landscape of Canada. The NDP will commonly reach 30 seats. The Liberals will likely always be in the majority given that they have cross-country support, the Conservatives will lose much of their former power and the Greens will make showings. The Bloc will be significantly reduced. Proportional Rep. will be a political revolution in Canada, one in the right direction.

Siege

[Siege40]

Actually the system that would work to the Dippers advantage the most would be the Australian system (STV/IRV in single member seats) which has the other advantage of every single vote counting.

I don't care what'll help the NDP more, this is what I think is best for Democracy in Canada.

BTW, did you guys hear, Ralph Nader has endorsed Jack Layton. No political affect here, and I doubt there, but interesting none the less.

And if I'm not mistaken, 56 hours and 34 minutes until the first returns from "The Rock" come in.

Siege

[Siege40]

THIS JUST IN:

Ipsos-Reid Poll

56% of Canadians would support a Liberal minority NDP backed government.

(My math says 38%, but I keep hearing something like 40%+) Would support a Conservative minority backed by the NDP

6% would support a Conservative minority backed by the Bloc

Interesting...

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[Siege40]

SES Research has released its final tracking poll: 34% Liberal, 30% Conservative, 20% NDP, 12% Bloc, 3% Green

Smiling all the way to the ballot box

Info on Nader and recent NDP developments:

http://www.cfrb.com/content/cp_article.asp?id=/global_feeds/canadianpress/nationalnews/n062515A.htm

[Siege40]

Hey Al, you going to be in here on Election night?

Siege

[Siege40]

Ya Nick East-West. Time zone. Polls open at 9:30am. and close at 9:30pm. The first polls have opened up in the East. In 10 min. polls open here, and in 3 hours and 10 min. polls the last polls will open. The first returns will come in at 8pm EST.

Good poll numbers Al.

Siege

[Siege40]

Remember, there will likely be many recounts and it may be as late as Thursday before all is set. What ever party gets the minority will only win be less than 20 seats.

Siege

[Siege40]

I'm hoping for a Conservative majority, but in reality it will be a conservative minority.

I hope Stephen Harper takes a long walk on a short wharf, if you catch my drift.

Siege

[Siege40]

Interesting.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2296

Toronto, ON – According to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released this morning, if faced with a minority government, Canadians would be more accepting of some party combinations than others:

·
Over half (56%) feel a “Liberal-led minority government supported by the NDP” would be acceptable to them; while ·
52% feel a “Liberal-led minority government supported by the Conservatives” would be acceptable to them; ·
48% feel a “Conservative-led minority government supported by the Liberals” would be acceptable to them; ·
47% feel a “Conservative-led minority government supported by the NDP” would be acceptable to them; ·
31% feel a “Liberal-led minority government supported by the Bloc Quebecois” would be acceptable to them; and ·
28% feel a “Conservative-led minority government supported by the Bloc Quebecois” would be acceptable to them.

Interpretation: Canadians don't know what they want. Those numbers don't add up... so confused...

Siege