Why I think John Thune is the GOP's best chance in 2012

[Bull Moose Base]

Thune has been pretty successful in South Dakota politics, serving three terms in the House and is probably going to win re-election in the Senate with ease this year.  He has charm, charisma and he's family-oriented. 

For those of you that see my posts, you know I'm a moderate, "RINO" I suppose.  That being said, I would strongly support Thune for 2012.

1) He comes from an outside state, SD, which could serve as an advantage, similar to Carter (GA) in 1976.

2) He has the conservative establishment behind him

3) He doesn't come across as one of those ignorant types.  For example, he's said that while he is strongly pro life and against gay marriage, he understands and RESPECTS the other side's opinion.  The tolerance factor I like.

4) He's a very good speaker and doesn't make gaffes.

5) From what I read, his record is clean.  There is no dirty work on him, which is an advantage.

6) His location in the Plains/Midwest could be an advantage to the GOP, which is rtying to still break into the upper midwest (although we got IA back in 2004

7) He's got charisma.

While the cupboard appears bare, I think this is our man for 2012, or maybe 2016, if he feels 2012 becomes unwinnable depending on the economy in the next two years.

You list almost nothing that has to do with substance so saying he's the GOP's best chance is a bit cynical.

Thune is a pretty good bet to be the nominee.  His biggest vulnerability in a GOP primary will be his vote for TARP.  Then again, probably very few GOP 2012 primary candidates will have opposed it.  Johnson and if they run, Huckabee and Pence.

[Bull Moose Base]

Most Senators can't get traction without multiple terms.  They usually need at least 3 terms to be seen as "Presidential Material" amongst the washington elites and power brokers. 

Thune will be in his second term after his reelection this year.  Of the three presidents who were elected to the White House directly from the Senate (Harding, JFK, and Obama), all of them were in either their first or second term in the Senate at the time.

But my point is that JFK and Obama were "miracle" workers who barely won (JFK) or won despite his political inexperience.  Thune will need another Miracle to win the nomination and general.

What about Harding? Harding won in a landslide and he wasn't a "miracle worker" by any means. Also, JFK won despite the fact that Eisenhower had high approvals, so that means that he was a pretty good candidate. I think you overestimate how hard it is for a Senator to win the nomination and get elected President. Thune has charisma, is conservative, and will have some experience in 2012. That is good enough for many Republican primary voters.

Not too familiar with Harding, but was he a compromise candidate and won in an drawn out convention.  JFK barely beat LBJ in the primaries, and Obama barely beat Hillary in the primaries.  This re-instates my point that it is difficult for a newbie Senator to win the nomination when there are powerful established Senators also seeking the nomination or siding with older candidates. 
Trust me, Barbour has lots of friends and fundraisers in high places.  He will freeze out Thune and Romney.  Old White Guys in the GOP will vote for Old White Guys in the primaries.  The GOP is not a place for newbie candidates.

Romney or Thune will have no trouble whatsoever raising mountains of cash or getting high profile  endorsements.  No one in a primary will go after Thune for being too inexperienced a senator, but all the governors would try to nail him on being only a senator i.e. having no executive experience, and will try to compare him to Obama 2008 in that way.  And those candidates who opposed TARP (possibly that will only be Gary Johnson?) will hit him on voting for it.