FL-SEA Polling: Gillum +6

[ajc0918]

Lean D.

Gillum is more likely to win than Abrams.

Can the Florida Senate flip to Democrats as well?

Unlikely but possible. Dems would need to basically have a perfect election for that to happen. They need 5 seats. There are about 7 on the seats in play but 5 of those are lean to likely R at this point. They'll be lucky to pick up 3 seats. I'll gladly eat crow if they win a majority though.

[ajc0918]

Lean D.

Gillum is more likely to win than Abrams.

Can the Florida Senate flip to Democrats as well?

Unlikely but possible. Dems would need to basically have a perfect election for that to happen. They need 5 seats. There are about 7 on the seats in play but 5 of those are lean to likely R at this point. They'll be lucky to pick up 3 seats. I'll gladly eat crow if they win a majority though.

Its very likely for the senate to go 19-21, or 20-20 methinks. Three tossup seats and 4 Lean/Likely R seats. Such a scenario means that every special election from then onwards becomes a battle for chamber control. 

Which seats do you think are tossups? I'd say SD-16, SD-18, and SD-36 are the only real pick up opportunities. SD-22 and SD-24 are just too out of reach for different reasons. SD-14 could be weird since the incumbent republican passed away from cancer recently and the GOP just picked a replacement candidate.

[ajc0918]

Lean D.

Gillum is more likely to win than Abrams.

Can the Florida Senate flip to Democrats as well?

Unlikely but possible. Dems would need to basically have a perfect election for that to happen. They need 5 seats. There are about 7 on the seats in play but 5 of those are lean to likely R at this point. They'll be lucky to pick up 3 seats. I'll gladly eat crow if they win a majority though.

Its very likely for the senate to go 19-21, or 20-20 methinks. Three tossup seats and 4 Lean/Likely R seats. Such a scenario means that every special election from then onwards becomes a battle for chamber control. 

Which seats do you think are tossups? I'd say SD-16, SD-18, and SD-36 are the only real pick up opportunities. SD-22 and SD-24 are just too out of reach for different reasons. SD-14 could be weird since the incumbent republican passed away from cancer recently and the GOP just picked a replacement candidate.

Why so bearish on 8? I also am probably a bit more favorable towards 22 since the CD-15 numbers show that the central I4 is a little less pub this year, but it isn't any further left then Lean R.

In SD-8 the GOP is funding an independent candidate, who use to be an elected official, and he will likely siphon African American votes from the democratic candidate. And the GOP incumbent is somewhat popular.