Australia General Discussion

[Barnes]

^Ah, yes, yes.  The practices of the House always interest me so I thought I'd focus on that for that post.

Do you think Kevin Andrews would run into the problem of being someone in a highly political position being asked to serve as the independent arbiter of the House? Not that any Speaker has been extremely independent, but still as the recent example shows...

Well yes, the Speaker isn't that independent, but Bronny set an all-time low standard. The difference is its expected widely, that Andrews will retire at the next election, Speaker and Defence are seen as retirement pre-cursor jobs. You could maybe throw a Jane Prentice type up, despite her being critical of Abbott earlier in the year.

Wasn't aware of retirement plans with Andrews - his going for the job makes more sense in that regard.

[Barnes]

Ruddock has stated he's interested in serving as speaker.

Additionally, it's possible that the Monday sitting might be used only to move a condolence motion for the late Don Randall.

[Barnes]

Very solid choice as the new Speaker.

In other news, has anyone been following the news furor over Ellen Sandell in Victoria placing a Greens' logo on the Aboriginal flag? Haha

[Barnes]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

[Barnes]

The full Coalition party room will meet at 3:15 to discuss Same-sex Marriage.

Pyne has apparently accused the PM of stacking the meeting to ensure the free-vote numbers are more tenuous, by having it as a Coalition Party room meeting, instead of just the Liberals.

Yeah, reports of "gasps" in the meeting this morning from Libs supporting SSM when the joint meeting was announced.  Moderate Liberals accusing Abbott of blindsiding them.

[Barnes]

Reports going around that about half a dozen Liberal MPs would cross the floor if a conscience vote is denied.

[Barnes]

Reports going around that about half a dozen Liberal MPs would cross the floor if a conscience vote is denied.

That's only because the Ministry cannot cross the floor without losing their positions.

Of course.  That size for a backbench revolt is pretty sizable.

[Barnes]

Abbott might have won the debate in the short-term, but his method of doing so will almost certainly prove hazardous to his leadership position. 

[Barnes]

Time for a Royal Commission into Royal Commission Corruption!

[Barnes]

Canning by-election announced for September 19.

This should be quite a nice test of just how low the Coalition's numbers have gone.

[Barnes]

Piece on this by the SMH.

Of course, Shorten and the Executive can still step in and reverse the decision here.  Shorten is privately very unhappy, and beyond being a sad loss to a great senator, this is very embarrassing following his goal of half of the ALP caucus being composed of women.

[Barnes]

I think Turnbull is fairly likely to be swapped out for leader, in the case there would be such a challenge.

Why, the F*k would they nominate turnbull for leader, can't they find anyone new or someone they didn't kick out of the leadership before.

Turnbull faces that old vexation of being terribly popular with the general public, and terribly unpopular with the Liberal caucus and core voters.  Unfortunately for him, the later is who determines if he gets the job.

[Barnes]

New polling has the ALP ahead 54-46 on the two-party preferred.

More significantly, it shows a five point increase in Shorten's approval rating, and a three point drop in Abbott's.  Shorten's approval numbers are ahead of Abbot's for the first time since the May budget, and he's also ahead as preferred Prime Minister.

Abbot has stated recently that the Canning by-election is a much more accurate test of public opinion than any poll (built on fairly good reasoning here), but remember the most recent poll in the electorate only showed the Liberals ahead by 2%.  September should be a fun month!

[Barnes]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

[Barnes]

Joe Hockey is setting up a Parliamentary Friendship Group with Labor's Katy Gallagher about the push for an Australian Republic.

Very interesting to see Hockey make such a public push for this now, but also encouraging from the point of view of the republican movement and the momentum that its been trying to build as of late.

Disgusting. Hope he's sacked.

...Most (or at least a strong minority) of high-profile Liberals are republicans, including Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull. This was the case in the Howard years too, with individuals like Peter Costello being self-professed Republicans.

Unfortunately it seems like it'll be a very long time before a republic comes into being.

Well Shorten is trying to fire up the energy within Labor again.

I think it will be within the next decade.

[Barnes]

The gift that keeps on giving... and this one you can't immediately blame on Captain CockUp (although the chest-thumping BS is all from him).

Yeah, this whole affair was fairly...bungled, putting it mildly. 

[Barnes]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

[Barnes]

Denis Napthine is stepping down from the Victorian Parliament.

Yeah, it's going to be an interesting by-election me thinks.

I posted an article in the by-elections thread that postulates a strong challenge from the Nationals.  They certainly need some kind of momentum after the drubbing they were given at the state election.

[Barnes]

In other news, Dyson Heydon has decided to not step down from the Royal Commission, so that little show goes on for a while more.

[Barnes]

Tony Windsor is getting ready to contest New England against Barnaby. Windsor knows the vibe of his electorate better than anyone. This is going to be deeply entertaining.

I will have to put New England back on my list of must-watch seats.  These country seats that are slipping away from having the Coalition as the only dominate force and electing mainly independents (Indi, New England, Shepparton in Victoria) are really interesting to me.

[Barnes]

I've always thought that Turnbull never really stopped stalking Abbott, but knew that last February was just too soon. 

If they move before Canning, I would be surprised, but not shocked.  I see a challenge and a likely Turnbull victory by the end of the year at the latest.

[Barnes]

Leading on from what Polnut posted above, the Sydney Morning Herald has a story out claiming that Turnbull's backers are trying to convince him to challenge this week.

There's a growing belief among the rebels that Abbott will call an early election to sideline them even if it means a certain electoral defeat. 

Now, like all stories that swirl around leadership spills I take that with a heavy dosing of skepticism, but to quote one anonymous Liberal MP about Abbott: "he's crazy enough to do it."

[Barnes]

Recent Australian history has shown that incumbency is no longer enough for first-term governments to get reelected on. He would really have to be insane to go to an election with this kind of polling.

Does he even have a trigger for a double dissolution though?

The one that I am aware of is a bill to abolish the CEFC that was rejected before the new Senate was seated in 2014 - so there's actually a bit of discussion over whether that can really qualify.  I do believe there is another, but don't quote me on it.

Regardless, he can call a House election whenever he wants.

And the point about incumbency is most certainly a valid one - just take a look at Victoria or Queensland! 

[Barnes]

A bill that would have increased oversight of trade union officials was rejected for a second time by the Senate in August, which gave another trigger to Abbott.

Here's a link.

[Barnes]

It's happened.

Turnbull has resigned and requested a ballot.

There goes me going to sleep anytime soon!