Australia General Discussion

[Barnes]

Apparently Abbott has declared today "Back to Work Tuesday" for his MPs. Oh dear...

[Barnes]

Really? Wow.

Any chance the Administrator dismisses Giles?

[Barnes]

This feels like that moment in a game of Europa Universalis when all your rebellions start to pop. VIC first, fine, whatever... then all of a sudden, QLD, NT, Federal, maybe a bit of pain in NSW...

It's just like a stack of dominoes.

If you think about it, the last two months, and in particular just the last week, has been absolutely astounding in political chaos.

[Barnes]

From the above article:

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What a fun day this is turning into!  Unless you're a Territorian, of course.

[Barnes]

And in further news today, the Reserve Bank has cut interest rates to 2.25%.

[Barnes]

I feel this is appropriate.

I saw that earlier and died laughing.

Yes, I'm sure Julia is having quite a nice weekend now.

[Barnes]

Statement from Bishop

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Well, that's an emphatic endorsement isn't it?

"I am telling literally everyone who has the ability to turf him to turf him, but he has put words in my mouth so in public I need to be a loyal deputy. Which is why for the next three days I have laryngitis and will stay at home to call text my collegues to ensure they do not support the current leadership."

We saw how effective some nicely timed dental surgery was for John Major in 1990!

[Barnes]

Are there any specifics on the time of the party room? Has it been moved up ahead of Question Time?

[Barnes]

If that's the case, I'll have to make sure and catch QT on Monday. Should be more farcical than usual!

[Barnes]

The LNP party room is meeting in Queensland now to elect a leader and deputy.

[Barnes]

Supporters of Turnbull saying he will challenge Abbott - The Canberra Times

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[Barnes]

Yeah, Springborg's been elected Leader and John-Paul Langbroek has been elected Deputy Leader.

[Barnes]

Abbott has moved the spill forward to 9:00 am Monday.

[Barnes]

Yeah, moving the time is just a further example of Abbott promising to listen and respect backbenchers more and then immediately sticking it to them.

[Barnes]

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

[Barnes]

Still he probably will survive this spill. But I'll be amazed if he's still in power by the next election, unless he calls a double dissolution or something.

Sinodinos, someone with considerable power in the 'establishment' wing of the party, has confirmed he will be supporting the spill. With Teresa Gambaro talking about 5 years of 'intimidation and hubris'... this is starting to slip.

Either Abbott just holds on tomorrow (I'm convinced there's no more than 15-20 votes in it right now) and this gets resolved in a month or 6 weeks, once the polling really collapses (they're already down 57-43) ... or the momentum opens up over the next 24 hours.

I know we all love to speculate about double dissolutions, but does the government have a trigger at this point?

As far as I'm aware, they don't.

I think this was the last straw for most of the undecideds; we'll see shortly if that was enough.

I though as much with the DD trigger. The one that the government did have from the old Senate was nullified when they passed the bill in question post July 2014.

[Barnes]

ABC News 24 bro-block as been lifted, if anyone wants to watch.

I think Abbott will scrape by, but his days are numbered. I wouldn't be surprised if Abbott is dumped in a few weeks.

[Barnes]

Counting has begun on the spill motion...

[Barnes]

With one informal and one absence.

[Barnes]

Why Abbott has become so unpopular?

He was never popular.

That's essential to understanding this whole issue.

From a while ago, but still relevant:

Can Shorten really become the PM in 2 years? I know Australia is really unprone to government changes and than Labor was heavilly defeated, but Abbott is really unpopular and gaffe-prone.

Abbott has never really been popular, it's just that Labor eventually became more unpopular than him for a long enough window for him to win the election.  That said, the Coalition has quite a healthy majority, but Australian changes of government are known to be achieved by very sizable swings (discounting Whitlam in '72). 

As we all know, it's really not possible to predict any outcome two years before an election, but I certainly think that Labor has established a real lead and if an election were held today they would come within a fair shot of winning, if not indeed achieving a majority.

[Barnes]

Apparently I was incorrect in assuming that the Government lost its DD trigger with the CEFC bill that the Senate rejected back in June.  Of course, a bill was finally passed that effected that repeal, but it was a physically different bill than the one rejected in June -- so, that one could theoretically be used as a trigger, even though a bill of an identical nature eventually passed the Senate.

Also, the earliest possible date for a by-election in Ferny Grove is April according the ECQ, so it's almost certain that Labor will form a government within a day or so, regardless of the eventual decision with regards to Ferny Grove.

[Barnes]

Philip Ruddock is standing down as Government Chief Whip.

[Barnes]

The Ruddock thing is stuuuuupid beyond belief. He was the only thing Abbott had going for him in the parliament.

Plus, this was yet another "Captain's Call."  Abbott really is his own worst enemy...

[Barnes]

The interim Queensland ministry of Palaszczuk, Jackie Trad, and Curtis Pitt has been sworn in.

[Barnes]

Helen Clark has had her hand up for aaaages and she's probably do a better job.

I think that she'd be undoubtably superior in the role.