EU elections predictions!

[CO-OWL]

Poll by Infratest-dimap

CDU/CSU (Christian Dems) 46%
SPD (Social Dems)              30%
Greens                               12%
FDP (Liberals)                      5%
PDS (Socialists)                    4%

But results are skewed the same way as freek pointed out for the Netherlands. Turnout will be low (again below 45%, I think) which normally benefits the Union
and hurts SPD.

FDP: supporters give very low priority to EU elections and they are not needed to form a coalition. Hence it's likely that they miss the 5%-threshold

PDS: local/state election in 4 Eastern German states could increase turnout in their strongholds. I wouldn't be surprised, if they got something like 5,1%.

[CO-OWL]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Good idea! This would clearly be an improvement. If today you asked someone to name at least one MEP, the chance of getting no answer would be quite high in Germany. I think, in the rest of Europe it's not very different.
With party lists politicians have little incentive to turn to the voters, but struggle mainly for a safe place on the list.

 
 
 

[CO-OWL]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

9 seats? This would mean at least 8%, very, very unlikely. Last time polls gave them 5-6% and they got 3%.
 
Before the last general election in 2002 the FDP started Project18, meaning 18% of the votes! Polls in the summer had them up to 13%, on election day they got 7,4%.
 
I hope they get 5% this time.

[CO-OWL]

Here are the final predictions

    P  S  L  G  C U E  X M O
AT  6  7  0  2  0 0 0  1 0 2 18

A new party in Austria?

I think, it's the HPM (Hans-Peter Martin) list.
Martin is a former member of the SPÖ group in the EU parliament. His main topic seems to be the incorrect behaviour of EU parliament members in getting expenses and extra pays.
In the polls the HMP list gets 10-15% !

[CO-OWL]

(Inofficial) Results from the Netherlands:

CDA 24,5% (7 seats)
PvdA 23,6 (7 seats
VVD 13,1 (4 seats)
GL 7,4 (2 seats)
CU/SGP 5,9 (2 seats)
D66 4,2 (1 seat)
SP 7,0 (2 seats)
Eur. Transp. 7,3 (2 seats)
LPF 2,6 (0 Seats)
Other 4,4 (0 Seats)

Turnout: around 39%

[CO-OWL]

Official result for Germany:

CDU/CSU 44,5/49 seats            ('99: 48,7/53)
SPD         21,5/23                      (30,7/33) Worst result ever in nationwide election since 1949
Greens    11,9/13                       (6,4/7) Best result
PDS           6,1/7                        (5,8/6)
FDP            6,1/7                        (3,0/0) Back in EU parliament
OTHER       9,9/0                        (5,8/0) All << 5% threshold

Turnout   43,0                         (45,2)

Main reason: discontent with SPD/(Green) government
                      voters want to punish Schröder/SPD