2012 Map Megathread

[ej2mm15]

red is republicans, blue is dem. Don't really get the opposite way around on this site. Anyway, I'm basing this off of the 2008 swing states, and I do not do it by guess, I do it by statistics.
(MY SWING STATE THERUM)
Each state starts as a swing, and say Obama wants to add ... Ohio to his side. All he has to do is get one poll where he has a 16 point advantage or higher and its on his turf. Now, for that state to go back to the swing column, all the repub has to do is have one poll with them in the lead. DOn't say its bad, because on Nov 4 2008, the only thing on my swing map that changed was that Arkansaw went from swing to rep. other then that, all the states staying on their turf. What u think about my therum? Plse reply.

Btw, you may say that it is too strict, but during about the last 6 months of the elections, you'll see 2-4 changes a month.

[ej2mm15]

red is republicans, blue is dem. Don't really get the opposite way around on this site. Anyway, I'm basing this off of the 2008 swing states, and I do not do it by guess, I do it by statistics.
(MY SWING STATE THERUM)
Each state starts as a swing, and say Obama wants to add ... Ohio to his side. All he has to do is get one poll where he has a 16 point advantage or higher and its on his turf. Now, for that state to go back to the swing column, all the repub has to do is have one poll with them in the lead. DOn't say its bad, because on Nov 4 2008, the only thing on my swing map that changed was that Arkansaw went from swing to rep. other then that, all the states staying on their turf. What u think about my therum? Plse reply.

Btw, you may say that it is too strict, but during about the last 6 months of the elections, you'll see 2-4 changes a month.

16 points
McCain didn't even win Texas or Mississippi by 16 points. Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Jersey were won by Obama by less than 16 points.

No, It is also based mostly on POLLING. McCain had some polls with 16 or above (though very few), and Texas stayed republican from 2004, since Obama never took a lead there. Wisconsin, Minnesota and NJ, Obama definately had a point over 26. As for the 16%, ... seemed like a good number to me... it works out... sooooo...?

[ej2mm15]

Obama Vs Palin

Obama Vs Gingrich

Obama Vs Romney

Obama Vs Huckabee