Indiana Republican congressional primaries - May 7

[Open Source Intelligence]

A lot of money has been put into defeating Hostettler, who seems like he would be another Massie.

He was not gung ho pro-Israel aid when he served in Congress, so AIPAC are spending heavy against him.

I live in the Indiana 3rd, I disagree with your take on Zay is an extremist. He's a pretty regular State Senator. I jokingly call him "Tenderloin Man" as he is from Dan Quayle's hometown of Huntington where a downtown restaurant says they invented the breaded tenderloin sandwich, and Zay wrote a bill a couple years ago that became law to make the Breaded Tenderloin the State Sandwich of Indiana. It made news of we're in the middle of a large property tax crisis and the General Assembly is passing laws about breaded tenderloins.

Everything I've read is the 3rd is a crapshoot between the former Congressman Stutzman, 2019 Fort Wayne Mayoral candidate complete failure Tim Smith, and Allen County Judge Wendy Smith, with Zay being an outsider that's a tier above the random "everyone else" running. So no different than 2016 when it was a broadway between Jim Banks, Kip Tom, and Liz Brown.

Zay will clean up Huntington although it's small. Largest vote center is Allen County/Fort Wayne. Smith was a pretty bad candidate for Fort Wayne Mayor in 2019 so I can't imagine Fort Wayne Republican establishment back him. Stutzman was Congressional Rep before I paid attention to local politics so not much idea of him. Davis will do strongest in Allen County (Fort Wayne), but I think being a judge from Fort Wayne hurts her everywhere else, and her and Smith will kind of cancel out Fort Wayne's influence. Since nothing major has occurred, that screams draw and I think Stutzman will get the nomination then.

As far as who all the PACs are backing: http://www.fortwaynepolitics.com/p/whos-really-behind-all-the-negative

Probably the craziest primary is the 5th. I would not be surprised if Spartz loses to Goodrich, she's annoyed enough people, but incumbency...Chinthala some parts of the district have been openly antagonistic to per reports.

The 6th Shreve has effectively used his name recognition from the 2023 Indianapolis Mayor's race and money to try to buy the nomination (the southern part of Indianapolis is in this district). Speedy is the next most solid option, but Jamison Carter was climbing in private polls per the political newscasters I frequent.

You skip the 4th but don't discount an upset of Baird by Bookwalter.

[Open Source Intelligence]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

The Dems got Schrader kicked off the ballot on a list of technicalities.

[Open Source Intelligence]

IN-03

This seat is based in Fort Wayne and is currently held by Jim Banks, who is running for Senate. The rep before Banks, Marlin Stutzman, is running again and probably has a good shot due to name recognition. There are a bunch of other candidates, but the only other one with a somewhat high profile seems to be State Senator Andy Zay, who definitely seems like more of an extremist.

I live in the 3rd. Didn't vote in the primary - three Democrats running, and not a one of them replied to an e-mail I sent out to their campaigns, so screw them - but am very interesting in the eight-way GOP primary results.

All I can say is that I don't want Stutzman to get his seat back. My father ran against him back in 2014 in the GOP primary, so I admit it's personal; even so, I'm hoping that someone other than Stutzman - Zay or Wendy David, perhaps - pulls it out.

Personally, I'd think that Zay or Tim Smith is most likely. Smith has the most money based on what I've seen, and I've actually heard his name from apolitical people, so apparently his name's getting out there.

On the Democratic side - three-way race between Kiley Adolph, Phil Goss, and 2016 nominee (andembarrassment) Tommy Schrader - I'd suspect that Adolph wins. Goss has a lot more money, and I've seen sponsored ads from his campaign on X/Twitter, but Adolph seems to have more of the Democratic Party support, for whatever that's worth in this area.

That said, looking forward to tomorrow night.

The Dems got Schrader kicked off the ballot on a list of technicalities.

Didn't hear that, but as far as I'm concerned, good riddance.

C'mon, I love Tommy. Borderline homeless guy that wins a primary to Congress and opens the door to a TV news reporter at his motel room in his underwear and a Packers hat gives politics all the respect it deserves.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Not that it matters, but in the Democratic Party of Indiana's first contested statewide race in 16 years, expected candidate Marc Carmichael is getting trounced by Valerie McCray. McCray is a black woman from Indianapolis that originally was running for President in 2020 as an independent.

Also in doesn't matter category, Jennifer Pace wins the 4-way Republican primary for the Indianapolis-based 7th. What is weird is Pace has been dead since March.

Low turnout low interest election. I see very splintered results which tells me you have parties whose electorates don't know what they want to be. 5 candidates in the GOP 3rd above 10% and the winner might not clear 25?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Looks like Stutzman has been projected as the winner. Damn shame, in my view. Still, an exciting race - surprised that Zay didn't hold on a bit better. Expected him to at least get second place, but he's down at fourth.

5 candidates got more than 10% and Stutzman right now is winning at 24.0%. That's the mark of an electorate that doesn't know what they want and did not make a decision. Adolph won the Democratic nod over Goss, I think that's an upset as well as it seems the local Dem establishment what it was supported Goss.