Simplified view on situation in Arab countries (user search)
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  Simplified view on situation in Arab countries (search mode)
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Author Topic: Simplified view on situation in Arab countries  (Read 472 times)
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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Posts: 57,380


« on: June 21, 2011, 07:06:49 PM »

I noticed that many people are looking at the recent developments in the Arab world in a very simple, and thus misguided, way.

Tunisia and Egypt were areas of an successfull popular uprising against a dictator (successfull, because key establishment elements decided to, more on less openly, back the protesters, like army in Egypt). Bahrain was an example of a popular uprising, that was put down by security forces and foreign help.

Meanwhile, Syria and Libya doesn't really fall into this category. As of Syria, true, we can say that a majority of population (Sunni) are opposing the regime, but the same regime have strong support among other groups, like (naturally) Alwaites or Christians. Syria is a diverse country, unlike Tunisia or Egypt.

In Libya we simply have two sides in a civil war, going on in a very divided country. And despite my lack of sympathy toward Gaddafi, I wouldn't call Libyan rebels a pure "freedom figthers".

Perceiving the situation in Libya or Syria the same way, like situation in Egypt or Tunisia, is, in my opinion, a pure ignorance.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,380


« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2011, 02:40:06 PM »

I agree, in part.  I think you overstate the evenness of regime vs. opposition in both cases.

In Syria particularly, there is a disconnect between notions of modernity and the medieval crackdown by Assad that isn't just a religious affiliation issue.  Major protests have occurred throughout the country, even in traditional areas of support for the regime.

Yes, you're right. I underestimated this factor.

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Naturally, but there always been a division between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. Gaddafi never been as strong in Cyrenaica, which was a main base for Sannusi monarchy before 1969.

Well, after all, Libya was created, like many post-colonial countries in Africa, with little regard to an actual historical and social ties.

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Gaddafi basically had over 40 years to build a country where everything was resolving around him. In 1969, all he need to take power was a group of junior officers to take over army HQ and radio station. Assad, meanwhile, inherited a very strong powerbase created by his father. It didn't save them from current troubles, but difference is clear.

So yes, in comparison, powers of Ben Ali and Mubarak were weak. It took hours before Ben Ali lost all control. Mubarak held longer, but only because army was reluctant to just kick his ass openly.
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