Polish Politics and Elections

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In any case, the opposition almost seem to be doing everything to lose the election. Aside of every gaffe and misstep possible, they've given up on making any efforts aimed at the PiS' stronghold. Sure there's no chance they could win over rural/small town voters in general, but under the proportional system it's all about making a dent. In 2015 PiS made a dent in PO's "natural" base, in addition to maxing their base support. Sometimes they seem to be more worried about the possible left resurgence than PiS' landslide victory. Furthermore KO is taking their stronghold over "big cities" for granted, putting up the face of a party of prosperous and happy urbane middle class, which isn't that appealing to large segments of urban populations, struggling with various issues.

I've been spending a lot of time in the eastern Masovia recently, which is PiS' strongholds. KO and other opposition forces could've easily exploited the fact the situation in the rural areas didn't really improved since PiS came to power, just to gain some additional support, but they essentially conceded. And what's worse, they're proceeding with their "stupid rural people will vote PiS no matter what" narrative, which only mobilizes more support for PiS there.

PiS getting reelected with absolute majority is inevitable and the only issue is whether they can pull Orban and get a constitutional majority (something I can't entirely discount as implausible) or "just" regular majority.


Apologies for somewhat incoherent rant.

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I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

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I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

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RIP Jan Szyszko, former Minister of Environmental Destruction.

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This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

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Are there reports of vote buying and other irregularities?

It's pretty early, so I haven't heard anything.

A lot of folks publish photos of their marked ballots on social media, like during previous elections, which is certainly a violation of the electoral silence, but I haven't seen it ever prosecuted.

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This is today. Will be very depressing

Yep. The only question is the size of PiS' majority.

Oh yes, there's also the question of both Left's performance and whether Korwin and Co. will cross the magic 5%, but the general outcome is not in question.

Would the PiS basically replicate Orbanism in Poland if they get a aupermajority? I think the assumption is that the PiS has done a decent job lurching to the right in a less scary and autocratic way than, say, Erdogen and Orban. Does a supermajority give them enough confidence to get scary?

Well, that's a good question. So far, despite the parliamentary opposition's almost comical incompetence, and having a majority on their own (first one-party majority since 1989*), they've been somewhat cautious, and some large public protests, like when there were proposals to adopt even more restrictive law, caused them to pull back (it was never an official government proposal, though). At the same time they've been quite busy in "reforming" court system in essentially Orbanesque way. Another mandate, and (hopefully not) constitutional majority could free them of restraint.

Though they managed to marginalize some of the more nutty far-right, like Korwin and Co., PiS did incorporate other far-right elements, and it shows.


* Technically PiS' parliamentary club/electoral list is not one party, but a coalition, with two or three minor parties, established by some of former PiS' leading members like Gowin or Ziobro, but it's essentially one force under one leader.

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Turnout by noon: 18.14%

Four years ago it was 16.47%

Polls close at 9pm right?  I recall there were leaked exit polls before 9pm back in 2015.  Will that be true this time?  Really looking forward to the results.

Yes but there's always a possibility of the electoral silence extended if vote is extended in at least one precinct for whatever reason (like, you know, someone's dropping dead, some procedural problem or many people actually turning up at the time the polls are supposed to close). That's been happening recently and everybody hates is.

There are probably going to be some cleverly disguised leaks. During 2015 presidential we've had "prices" for "pudding" (Duda) or "hunter's stew" (Komorowski).

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Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

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Speaking of turnout, I don't think we can read that much into it. Before 2015 it was widely expected that a high turnout will benefit PO, as PiS had more limited support, and thus faring well with low turnout (like in 2005). But that obviously changed.

To be fair, 50% is hardly stellar turnout. I wonder if it ends up closer to 60% whether the PiS majority could be in danger.

Well, here's a rundown of turnout in all elections since 1991:

1991: 43.2%
1993: 52.1%
1997: 47.9%
2001: 46.29%
2005: 40.57%
2007: 53.88%
2011: 48.92%
2015: 50.92%

In 1989, when only 35% of the seats were to be freely elected (remaining 65% of the seats being reserved for PZPR and satelite parties), the turnout was 62.7%.

Because one-member constituency system, with a runoff mandated if no candidate won an outright majority was used for these 35% of the seats, we've had 25% turnout in the second round.


And just to compare, here's turnout figures for presidential elections (1989 was an indirect election via the National Assembly):

1990: 60.6% (1st round), 53.4% (2nd round)
1995: 64.7% (1st round), 68.2% (2nd round)
2000: 61.08% (no runoff)
2005: 49.6% (1st round), 51.0% (2nd round)
2010: 54.94% (1st round), 55.31% (2nd round)
2015: 48.96% (1st round), 55.34% (2nd round)

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By the way, here's a shot I took at an abandoned school last month, which is weirdly relevant today:



"Electoral Precinct Number 8 in Daniłowo"

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FIRST WAVE EXIT POLL FROM PALADE:

PiS 47.1
PO 26.3
Left 12.8
PSL 7.7
Confederation 5.3

Are the seat allocation pure PR or d'hondt?

D'Hondt.

Could some of you guys, that actually understand this mess, give us an estimate regarding seat distrubution?

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Confderation 24

At 5.3%, this isn't even possible under the Polish electoral system.

I am not clear.  Is Confederation considered at party or list

They're running as a party.

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To recap, PiS, SLD, PSL and Confederation all have party lists, with other parties receiving spots. KO is the only major coalition committee running, and thus subjected to 8%

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Btw, I didn't vote in Warsaw after all, but in the Siedlce-Ostrołęka district, where my mom moved and I've decided to stay until November. Voted for Lewica for Sejm and PSL candidate for Senate (my first Senate vote since 2007 and first vote for that formation ever).

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PSL is doing pretty well.

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PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

They're running with what's left of Kukiz, probably bolstering their numbers.

And yes, I love the irony: the great anti-establishment fighter Kukiz ending up in bed with the most establishment of all parties.

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PSL is doing pretty well.

Tactical opposition voters due to fear that PSL won't cross the threshold?

Rather Kukiz voters + some of the centre-right conservative-liberals who used to support Gwiazdowski + traditional PSL electorate.

Traditional PSL electorate has been shrinking in recent years, so they probably needed additional numbers. PSL was traditionally a farmers' party and I've read recently that only about 10% of people from the rural areas actually lives off the land.

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No indication the electoral silence is going to be prolonged, so we're 29 minutes away from polls closing.

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Projected majority: 9 seats (my bet is it'll be more, but nowhere near a big one)

As of turnout: wow!

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According to this uncertain exit poll, PiS won in all but two voivodeships, except Pomorskie and Lubuskie, though in Lubuskie PiS is within less than one percent.

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Oh, it seems German Minority (MN) will retain its one MP.

For those unfamiliar, national minority committees are exempted from a 5% nationwide threshold, and only need to exceed 5% in their districts. The MN is running in Opole only.

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So PiS narrowly loses its majority and will depend on Korwin for support? On one hand good that they lost, but Korwin is even worse (other than for memes)

They didn't "lose". Even if PiS ends up narrowly short of majority, they'll still most likely form a government, because even all other parties put together wouldn't be able to form one. Certainly can't see Konfederacja being in the same government with the rest.

PiS is dissapointed, because despite having it's best result ever, they failed to increase their number of seats (with all other parties entering the next Sejm, d'Hondt didn't help like the last time), but they're still having four more years.

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Almost 94% of the Senate vote has been counted.  What are the seat leads count by party?

Senate is elected with FPTP, as for now is 48-48.

Before 2011 we've had multi-member Senate constituencies, with between two to four top vote-getters (depending on district's size) getting elected, but thanks to PO we now have single member constituencies.

Luckily this time the opposition (largely) got their act together and in many districts worked to endorse just one candidate.

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Lol, Jaruzelska not only lost her Senate race in Warsaw, she also finished third.

All because of the petty people who didn't want her run for Sejm! (source: Leszek Miller FB page)