WV-SEN 2024: Manchin out, Justice for All

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, apparently, Manchin and Don have beef, so I can see Manchin running if Blackenship is nominated, and even have a decent chance to win if he pulls moderate Republicans + Democrats that don't want a guy who went to jail for a year.

Overall, I think the seat went back down to "only" likely R.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, apparently, Manchin and Don have beef, so I can see Manchin running if Blackenship is nominated, and even have a decent chance to win if he pulls moderate Republicans + Democrats that don't want a guy who went to jail for a year.

Overall, I think the seat went back down to "only" likely R.

if justice is the nominee He have a hard time with moderate republican considering how popular justice is

Right, Justice is moderate. Still, it's a better shot than a Dem campaign would have been.

[Compuzled_One]

A thought I just had: If Blankenship somehow won, would he switch parties?

Don't know, I get the feeling he doesn't know what he's doing.

[Compuzled_One]

I know all attention on the Dem side is on John Brown lover and Paul Bearer, but what do we know about this Glenn Elliot guy and his chance? From what I've seen, he sounds centrist (except on abortion I guess), met with Byrd, and is well respected, so he's not the worst candidate.

I mean, Justice will still likely blow him out 20%+, but who knows, maybe he's secretly communing with Truman's ghost.

[Compuzled_One]

Welcome back, Bog Don! Endorsed.

It would actually be funny for the dude to win, though I fail to see him even winning the primary. Maybe he would have 15-20 years ago, but most of the Appalachian DINOs either switched parties or are dead already.

Also, late, but judging by this table, the 2020 election in relation to this table, and some Presidential primary results, the Demosaur's might still hold a punch and about 30-35% of the vote. The biggest challenge to him is the fact he, by what I heard, is widely hated, so he best hope that hate avoids his "base".

https://sos.wv.gov/elections/Documents/VoterRegistrationTotals/2023/Dec2023.pdf

[Compuzled_One]

Manchin has backed Glenn Elliot.

https://apnews.com/article/west-virginia-joe-manchin-glenn-elliott-8b8ad1cb4989b4dc253b7cf95932285e

I think Glenn Elliot will win with this, especially since Blankenship isn't raising any money.

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1784735406581256423

The heck? He's a RFKJ fanboy now?

[Compuzled_One]

Are they even gonna poll this race anymore

If Blankenship wins somehow, probably.

[Compuzled_One]

Alright, final predictions.

Republican:

70% Justice
26% Mooney
4% Others

Democratic:
57% Elliot
27% Shrewsbury
15% Blankenship

[Compuzled_One]

You know, if Blankenship somehow wins and Manchin runs, Don only needs to pull 6% of the vote for Manchin to win if all those votes are from Justice, judging by that one September 2023 poll between independent Manchin and Justice. I don't think that percentage is unreasonable for Blankenship. Of course, it's likely many low-info Dems will vote Blankenship in November in this scenario, so that number could be in the 10-20% range, which is less reasonable.

[Compuzled_One]

Okay, there's a low amount of votes in the primaries, apparently. Who does that help?

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/sen_joemanchin/status/1796547335767671199?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Wait, WHAT?! It's not over?!

[Compuzled_One]

https://twitter.com/sen_joemanchin/status/1796547335767671199?s=46&t=-r8JGlJ...

Wait, WHAT?! It's not over?!

I'll laugh if this was just for him to reenter the senate race as an Independent.... AND still goes on to lose to Justice immediately after poll closing.

I mean, yeah, he ain't winning at this point, especially with Elliot in the race. Even if Elliot drops out, many Dems will see it as a shady maneuver and not vote for Manchin.

[Compuzled_One]

Good riddance. Even if his replacement is Justice, I'm just glad Manchin will be gone in January.

 As morbid as this sounds unless a soon to be Sen. Justice loses weight.... I really don't think he'll be there for long.

Plot twist: Elliot secretly has some crazy ass dirt on Justice that would've caused him to lose in a 1v1-Manchin's tanking Glenn on purpose so he can run in the 2026 election if Justice bites it.

Dark jokes aside, I think Justice will be okay-he's not ancient and will have Senatorial healthcare, which I assume is good. He'll likely be a one termer, though.

[Compuzled_One]

He’s gonna try and win as an independent isn’t he? Wouldn’t be surprised if he “endorses Trump” or something to try and do so. No one ever said Manchin wasn’t a good politician, so I’ll give him that.

I kinda feel Manchin hoped that Blankenship would win so he could get back in, and set up the infrastructure to do so. Then Blankenship lost because Manchin didn't realize how hated he was, but the latter didn't want his time and money going to waste, so he went independent and will jump back in soon in a vain attempt to keep his job.

Or maybe he just wanted to be independent in his last few months.

[Compuzled_One]

He’s gonna try and win as an independent isn’t he? Wouldn’t be surprised if he “endorses Trump” or something to try and do so. No one ever said Manchin wasn’t a good politician, so I’ll give him that.

I kinda feel Manchin hoped that Blankenship would win so he could get back in, and set up the infrastructure to do so. Then Blankenship lost because Manchin didn't realize how hated he was, but the latter didn't want his time and money going to waste, so he went independent and will jump back in soon in a vain attempt to keep his job.

Or maybe he just wanted to be independent in his last few months.

Remember when Amash became a libertarian in 2020 before he retired?

I think Amash planned to run but saw he'd lose.

[Compuzled_One]

I have to ask, assuming Manchin goes through with an insane independent run, didn't he already file paperwork in 2022 or something, meaning he can declare at any time? Or does he need to refile if he goes as an independent?