Washington state megathread

[Stranger Than Fiction]

For my inaugural post, Dow Constantine regains a 10 point lead in the SurveyUSA final poll.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/archives/183910.asp

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Yes sir, I have been following this board for a year now...just waiting on the perfect time to dive in!

[Stranger Than Fiction]

My predictions:

R-71 Passes by 18%.  I think we will see strong performance from Eastern WA (Spokane, Whitman, Asotin and Okanagan) coupled with weak results in exurban/rural, working class counties in the West.  R-71 probably has a 50-50 chance of passing in Pierce Co and could come up short in Clark Co.   Having moved here from CT a year ago, my sense is that Eastern WA is quite libertarian leaning whereas the evangelical strength is strongest along the Columbia River from the Vancouver suburbs through Walla Walla.

King Co Executive: Dow Constantine by 15%.  Frankly, a Democrat winning fewer than 60% in King County is unacceptable. Flashback of the 2008 Gov race, when Gregoire-Rossi ran about even for two years before pulling ahead in the last days of the campaign.

Races also worth watching are on the Eastside.  Despite the massive inroads made by the Democrats on the federal and state level over the decade,  Bellevue (where I currently live) City Council is still dominated by permanent GOP "fixtures" backed by Kemper Freeman.  The Democrats have fielded a slate of candidates to run in all open positions.   The races to watch are Pos 2 - Vicki Orrico against Conrad Lee (the old crank who lost to Reichert in the primary) and Pos 7 - a 3-way open seat race between two GOP backed candidates and a Dem endorsed candidate.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Some Random Thoughts on R-71 results:

The King Co returns are stellar and I gave too much credit for Washington's libertarian streak, especially in Eastern WA.  Not surprised that it is faring poorly in the SW part of the state.

Could someone please enlighten me what's the deal with Pierce Co!?!?  This county sticks out like a sore thumb in each election.  I have a hard time believing R-71 is doing better in Skagit (Glenn Beck Co) and Clallam while it's trailing by 6% or more in Pierce Co.  Is Pierce Co the place all the disaffected blue collar, evangelical, pissed-off Palin fanbase hang out?  (The 7/161 corridor in Pierce Co sure feel a like an eerie mix of Tennessee and West Virgina).

The King Co Executive race is running pretty close to my prediction of a 15% margin.  In Bellevue, the progressive slate running for City Council are all trailing by significant margins.

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Thanks alcon for your insights - it really adds some context to the results.  I was in the North Tacoma area around N 18 St and Puget Sound Ave recently and that area has a certain New England old-money feel to me.  It was also where I saw the first approve R-71 lawn signs.

Pretty surprised that R-71 is running about even in Sumner though.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

King Co Mail Ballot Return Stats 11/6 Update @8:00pm

Total Issued - 1084591   
Received Today - 106962
Cumulative Received To Date - 565993   
% Received - 52.18

King Co Results Update #2 @ 8:00pm

Referendum Measure No. 71

APPROVED       323525    67.72%
REJECTED       154214    32.28%

County Executive short and full term

Susan Hutchison       193282    41.40%
Dow Constantine       272762    58.42%
Write-in                       867              0.19%

CITY OF SEATTLE

Mayor

Mike McGinn       85416    50.31%
Joe Mallahan       83032    48.91%
Write-in               1328    0.78%

Looking good King County!  The R-71 approval % are far outpacing Kerry's and only 2.25% below Obama's blowout.  Eastern WA must be pissed!

I think McGinn has this one in the bag.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Pierce County zoomed in on Tacoma area (Election Night only, it's gotten a bit more Reject since)


See what I said about going past South 19th?

Agreed.  What are the white precincts?  Are those the privacy suppressed areas?  And is that purple precinct a tie?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Yea, McGinn has clearly won this.

All this cycle I've really, really wanted to like McGinn, but I keep having nagging doubts about him. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

McGinn seems to be a more genuine candidate but I shudder at the thought of having the Alaska Way and 520 issue reopened for another lost decade of wrangling.  And now that the entire Kemper Freeman endorsed slate has won in Bellevue watch for lawsuits and delays in keeping the East Link alignment out of downtown Bellevue.  This Seattle Process never fails to amaze me.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Random question for Stranger Than Fiction and any other new members: Where do you guys live?? It would be interesting to know if you could provide any fresh, local perspectives on certain areas...

Bellevue, WA currently.  Moved here from Fairfield County, CT a year ago.  Also lived in Upstate NY, WI and OH.  I'm still pretty up-to-date on Northeastern political developments.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

I can understand disliking Brad Owen, but I think shooting his son is a little extreme?

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2010238814_webdoubleshoot09.html

Pretty disturbing news.  As an aside, are Brad Owen and Brian Sonntag considered DINOs for Washington State?  I don't know much about Owens but I recall seeing Sonntag at a tea party and he's regarded as Tim Eyman's and Rob McKenna's favorite Democrat.  What is the likelihood for either of them to become Governor?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Looking at past gubernatorial elections, it now looked pretty amazing and improbable that former Governor Gary Locke did so well in Eastern Washington in 1996 and 2000.  He won 57% of the vote in Spokane Co, 51% in Walla Walla Co and came within a point of winning the GOP bastions of Benton and Franklin Co in 2000.  And this was running against a candidate with a plan from God in 1996 and a talk-show host in 2000 - natural constituencies for conservative Eastern Washington.  On the other hand, he seemed to have slightly underperformed in King Co (66%) by today's standards.

My question is has the state become more polarized in the ensuing years?  Was Gary Locke still relatively popular when he left office and how do Washingtonians today view him in general?  Was he viewed as governor of one Washington or just another Subaru driving liberal from Seattle?   Thanks for any comments.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

I agree with everything Ogre Mage said. And to expand on the last sentence of his post, I think Gregoire is going to go down as one of the best Governors in state history. Her record thus far has been pretty phenomenal all things considered (although I and other liberals will naturally continue to prod her to go further).

I'm also a little annoyed with her right now for jumping on the silly "return-ballots-by-election-day" bandwagon.

I've always wondered why Gregoire has such unimpressive ratings if she is so good, as you guys said.
But Ogre Mage's explanation makes sense.  
Too bad that she didn't rub off some of her boldness and decisiveness on Obama.

Some of Gregoire's suffering approval has to do with the divisiveness of the 2004 elections and the fact she's willing to spend political capital to achieve goals, like Meeker and I said.  And many governors have bad approvals these days given the economy.

There is, however, another element.  Whereas Locke was a good campaigner, Gregoire isn't.  I don't think the glad-handing aspect of politics is her strength.  And the governor's communications office is often regarded as the weak link in her chain -- I hear there's been a lot of turnover there.

Nice analysis alcon, bgwah, Ogre.  My impression of Gov Locke was he's a likable guy who governed competently without making a lot of waves.    You know, being subjected to the endless vitriol directed at Gregoire in the media you'd think she's in the same league as Granholm, Patterson and Schwarzenegger.  Her record has been pretty moderate and she's navigated through budget issues without raising taxes or causing a California style meltdown.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Milton (part): 43.06%
Pacific (part): 36.36%

Why are Milton and Pacific so conservative?  Are these sparsely populated industrial areas or wingnut enclaves?

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Exactly the area I had in mind.  Although isn't the Elk Plain-Graham-Spanaway corridor heavily populated by military personnel and cops, firefighters?  I noticed there is a Barista Gone Wild stand at SR-7 and 217 St Ct E in Spanaway.  Perhaps worth checking out?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

First, a really strong performance in that rich hilly area where all the streets are named after mountains (is there an official name for it so I don't sound dumb? )

Squak Mountain?

That would be it - although I'm unaware of an official area/subdivision name.  Mostly consisting of older middle-class neighborhood, with some very affluent folks on the summit (over 1000 ft).  Its one of those areas that the strong performance by Kerry and Obama kinda surprised me.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Wow, no wonder it feels so pro gay-rights here, Issaquah is even stronger than Bellevue. Probably thanks to new development.

The 8th is definitely more supportive of it than the 6th or 9th. The Eastside is wary of taxes, but is very socially liberal. Drugs, sex, gay marriage, civil liberties, you name it; this is probably the most non-religious and least socially conservative suburban area in the country. Plus the 8th includes a large chunk of rural King and Pierce County, so the Eastside must have supported r71 by nearly 60%.

Eastern Washington really sucked.

Your observation is correct.  The Eastside, which I consider as the area south and east of the Snohomish-King County Line to SR900/I-90, certainly fits these characteristics.  It has a strong libertarian lean - free market and pro-trade, very socially liberal folks who also happen to be quite pro-gun rights.  As a former Republican turned Libertarian, the Eastside is one of the few areas of the country that fit this description.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

The surprise announcement by Rep Brian Baird in WA-3 not to seek reelection promises to bring on one of the most watched and bitterly fought Congressional races for 2010.  The WA-3 has a PVI of even and was carried by Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2000 and 2004.  The district is anchored by booming Clark County, includes all of Skamania, Lewis, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties before terminating at the Olympia suburbs of Thurston County.  Realistically, I could envision this district being represented by a Republican before WA-8 would.  Potential candidates for the open seat are:

Democrats:

Rep Deb Wallace (LD-17)
Sen Craig Pridemore (SD-49)

Republicans:

David Castillo
Jon Russell (Washougal Councilmember)
Dave Hedrick
Jaime Herrera (LD-18)

Question: Why is Clark County and SW Washington in general is so conservative-leaning?  Is it an outgrowth of the booming growth from suburbanites fleeing the socially liberal Portland suburbs?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Washington just may get that coveted 10th Congressional seat!

From the Secretary of State's office.

Lucky 13? WA population keeps on growing
by David Ammons | December 23rd, 2009

Washington 13th in censusNew Census projections show that we’re on the move in Washington — people moving in from other states and folks having babies.  In the past decade, we’ve grown by 13 percent and are now the 13th largest state!  And it could be Lucky 13 if we wind up gaining a new congressional seat.

We’ve grown by nearly 100,000 during the last year and — drum roll please — our new statewide population number is nearly 6.7 million. It’s 6,664,195, up over 770,000 from the April, 2000, number of 5,894,143.

A decade ago, we were the 15th most populous state.

Is our population growth enough to pick up a 10th congressional seat? It’s too early to say for sure, especially since the new national Census of 2010 still awaits, to give us the official numbers.  A year ago, the analysts at Election Data Services put us in the small cluster of states that could vie for the 435th and final congressional seat.  Oregon is another possible winner.  Some states are losing population relative to the rest of the country and others are growing faster than most of the rest of the USA.

The rejiggering of the 435 districts among the states, to make representation more equitable, is called “reapportionment.”

Once we know for sure how many districts we have, the US and state constitutions require us to “redistrict,” meaning to redraw our districts (both congressional and legislative) so that they are of equal population.

In Washington, happily, a voter-approved constitutional amendment assigns that duty not to the Legislature, but to a bipartisan citizen commission — two Rs and two Ds are the voting members and they appoint a fifth person to serve as non-voting chair.  Maps must be agreed to by at least three commissioners, and the Legislature’s vote is basically up-or-down.  This process already is under way at the staff level at the state Elections Division, and commissioners will be picked in 2011.  New districts take effect in 2012.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Looks reasonable for a 7D-3R delegation under this map.  WA-3 turns slightly Republican and WA-8 strongly Democrat - it should be enough to flip parties for these two seats under this map.  WA-8 becomes at least 60% Obama.  Maybe something like this will finally convince Reichert to pack it in.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Debolt will not be running to replace Baird. Meanwhile Heck will announce this week if he intends to run or not. Personally I am about 90% sure that he will, you don't loan yourself $100,000 just to explore the waters.

The folks over at SSP branded DeBolt a "rather nasty piece of work".  Nice.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Say what you will about The Stranger, but this is a helpful summary of the fates of recent bills.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2010/02/05/bills-on-olympia-what-died-what-lived#more

***

Also, the expansion of medical marijuana law to allow other medical specialists (like physician assistants) to prescribe it passed with 37 Ayes and 11 Nays in the State Senate.  The votes:

Republicans
Yes (9): Becker [Eatonville], Brandland [Bellingham], Carrell [Lakewood], Delvin [Richland], Hewitt [Walla Walla], King [Yakima], McCaslin [Spokane Valley], Parlette [Wenatchee], Pflug [Maple Valley].

No (: Benton [Vancouver], Honeyford [Sunnyside], Morton [Kettle Falls], Roach [Auburn], Schoesler [Ritzville], Stevens [Arlington], Swecker [Rochester], Zarelli [Ridgefield].

Excused (1): Holmquist [Moses Lake].

I'm really surprised by the Yes vote from Becker (R-Eatonville).   I'm of the impression she is a hard right conservative.

[Stranger Than Fiction]

Quick and dirty State Leg round-up now that all the votes are in

State Senate
Safe D: 21st, 29th, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 36th, 37th, 38th, 43rd, 46th
Likely D: 26th
Lean D: 48th
Toss-up: 30th, 41st, 44th
Lean R: 6th, 45th
Likely R: 47th
Safe R: 7th, 8th, 13th, 15th, 31st, 42nd

Projected Republican gains of 3-6 seats (7 needed for takeover)

State House
Safe D: 3rd #1, 3rd #2, 11th #1, 11th #2, 22nd #1, 22nd #2, 27th #1, 27th #2, 29th #1, 29th #2, 31st #2, 32nd #1, 32nd #2, 33rd #1, 33rd #2, 34th #1, 34th #2, 36th #1, 36th #2, 37th #1, 37th #2, 43rd #1, 43rd #2, 46th #1, 46th #2
Likely D: 19th #1, 19th #2, 21st #1, 23rd #2, 24th #1, 30th #1, 38th #2, 40th #1, 40th #2, 41st #2, 45th #2, 47th #2, 48th #1, 48th #2, 49th #1
Lean D: 21st #2, 23rd #1, 26th #2, 38th #1, 41st #1, 49th #2
Toss-up: 1st #1, 1st #2, 24th #2, 28th #1, 28th #2, 35th #1, 44th #1, 45th #1
Lean R: 17th #1, 35th #2, 42nd #2
Likely R: 6th #2, 17th #2, 25th #2, 30th #2, 42nd #1
Safe R: 2nd #1, 2nd #2, 4th #1, 4th #2, 5th #1, 5th #2, 6th #1, 7th #1, 7th #2, 8th #1, 8th #2, 9th #1, 9th #2, 10th #1, 10th #2, 12th #1, 12th #2, 13th #1, 13th #2, 14th #1, 14th #2, 15th #1, 15th #2, 16th #1, 16th #2, 18th #1, 18th #2, 20th #1, 20th #2, 25th #1, 26th #1, 31st #1, 39th #1, 39th #2, 44th #2, 47th #1

Projected Republican gains of 11-15 (14 needed for takeover)

So it looks like at this point the State House is in reach for the Republicans if most of the races fall their way. The Senate looks a little more difficult but still possible if everything falls into place. There's also the possibility of Sheldon flipping sides if the Republicans are only a seat away.

In looking at historical data, the WA State House was 65-32 D from 1993-1994 right before the GOP wave of 94.  I realize that the Democrats only gained dominance of all 6 seats in the Seattle Eastside House Districts #41, 45, 48 in 2008, so did the Dems have a substantial base in the Eastern Washington during the early 90s?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

What caused Mercer Island to go Dem in the past few years or whatever?  I remember when it was comfortably GOP.

Probably the same aversion for social conservatism in moderate, affluent suburban areas in the state and around the country that swung many historically GOP areas Dem. The same can be observed throughout Bellevue/Kirkland/Redmond/Issaquah etc.

IIRC, Mercer Island had been voting Dem at the Governor and Presidential levels since 2000.

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I agree with you that any Dem losses in LDs #41, 45 and 48 this season should be temporary.
It is a matter of time before Democrats gains in LD #5 in its present form. Whatcom/Skagit/Island Co has been trending Dem in recent cycles, so LD #10 and #42 are opportunities for future Democrat gains.  

I'm more concerned about conservative blue collar districts such as LDs #25 (Puyallup), #28 (Lakewood/Steilacomb/Dupont), #30 (Federal Way) and #47 (Covington/Black Diamond/Kent). I believe the GOP is poised to make permanent inroads there.


On another note, any thoughts on why Carnation is so Democratic?

[Stranger Than Fiction]

King County will also start publishing statistics at 8 tonight.

Last updated: 10/20/2010 8:00 PM
King County Cumulative Total

District   Total Issued   Received Today   Cumulative Received To Date   % Received
COUNTYWIDE   1071670   23784   84581    7.89

Ballots were mailed out 10/15.  For historical comparison, 2006 turnout was 63%.