Outside of any swing states/battlegrounds here are some possibilities from west to east:
Alaska-Biden did decent in 2020, and Obama made gains there in 2012.
Hawaii-Incumbents tend to do better than expected.
Utah-State is trending blue, and Trump is a really bad fit there. Biden could possibly crack 40% there.
Colorado-Trending blue as well, and even Bennet did better than Biden 2020. This might be the most likely state on the list for Biden to improve in.
Kansas-Also trending blue, and Biden will probably improve there a little from 2020 due to the trend in Johnson county.
Arkansas-Has been getting redder every election for decades now, but it looks like Rs are close to their ceiling here. It's possible Trump stalls out and Biden manages to get a really small swing here towards him.
Kentucky/West Virginia-Its unclear whether or not Trump is maxed out in Appalachia or not. Even if he isn't the shifts in some of the suburban Kentucky counties might swing the state towards Biden again. In WV he's at risk of losing Monongalia county.
Virginia-It's unclear how much Biden is maxed out in NoVA suburbs and the cities. If he can get another few points from them its possible he improves in the Old Dominion.
Delaware-It's his home state, and its very possible he improves there.
Agree with AR, KY, & WV due to Rs possibly being maxed out.
States like AK, CO, HI, & UT are interesting because those are places where I think RFK could be a major factor. It's still not entirely clear who RFK hurts more, I'm more inclined to think it varies based on state. CO is a place a think RFK will hurt Biden more because you have a lot of young white lefties in Denver, Boulder, & the ski towns who are prone to cast protest votes and who RFK appeals to. I could see RFK cutting into Biden's margin and putting the state in the single digits even if Trump's share of the vote doesn't change.
AK, OTOH, is a state I think RFK can outright win, due to RCV. Of all the states, that is one I'm most interested in. I don't think, however, Biden will improve in HI. Quite the contrary, I think we may see a dramatic rightward shift here. Biden got less votes in the primary than Trump and this was after Haley was out of the race. And it was his second worst state in terms of % after NH, where he was only a write-in. I truly believe his botched response to the Maui wildfires last year has severely tarnished his standing with many Hawaiians. As for Utah, I agree and I also believe that will be one of RFK's stronger states.
Don't know what to make of DE & VA. As for KS, I think it will remain mostly stagnant from 2020. Also a state RFK could do well in.
