Pretty Damning Indictment of Nate Silver

[nhmagic]

Another indictment is the updates over the last two days.  Today, there were four national polls released today, 3 of which showed Romney leads, and one which showed a bare lead for Obama.  His forecast for today - Romney still losing the popular vote, Romney actually losing ground in the electoral vote even when state polls continued to show movement towards Romney if you look at the averages. 

Even more curious, Nate waits till late in the evening to do updates when Romney is doing better.  On days where national polls come in with leads for Obama, he'll give a mid-day update.  I think he's tweaking his model to be beneficial to Obama when favorable Romney polls come in.  Also, look at the weight he gives that crap UNH poll for NH - a 9pt lead for Obama (with the governor's race an 8 pt lead for Hassan).  It's ridiculous.  I can't wait for this election to prove his model wrong; however, I guarantee that he's gonna start moving things toward Romney at the last minute possible to save credibility and give a long explanation as to why the model worked.  Then, the next election democrats will be using it again to say: See look at what Nate says.