JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[xavier110]

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

I live in the district; SurveyUSA's poll is right.

[xavier110]

Gotta comment on NY-01 developments:

Had you asked me about Bishop's chances during the health care town halls in the summer, I would have said he was a goner.

Now things are looking up for him.

First of all, a contentious Republican primary is brewing. There are five or six Republicans fighting for the nomination, among them Nixon's grandson, wealthy businessmen, etc.

Term-limited and popular Independent Suffolk County legislator Jay Schneiderman is considering running on the Independence line. This is definitely to Bishop's advantage, and the more cynical political observer would say has been planned by Bishop and Schneiderman (part of the insiders group of Bishop/Schneiderman/LaValle/Thiele) to ensure his reelection.

Now all he needs is the Conservative Party to deviate from the Republican Party's choice. Or to not endorse anyone at all.

Lean Dem for now.