I think Biden is around a 60-40 favorite
1. He will have vastly more money and a better turnout operation. In fact, the GOP in AZ/MI has never recovered from 2020
2. The median turnout scenario favors highly engaged voters, and the median place double-haters who are highly engaged land is Biden+30
However
1. It is clear that the American people, and almost any plausible American electorate, do not want to reelect Joe Biden. They feel their lives have gotten worse, things are headed in the wrong direction, and there is virtually zero chance that things will improve. A majority of the November electorate, regardless of how they vote, will do so believing that Joe Biden has been a bad President in his first term, and that his second term will be worse than his first.
2 Polling shows these voters consistently fantasizing about getting rid of Biden, whether it manifests in high third-party totals, implausible Trump leads, or hypothetical Haley leads approaching Reagan's 1984 numbers. Hostility to Trump exists, and it is extremely deep as illustrated on this website, but it is relegated to around 46%. Another 10-15% seem hostile to Trump more because his refusal to stand aside is an obstacle to their ability to get rid of Joe Biden than because they fear Trump. If their anger is because they do not believe Trump can win, not because they prefer Joe Biden to him, then even if they also believe Trump will be a bad President, they may well swing to Trump.
All in all, I don't buy the polls as representative of what will happen in November, but I do buy them as indicative of public opinion. A large majority do not want Joe Biden to be President, the number who see Trump as an existential threat are numerous but not quite a majority, and if we had mandatory voting like Australia I think Trump would be a solid favorite. However, the plurality that is most motivated to vote are the anti-Trump fanatics and if turnout is low they may be enough.
I agree with this. Dems need to pray for significant turnout dropoff because a lower turnout with highly engaged voters will be a repeat of 2022 where the swing states almost uniformly go D despite strange things going on elsewhere.
Poll
