2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (user search)
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  2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 117328 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2011, 02:05:01 PM »
« edited: September 30, 2011, 02:19:50 PM by Teddy (SoFE) »

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose)
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2011, 03:58:27 PM »
Quote from: Hatman on September 30, 2011, 03:46:32 PM
The Liberal Party of NL is not dead. When the rural outports want change, it's not likely they'll choose the NDP, they'll pick the Liberals.  Newfoundland could very well be a 3 party system in the coming years. But, if the Tories and NDP duke it out in St. John's, that leaves the Liberals in the rest of the province and could yet win again.
I'll respond to this when I have time, but in short, I can prove using history that you are wrong Tongue
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #27 on: October 02, 2011, 03:57:37 AM »
Not directly related, but Alison Redford won and is the new Premier-designate of Alberta.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #28 on: October 03, 2011, 05:54:53 PM »
This is why I don't project PEI elections Tongue
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2011, 06:00:16 PM »
PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #30 on: October 03, 2011, 06:08:02 PM »
simplistic but sort of true.

Generally, east of C-Town and west of S-Side vote PC, while west of C-Town, and east of S-Side votes Liberal, with the two towns deciding things, but of course there can be 3 or so ridings on either side of that divide that switch - the problem is when you have 27 ridings province wide, 3 or so is a huge chunk.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #31 on: October 03, 2011, 06:16:51 PM »
I'm talking about elections not since 1996 but 1896 Tongue Historically the Tories have swept western prince.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #32 on: October 03, 2011, 06:23:30 PM »
TV seems to be disagreeing with me... maybe I should do a little research before talking about my arse Tongue I'll get back to you.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #33 on: October 03, 2011, 06:27:59 PM »
The last string of competitive votes:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1986
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1982
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1979
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1978
Note the maps
[brag] oh wait, lets see who made the maps before we rely on them
oh oh wait, it's me![/brag]

Looks like I basically got it backwards. The Tories had their strength in the centre of the island, not the Liberals, and the Liberals won on the fringes, not the Tories. The reason the Tories are doing so well since the 90's in Kings County is thanks to Binns.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #34 on: October 03, 2011, 06:32:14 PM »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1966
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_general_election,_1943

Yea, I got reversed somehow. Centre=PC
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #35 on: October 03, 2011, 07:23:04 PM »
Did the wikipedia page on this go down? I was editing in results but now I cant get on.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #36 on: October 03, 2011, 08:13:37 PM »
The 2011 map has the wrong riding
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #37 on: October 03, 2011, 09:40:34 PM »
NWT election is in full swing.

A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. Also, A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. Also, A Non-Partisan Independent has been elected. There's one riding where A Non-Partisan Independent is running against A Non-Partisan Independent is running against A Non-Partisan Independent. I predict the Non-Partisan Independent will win.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #38 on: October 03, 2011, 09:53:13 PM »
And my final post on the NWT election is this:
http://www.electionsnwtresults.ca/esTerritorialResults.htm

Sorry but this is pathetic. The "live election coverage" is not even reporting on live election coverage. It's just a bunch of natives speaking in their native language one after another in front of radio mics. I'm embarrassed to be in the same country as this. It's not a population thing, don't give me that, Yukon elections are exciting as you'll all see in a week. This? This... This is pathetic.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #39 on: October 03, 2011, 11:48:58 PM »
I've done some, er, poll by poll maps.

I couldn't decide which one was more vomitworthy so I've included both.



The Tories and Liberals tied in two (one got mis-labled somehow as straight tory). No other party won.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #40 on: October 03, 2011, 11:50:32 PM »
Smid, you do one for the Island Party?
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #41 on: October 04, 2011, 01:28:08 AM »
http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?authuser=0&ie=UTF8&hl=en&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=214668381355121949879.0004ae732876459c6e67d
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #42 on: October 04, 2011, 01:32:15 AM »
Oh! Hey! PEI uses the same polling districts for Federal and Provincial elections! Heh! That makes comparisons easy Smiley
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #43 on: October 04, 2011, 06:04:50 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2011, 06:08:53 AM by Teddy (SoFE) »
The Evangeline region is the Acadian region of Quebec. It's also the "Capital" of Acadia, sort of.

Some info
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrams_Village,_Prince_Edward_Island

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9gion_%C3%89vang%C3%A9line

http://www.teleco.org/museeacadien/anglais/fondatim_a.htm
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #44 on: October 04, 2011, 06:35:13 PM »
Quote from: lilTommy on October 04, 2011, 09:43:30 AM
Quote from: Lewis Honeyboy Trondheim on October 04, 2011, 09:27:26 AM
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 03, 2011, 09:53:13 PM
And my final post on the NWT election is this:
http://www.electionsnwtresults.ca/esTerritorialResults.htm

Sorry but this is pathetic. The "live election coverage" is not even reporting on live election coverage. It's just a bunch of natives speaking in their native language one after another in front of radio mics. I'm embarrassed to be in the same country as this. It's not a population thing, don't give me that, Yukon elections are exciting as you'll all see in a week. This? This... This is pathetic.
So? There are a lot of different languages to cover, should each have its own complete coverage?

Thats also mildly offensive, the NWT is not the Yukon, and is nowhere near the south. The majority are artic aboriginal peoples so i don't expect there to be much english outside Yellowknife. The Yukon has always been more "white" and anglo, you can thank the goldrush for that ... I totally agree the consensus system is a bore and by the sounds of things isn't very effective. There is actually a facebook page set up to discuss that very thing i believe.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/NWT.elec.17/
With political parties you get a standard message and i think that helps attracts candidates cause there is a central party helping to get candidates in place.
I'm very excited to see how things shape up in the Yukon (to show how serious the NDP is, Olivia Chow was campaigning up there!)

There is no reason aboriginal peoples can not have political parties.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #45 on: October 04, 2011, 08:01:17 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2141255983 here we go http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitobavotes2011/
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #46 on: October 04, 2011, 08:20:09 PM »
Now the results are coming in bigtime. Looks good news.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #47 on: October 04, 2011, 08:23:23 PM »
CBC will probably do a projection for an NDP majority within 10 minutes.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #48 on: October 04, 2011, 08:25:50 PM »
CBC's live feed just cut off... but I reloaded. its cool.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #49 on: October 04, 2011, 08:39:44 PM »
If the CBC won't call it, I will: NDP majority.
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