2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (user search)
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  2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase. (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 117832 times)
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #75 on: October 11, 2011, 05:50:49 PM »
PC 32
NDP 8
Lib 3

20 minutes in

CBC hinting they are getting close to a call
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #76 on: October 11, 2011, 05:53:29 PM »
23 minutes in

PC 36
NDP 6
Lib 2

Looks like I might be off about the call!
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #77 on: October 11, 2011, 05:55:34 PM »
CBC makes the call. PC Majority.

I was 1 minute off lol
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #78 on: October 11, 2011, 05:59:23 PM »
One riding left to report (expected to go very strong NDP)

PC 36
NDP 8
Lib 3

pop vote with about 10% of polls in.
59% PC
22% NDP
19% Lib
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #79 on: October 11, 2011, 06:02:52 PM »
All ridings now in
PC 39
NDP 6
Lib 3

The NDP has not been below 5, and the Liberals above 3, all night.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #80 on: October 11, 2011, 06:11:06 PM »
NDP continues to hold The Straits.

PC 39
NDP 5
Lib 4

PC 56%
NDP 25%
Lib 18%
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #81 on: October 11, 2011, 06:12:41 PM »
PC 38
Lib 5
NDP 5

Libs in second for the first time tonight
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #82 on: October 11, 2011, 06:15:27 PM »
Quote from: Marokai Breakneck on October 11, 2011, 06:13:37 PM
Liberals risen to 5, and tied the NDP in seat-count. Eek.

In the event of a tie, the current people keep their jobs, so the Liberals would remain OO
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #83 on: October 11, 2011, 06:31:03 PM »
PC 37
NDP 6
Lib 5



Also hash is wrong about everything he said.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #84 on: October 11, 2011, 06:41:58 PM »
They are talking about who would be OO, and none of them have a clue.

The precedent is as I said, though the Speaker makes the call, speakers almost always go with precedent.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #85 on: October 11, 2011, 06:50:05 PM »
http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?art=1075&param=158

Popular vote might actually matter
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #86 on: October 11, 2011, 06:55:02 PM »
Aylward has not been able to win his seat
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #87 on: October 11, 2011, 06:56:48 PM »
http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?param=62&art=52

Interesting case where the Leader of the Opposition and the Official Opposition were from two different parties. I'll keep digging.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #88 on: October 11, 2011, 07:01:06 PM »
The NDP has lost burin.

PC 38
NDP 5
Lib 5
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #89 on: October 11, 2011, 07:09:24 PM »
NDP has won The Straits.

Looks like the final will be
PC 38
NDP 5
Lib 5

The speaker will have to make the call, and with all the attention paid, this will be precedent setting.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #90 on: October 11, 2011, 07:10:49 PM »
Humber Valley is the only one left really.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #91 on: October 11, 2011, 07:14:47 PM »
Presuming the tie stays. Here are the options for the speaker.


1 - Incumbency. The Liberals were OO so keep them OO in all ways.
2 - Popular Support. The NDP has won support of the people, make them OO in all ways.
3 - Combo Yukon Style. Keep Jones as LOO, but make the NDP the Official Opposition Caucus.
4 - Opposite Combo. Make Michael the LOO since she's the only leader who has won, but keep the Liberals as the OO caucus due to incumbency.
5 - Rotate or Share. Somehow split the duties and rights of the Official Opposition between the two parties.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #92 on: October 11, 2011, 07:23:50 PM »
PC 37
Lib 6
NDP 5

Liberal OO
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #93 on: October 11, 2011, 07:40:25 PM »
With 16 polls left (out of about 900)

PC - 56.11%
NDP - 24.48%
Lib - 19.21%


edit - Marokai, this map I just posted has given me an idea for electoral reform. "Second Past The Post"
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #94 on: October 11, 2011, 07:48:15 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on September 30, 2011, 02:05:01 PM

Liberals
Cartwright (only solid seat)
Burgeo (possible loss as well)

less likely:
Port de Grave
The Isles of Notre Dame
Bellevue
Bay Islands
Humber Valley
Torngat Mountains



NDP :
Signal Hill (most solid)
Labrador West (so solid I'd eat my shirt if they lose) omnomnom?
St. John's Centre
St. John's East
Burin-Placentia
St. John's North
St. John's South

less likely:
St. John's West
Lake Melville
Humber Valley
Port de Grave
Lewisporte
Placentia
Bellevue
Conception Bay East
and Virginia Waters, the Premier's own riding

So that's 16 ridings, MAX, that could go NDP, and 8 Liberal (with 3 overlap).
That means that I see the PC party winning in the other 27 ridings, and no way in hell they will lose those 27 ridings; with a maximum limit for the party of 45.


Ridings I said would go PC
St. Barbe
The Straits
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #95 on: October 11, 2011, 08:14:38 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2011, 08:18:08 PM by Teddy (SoFE) »
217,711 total ballots cast (as per elections newfoundland)

PC - 56.09% - 122,115 (~10)
NDP - 24.64% - 53,645 (~10)
Lib - 19.07% - 51,515 (~10)
Oth - 0.19% - 415 (~10)

 (~10) = Give or take 10 votes.


In Question Period, this should give the Liberals 16 or 17 minutes and the NDP 14 or 13.
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #96 on: October 11, 2011, 08:19:02 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 07:35:42 PM
Second Place map:



NDP - 23
Lib - 15
PC - 10
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #97 on: October 11, 2011, 08:21:41 PM »
Quote from: Smid on October 11, 2011, 08:20:27 PM
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 11, 2011, 08:14:38 PM
217,711 total ballots cast (as per elections newfoundland)

PC - 56.09% - 122,115 (~10)
NDP - 24.64% - 53,645 (~10)
Lib - 19.07% - 51,515 (~10)
Oth - 0.19% - 415 (~10)

 (~10) = Give or take 10 votes.


In Question Period, this should give the Liberals 16 or 17 minutes and the NDP 14 or 13.

My spreadsheet gave slightly different vote totals - I was using the Elections Newfoundland website.
Lard Tunderin Jeezus, don't keep it ta yerself
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #98 on: October 11, 2011, 08:42:49 PM »
The live stream will probably die in 15 mins, then we have a hour before the Yukon election (which won't take this long)
Logged
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

WWW
« Reply #99 on: October 11, 2011, 09:00:33 PM »
Quote from: Sibboleth on October 11, 2011, 08:54:04 PM
lol, Aylward didn't even come close to winning: PC 49.3, Lib 32.7, NDP 16.5, NA 1.5

Anyways, looking over the results, Labrador West is the one genuine disappointment to me. They actually came closer next door in Lake Melville. Backlash against the imprisoned former MHA, or a popular incumbent? Both?

Interesting result just spotted: Liberals fall to just 12% in Bellevue, which used to be a stronghold and then some.

Labrador votes for local people. It's a very, very rural area. The NDP Candidate was "new" to the area.
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