Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

BONAVENTURE

Last update: 21:45:32
Number of polling stations:  126 / 126
 
Candidates and
political affiliation   Valid votes   Percentage of valid ballots (%)[2]   Majority
Arsenault, Damien (P.L.Q./Q.L.P.)   7 887   49,46 %   1 952
Roy, Sylvain (P.Q.)   5 935   37,22 %   
Chartier, Patricia (Q.S.)   1 422   8,92 %   
Painchaud, Georges (A.D.Q.)   365   2,29 %   
Cloutier, Jean (P.V.Q./G.P.Q.)   205   1,29 %   
Zibeau, Martin (IND)   131   0,82 %   
 
Valid ballots:   15 945   99,04 %   
Rejected ballots:   154   0,96 %   
Total voter turnout:   16 099       
Registered electors:   29 510       
Voter turnout:   54,55 %   

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

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[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wonderful, Wonderful. Let me know of any changes in the assembly.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Moving on, 4 MNAs (Caire, Picard, Charette, Rathee) have joined the CAQ. So now their caucus numbers 8.

This is still not appearing on Wikipedia? Do you have a link that Wikipedia will accept that proves this; if so, I will add it myself.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Wikipedia has indeed been updated
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/39th_National_Assembly_of_Quebec
Remember that the ADQ still has to vote on merger, which is why I highly doubted the ADQ members, who are still ADQ members as the ADQ still exists, were also somehow simultaneously CAQ members.

I wonder who is leading this temporary CAQ caucus, now that is something I find rather interesting, but I presume the legislature is out of session and wont be back until after the merger, so, the CAQ may be doing the smart thing, and naming nobody.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Aye, and probably won't ask for one until the merger is complete - and likely at that time the speaker will say yes because saying no would be an embarrassment to the PLQ and PQ.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My father watched this hockey news roundup, the same sh*t every 15 mins over and over. One of their top stories that made the roundup was the english coach thingy.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1110577--cat-becomes-member-of-coalition-avenir-quebec?bn=1

This implies the CAQ has 5K or perhaps 6K members

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Direct or Indirect!!!?? this is important!!!


Edit - Direct!! oooo
 

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

OK, I admit I ROFLed there.

On another note, a 3-way race is shaping up. Maybe Teddy or Hatman can try a projection for us?

http://www2.canada.com/story.html?id=5998836

I trust Volkov:
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/quebec-la-post-2011-and-equipe.html

who also has an Alberta projection FTR
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2012/01/alberta-in-2012.html

and not only uses his successful system but mine from my old Riding by Riding website
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.com/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
which was the most successful of the last federal election (and the last BC election too)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

May I use this as a base for creating my own map?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

As I told earl: anytime that you can make me a map, and alls I need to do is put the numbers on it, I am happy!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Just to note in case anyone has wandered into the thread, Earl's venom towards Volkov is on the grounds that he is a member of the Liberal Party.

And FTR; his Ontario projection
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/quick-ontario-election-post-mortem.html
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/ontario-2011-full-predictions.html
and mine
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/2011/10/teddys-election-projection-for-ontario.html

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

He's partisan?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/politics/story/2012/01/18/quebec-provinical-conservative-party.html

New Party!

No, not the other new party... or the other other new party..... a new new party!!


My prediction for the next election, after the ADQ rejects the merger, and vote splitting allows the greens to win seats is:

PLQ 19
PQ 18
ADQ 17
QS 16
CAQ 15
CON 14
ON 13
GRN 12
Plus a random Independent, who will end up becoming Premier in a coalition of the QS, PQ, PLQ, and CON.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the NDP is getting a provincial party too, there might be movements to a non-partisan party of some sort, and given this, we could well see the equality party try to make a comeback. Hell at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of movement to regrow the old Social Credit party, and with vote splitting, they could well easily win seats.

Remember too that Quebec is quite Catholic, and there have been movements for a Catholic party in the past. Given the options, I could even see a revival of student politics and a sort of youth or Student party.

PLQ 9
PQ 9
ADQ 9
QS 9
CAQ 9
CON 9
ON 9
GRN 9
NDP 9
NP 9
EQ 9
SC 9
CAT 9
STU 8

I also forsee a tie in Sherbrooke, and thus only Half of Jean Charest would be elected. Which half would be divisive, but I think that somehow they'd come to an agreement.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hum.

So the CAQADQPCQ would be so close the PLQ that they could merge into the CAQADQPCQPLQ which could re-arrange the letter's in it's name to be the CACAPPDLQQQQ, or poo-kew for short.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anyway, enough jokes from me.

I think Duceppe could do very well if he gets the PQ leadership.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What is your blog?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Whoo!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I actually think the new PCQ could take votes in the Quebec City area, and could bring the CAQ down "to size" in QC, compared to the ADQ, for which it was their best region. Meanwhile the CAQ would be up (compared to the ADQ) in Montreal, leaving them with a balanced result across the province.

Also, graphic pack! Use for whatever.



I find it a bit amusing that each large party has a small party alternative.

For those who don't think the Greens and Liberals are alternatives to one another I say 2 things:
1 - Read the policy book of each federal party
and
2 - Look at the vote patterns for PVQ, they are very anglo, like the PLQ. Where one does well, the other does well.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

CAQ members are split on sovereignty 41-47, leaning against.

Top issues...
PLQ, healthcare and jobs
CAQ, healthcare, jobs, and corruption
PQ, healthcare, and sovereignty
QS, healthcare, and education
sovereigntists, healthcare, jobs, and sovereignty
federalists, healthcare, and jobs.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Oh, and the obligatory seat projection.
C54
L39
P28
S4

Hopefully the letters are obvious, I'd like to keep using them.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

They need a slogan to sell themselves. How about:

CAQ, man, vote for it. CAQ, man, they'r the shit!