How likely is a Canadian-style outcome for the UK?

[mileslunn]

A hung parliament (the norm in Canada) appears very likely at this point.

Actually hung parliaments have not historically been the norm in Canada either.  It was only due to the creation of the Bloc Quebecois that they started to become the norm as they always take a sizeable chunk of seats in Quebec making it difficult for either party to win a majority.  Chretien did win three majorities in the 90s in spite of this since he was able to sweep Ontario due to the divided right.  Once the right united, the ability to sweep Ontario ended.  Even though in Britain you have the Plaid Cymru and Scottish National Party, their overall clout in parliament is small compared to the Bloc Quebecois.

This time will probably be a hung parliament due to the closeness.  As a side note, how likely do you think the chances are of the party that comes in third in terms of votes wins the most seats.  I could see Labour Party coming in third in votes and winning the most seats.  Likewise I could see the Liberal Democrats coming in first in terms of votes, but third in seats.  I cannot see the Conservatives being in either scenario although I could see them winning the popular vote, but second in terms of seats.

[mileslunn]

A hung parliament (the norm in Canada) appears very likely at this point.

Actually hung parliaments have not historically been the norm in Canada either.  It was only due to the creation of the Bloc Quebecois that they started to become the norm as they always take a sizeable chunk of seats in Quebec making it difficult for either party to win a majority.  Chretien did win three majorities in the 90s in spite of this since he was able to sweep Ontario due to the divided right.  Once the right united, the ability to sweep Ontario ended.  Even though in Britain you have the Plaid Cymru and Scottish National Party, their overall clout in parliament is small compared to the Bloc Quebecois.

Yeah, that's true, but hung parliaments are and will continue to be the norm, until Canadian politicians learn to accept coalitions. The last time a conservative party won a majority without winning Quebec was in 1930, before a real multi-party system developed, and the Liberals have only ever won a majority without Quebec in the Chrétien years, when they had all those seats in Southern Ontario that they'll never get back. The current four-party system doesn't allow for a majority under everyday circumstances.

That could change after BC, Alberta, and Ontario get more seats as this will weaken Quebec's influences.  In fact I think the Tories would have come pretty close to a majority last time around under the new seat arrangements depending on where the new seats are located.  Still minorities do look likely for the foreseeable future, although I think if the NDP and Liberals merged you would see the end of them.  Not that the they would always win, but they would win sometimes and also enough Blue Liberals would probably go to the Tories as well as some NDPers would stay home in disgust.

For one thing Britain is much smaller country in terms of area so there aren't the regional differences to the same degree as Canada.  Minority governments at the provincial level occur, but far less often.

[mileslunn]

I also wonder what role the Queen could have to play as if the party who win the most seats proved they couldn't govern, we should grant another election right away or let the next most party have a chance.  And also if there is hung parliament and the Labour Party doesn't win the most seats, but insists on hanging on anyways, would she agree or would she insist on the party with the most seats getting first shot.  I know we pretty much use the same system, so I am guessing the Queen's role is much like the governor general in Canada.