Indiana

[mileslunn]

Ohio is far more urbanized than Indiana, while North Carolina has a large transplant population which Indiana does not.  Lets remember Bush won Indiana by 20 points while only narrowly won Ohio, so Indiana is far more favourable to the Republicans than Ohio.  Obama only won here in 2008 due to the fact the manufacturing sector which is large in Indiana was hard hit by the recession.  I agree Romney will win by a much smaller margin than Bush did in either 2000 and 2004, but I doubt Obama can win here.  The best case scenario is Romney by 5 points in Obama's case.  Also Obama campaigned heavily in Indiana whereas much like previous Democrat leaders he has largely written it off.  Never mind the Democrats are mostly Blue Dog Democrats in Indiana thus why it often votes Dem in Senate, congressional, and state elections but rarely presidential so it is pretty tough to win as a Democrat nationally unless you are willing to alienate your liberal base and off course this could lead to a lower turnout amongst them or many going for a further left party like was the case in 2000 with Ralph Nader.