When will the next BC election be

[mileslunn]

Predict how long the Current BC government will last.  My prediction is it will fall sometime in 2019.

[mileslunn]

There is zero chance the Greens will force an election until after the referendum on electoral reform takes place and if it passes it will take a year or more for the new PR system to be implemented and proclaimed. For that reason I predict the next BC election will be in 2020

I agree with that, which is why I said 2019.  I think the danger of it falling sooner is more if one of them loses a by-election, one member is kicked out of the party, one member quits the party to sit as an independent.  I feel that is far more likely to bring down the government than the NDP withdrawing their support.  I think until the by-election is completed in Kelowna West they are pretty safe, it is after that to keep an eye on things.  The other question also comes what if the government loses a confidence vote due to the absence of an MLA but they have the possibility of regaining it at a later time.  I've heard conflicting reports as some say one can lose a confidence but still continue as long as they can regain it quickly whereas others say once you lose a confidence motion there is no re-runs so that will be the interesting part.  Off course if Horgan wants an election he could simply on a money bill ask a member to be absent and when the government falls ask the LG for an election, but he has to be careful since if he looks opportunistic I could blow up in his face, just ask Theresa May, David Peterson, or Jim Prentice how their opportunistic calls worked out.

[mileslunn]

Meanwhile, the Green Party will be EXTREMELY reluctant to cause an early election anytime before the electoral reform referendum and if the referendum passes they will be even more reluctant to cause an early election before the new PR system is implemented and ready to go...meaning that barring an NDP or Green MLA from a marginal seat suddenly dying - this government may well last right up to October 2021!

Agree on the Green Party, I think the danger is more someone quits the party or gets kicked out as that seems to happen, mind you it could just as easily happen to a BC Liberal too.  I do tend to think though 2019 could be of interest as that is when the next federal election is so wouldn't be surprised if an MLA or two decide to resign to go federally and thus that was my main reason for choosing 2019.

[mileslunn]

8. Hypothetically speaking, if a Watts-led BC Lib party, next spring, enjoys a, let's say, 20% lead in opinion polls consistently, will the BC Greens continue to support the BC NDP? One would think that the BC Greens would "not want to wear" any major drop in BC NDP support.

If the BC Liberals pull a large lead the Greens will not want to pull the plug until at least the referendum is done and that assumes PR passes as they know they will take a hit so at least switching to PR would probably mean more seats even if less votes than what they have now.  I also don't think either side is likely to have a 10 point lead or greater for any sustained point of time.  The BC Liberals being in power is too fresh in people's minds and they have too many haters who will never support them no matter what and likewise the NDP is hated by a similarly large segment of the population.  If the BC Liberals do return to power next election (which is not a given at this point, but certainly possible) it will probably be more akin to the 1975 election than the 2001 election.  In 2001 the BC Liberals hadn't been in government since 1949 so they could be different things to different people and thus appeal to a lot more than they could now.

[mileslunn]

The doomsday clock has just moved way back from midnight...the BC NDP managed to convince a BC Liberal Daryl Plecas to be speaker! Plecas has been expelled from the Liberal caucus, but what does he care, he gets a $50,000 raise lots of perks and probably had no intention of running again in the next election. This now gives the NDP and Greens even more breathing room since between Plecas being speaker and Christy Clark having resigned her seat the NDP+Greens now have 44 MLAS and BC Liberals have 41 (and it won't be 42 again for about 7 more months when Clark's Kelowna seat gets filled in a byelection).

So much for all the predictions about how impossible it would be for the NDP to form a stable government. I don't expect another BC election until 2020 at the earliest and maybe not until 2021!

I think this does definitely extend the life.  I would now say 2020 maybe 2021.  I saw an article by Martyn Brown suggesting the Greens-NDP agree to a 2020 fall election if the BC Liberals put up a speaker so I wonder if they cut that deal but we shall see.  Kelowna West will likely stay BC Liberal so 42-44 after that, but if the BC Liberals somewhere down the line pick up another seat, would he resign as speaker then?  That is the interesting question as I think he might do that, but who knows.

[mileslunn]

I saw an article by Martyn Brown suggesting the Greens-NDP agree to a 2020 fall election if the BC Liberals put up a speaker so I wonder if they cut that deal but we shall see. 

Clearly no "deal" was cut with the BC Liberals since they are all fuming and have apparently expelled Plecas from their caucus!

I meant a deal with Plecas not the BC Liberal caucus.  Also it turns out he was not ejected although won't be surprised if they refuse to sign his nomination papers next time around but doubt he will run again.  Interesting if someone launches a recall against him, my guess is they will but with the high threshold doubt it will succeed.

[mileslunn]

Keep in mind that you cannot launch a recall petition until 18 months after the election AND the threshold is very high...meaning that even if Plecas was successfully recalled the earliest it could realistically happen would be summer 2019.

To the extent there was any deal between the NDP and Plecas personally, the deal would have been "you be agree to be speaker and in exchange you get a cushy job and an extra $50k per year" and if you are Plecas and already on the outs with your party - what's not to like?

True enough on a personal level, but if you are someone who strongly believes in the principles of the BC Liberals philosophically, I fail to see how doing this is helpful that way nonetheless a lot of politicians are opportunists and no doubt the extra 50K is a big thing to encourage someone to do this.  Should be interesting.  There is always the risk the Greens could pull the plug but until the PR referendum is held I don't think there is any chance of that.  Likewise recall will be very tough to do, but I am sure someone will try, but as it has in the past will likely fail.

[mileslunn]

True enough on a personal level, but if you are someone who strongly believes in the principles of the BC Liberals philosophically, I fail to see how doing this is helpful that way nonetheless a lot of politicians are opportunists and no doubt the extra 50K is a big thing to encourage someone to do this. 

Yeah right and what "principles" are those??? We already learned in Clark's "clone speech" that she was more than willing to adopt the entire NDP platform in a desperate bid to stay in power and her party was willing to go along with it! Plecas sounds like a small "l" liberal federal Liberal type who probably just wants to side with whoever is in power.

Considering how hyper partisan BC is, I suspect if you had the reverse where the BC Conservatives were propping up the BC Liberals and the NDP got more seats but not a majority and one of their members did this, they would be pretty outraged.  I think the real thing here is he more or less gave the NDP greater power and whether that is a good thing or not only time will tell, but I doubt too many BC Liberal supporters are happy.  Amongst the general public I doubt it will matter a lot and they will judge on the performance of the government as well as whom the next leader is.

[mileslunn]

Considering how hyper partisan BC is, I suspect if you had the reverse where the BC Conservatives were propping up the BC Liberals and the NDP got more seats but not a majority and one of their members did this, they would be pretty outraged.  

If you had the reverse situation, could you ever imagine the outgoing NDP premier presenting a Throne Speech that was full of ultra rightwing measures from the BC Conservatives had in their platform? I can't

True enough, but my point is due to the closeness each party is playing the speaker to what they think their advantage is.  That being said I suspect next time around the result will be more concise.  If the NDP does a good job they will win a majority and if they do a lousy one the BC Liberals will come back.

Also Christy Clark was a federal Liberal so I don't think she had the strongest principles but went whichever way the wind was blowing.  Gordon Campbell would have never put forward a throne speech like that.  I could however in similar situations see if you had the BC Conservatives as the largest party and the BC Liberals as the junior partner the NDP putting forward a more centrist one to pull away the BC Liberals although that is largely hypothetical anyways.

[mileslunn]

Does the Darryl Plecas speaker deal mean the NDP-Green accord could last the full term?
http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/mla-darryl-plecas-defects-from-b-c-liberals-to-become-speaker

It definitely increases the odds greatly.  Off course if he resigns as MLA which I could see after May 2019 than it might not.  The reason I mention May 2019 is that is when he will be eligible for an MLA pension unless the NDP changes this, but they are probably aware of the risk so will avoid doing it until after that.  I would say there is about a 60-70% chance it lasts the full four years while a 30-40% chance it doesn't, but we shall see.