Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[mileslunn]

Since polls will change I will give a prediction as we get closer, but thoughts on the ridings mentioned below.  Note under Election predictions we already have a section for Ontario so you may want to merge this with https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250768.0 .

Popular vote: 
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:

Seats:
Liberals:
PC:
NDP:
Greens:
Other/Independents:

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- Lib/PC battleground slight edge for PCs now but could change
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell-  PC's favoured but OLP win still possible
Kingston and the Islands- OLP favoured, NDP win possible if they gain momentum, PC only in a perfect three way split.
Peterborough- Usually goes for the winner so probably PCs, OLP and NDP only if either gains a lot of momentum.

905 Belt
Ajax- Leans PC but slight uptick and OLP could hold
Oshawa- NDP/PC battleground so too close to call at the moment.
Vaughan-Woodbridge- Notwithstanding other predictions, tends to be more swingy than most ridings and has demographics in line with Ford Nation so leans PC, but OLP hold still possible.
King-Vaughan-  Likely PCs unless they screw up badly.
Brampton-East-  Solid NDP
Brampton-North- PCs if strong splits, NDP or OLP if progressives coalesce behind one of them.
Mississauga-lake shore- Likely PCs, but choice of Ford who is a bad fit might save Sousa.  Had Elliott been chosen, would have been solid PC
Mississauga-Streetsville- Leans PCs

GTA:
Scarborough Centre- PC/OLP battleground, but could go NDP if they get some momentum.
Scarborough Agincourt- Likely PC, OLP hold only if PCs screw up
Scarborough Southwest- Likely OLP, NDP possible if they get some momentum, PCs only if they win big and see perfect splits.
Eglinton-Lawrence-  OLP/PC battleground, Ford bad fit, but PC base strong here.
Willowdale-  Slight edge for PCs but still competitive.
York Centre- Likely PC (probably one of the first to fall in 416), only stays OLP if they rebound strongly and PCs mess up
Beaches-East York- Leans NDP, but could stay OLP if progressive vote unites behind them.
Davenport-  Likely NDP, OLP hold only if NDP messed up badly.
Toronto-centre - Safe Liberal, only goes NDP if Liberals win 0 seats or close to.
University-Rosedale-  Likely Liberal, but NDP win still possible.  PCs won't win but could play kingmaker in terms of whom do they take more support from.
Etobicoke North- Normally a fairly Liberal riding, but heart of Ford Nation, so likely PC, but Ford has more chance of losing his own riding than the election.  OLP could win and NDP if they surge above 30% provincewide.
Etobicoke Lakeshore-  Slight edge for PCs but OLP still competitive here
Etobicoke Center-  Likely PC, only stays OLP if gap closes.
York South Weston- Too close to call, slight edge NDP but still could stay OLP.  PCs won't win, but will likely do better than normal so which party they gain votes from will be key.
Humber River Black Creek-  OLP/NDP battleground, PCs being kingmaker as they gain a lot of votes but still stay in third but which party they gain most from will lose.

Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington-  Fairly easy PC pick up.  Would be guaranteed with Elliott is leader as Ford is a bad fit, but still 80-90% chance they win this.
Oakville-  Also likely PC pickup but choice of Ford gives OLP a slight chance at holding whereas under Elliott it would have been zero.
St Catherine’s-  Likely PC, but Jim Bradley's personal popularity might save OLP.  NDP only if they manage to win outright, but the better they do the more likely a PC pickup.
Brantford-Brant-  Likely PC, but NDP win possible if above 30% provincewide and PCs fall below 40%.  OLP is toast here and will come in third.
Guelph-  If Greens win any seats this will be it.  OLP win still possible, PCs if you get strong enough splits (they have a ceiling of around 30%), NDP if they win provincewide.
Waterloo- Lean NDP, but PCs if you get strong splits
London North-Centre- PC/NDP battleground primarily, OLP win possible but least likely of the three.

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- Likely NDP pickup, PCs only if perfect splits and NDP bombs election
Sault Ste Marie- Likely PC, NDP if PCs mess up, OLP toast here.

Any other ridings that you predict will change hands that I have not listed:

There are lots of others that could change hands.  Actually Liberal polling numbers are bad enough just about all of theirs are somewhat vulnerable.  PCs asides from Scarborough North and Sault Ste. Marie which they won in by-elections aren't likely to lose anything unless NDP surges to first place and even then only Sarnia-Lambton and Chatham-Kent-Leamington could I see flipping if that happened.

For NDP, they will face challenges from PCs in Niagara Falls, Niagara Centre (less so, but Rust belt so prime territory for Ford to overperform), London West, and Kenora-Rainy River

[mileslunn]

Indeed. Italians love Doug Ford.

Yes.  And Woodbridge has voted Conservative before.  Voting for Ford's PCs is not a radical break from traditional partisan loyalties (i.e. it's not like York South-Weston going Conservative). It's also filled with people with money who are not (in Fordian terms) "elites."

Woodbridge has a tendency to swing hard toward the winner.  You can't simply extrapolate from the last provincial election and conclude that it's basically another St. Paul's.

Exactly.  If you look at the results of Vaughan in 2006 and 2008 vs. 2011, it swung much harder towards the Tories than most ridings did.  I describe it as essentially a Blue Liberal/Red Tory with a weak hard right base, but also weak progressive base too thus why you can see these strong swings.  In many ways more akin to Winnipeg South or Saint Boniface in Manitoba which see similar swings although very different demographics or perhaps even the North Shore of BC is somewhat comparable.

[mileslunn]

One thing I'm wondering: why does "favourable distribution" favour the PCs in Ontario, while it favours Labour in the UK?  Or is it the built-in flaw of Ontario's projection models...

Actually in UK, distribution favours the Tories now.  In the 90s it favoured Labour but that was when you had a lot more strategic voting so in areas where Liberal Democrats were the main opponent, Labour often got in the teens or single digits, whereas now they pretty much get over 25% in just about every constituency.  Also in the 90s, Scotland was largely Labour unlike now.  In addition, Tony Blair never ran up the margins in urban areas the way Corbyn did.  In 2005 there were very few constituencies Labour got over 60% whereas in 2017, there were several and some they even got over 80%.

As for Ontario, NDP tends to run up the margins in their strongholds.  In the 905 belt and other suburbs, they will get a lot of votes, but they need to rise higher before they start flipping those seats.  In rural Ontario, Liberals have more or less imploded so NDP probably over 1/3 in most rural ridings and even over 40% in many whereas PCs are probably still in the 45-50% range in most rural ridings.  That being said if NDP pulls into a 4-5 point lead, they will win so won't matter.

[mileslunn]

Agreed the NDP will probably gain more in areas they don't hold than do, but that is sort of the problem with simulators when predicting outcomes.  They are good with normal shifts but not massive ones.  Otherwise those showing NDP winning popular vote but losing seatwise is using a uniform swing which rarely occur at least in Canada.