Will Boris Johnson last to 2024?

[mileslunn]

Depends on poll numbers.  Right now taking a hit over Christmas party last year at Downing Street, but if Tories recover, he will stay on.  If Labour continues to lead by decent margins through the whole year, then he is gone.  Despite bad Tory #'s right now, most who defected from the Tories have gone to undecided column, not Labour so its not impossible as time passes they return to Tories.  Boris' bigger danger is dissatisfied Tories stay home and not vote at all vs. them going over to Labour.  That was a big reason Tony Blair won big in 2001 is a lot of Tories just stayed home. 

For Labour, poll #'s may look good now, but its far from certain or even perhaps likely they won.  Obviously pushing Green #'s down would help and if smart they should even run paper thin candidates in constituencies where Liberal Democrats have a chance but they don't.  On other hand, Labour still relies heavily on younger voters and not sure Starmer is type who will excite them.  You need someone with a lot of charisma like Trudeau, Ardern, or Obama to bring young people out in big numbers and Starmer lacks this.  At same time he is more moderate than Corbyn so probably doesn't lose the over 50 vote as badly as Corbyn did. 

[mileslunn]

I think the main question is whether Johnson resigns before or after the Tories get annihilated in local elections in May

Polls already tightening although Labour still about 5-7 points ahead.  One problem with local elections is turnout tends to be terrible which is good for Tories.  Amongst older voters, Tories still have big lead while as usual Labour massive amongst millennials.  Real change since 2019 is Gen Xers who Tories won by over 10 points, but are now trailing amongst.  But I suspect if Johnson cannot regain lead by summer at latest party dumps him.  Most don't expect him to win as big as 2019 as Keir Starmer far harder to scare people as opposed to Corbyn and Brexit is done so many in North & Midlands who voted Tory just to get Brexit done but don't support them on other issues are probably gone. 

But thanks to age demographics and also Tory vote more efficient, many still believe they can come back with him, but if polls don't improve they will dump him as winning is what matters most.