Australian Federal Polls

[DL]

In several elections in the past two years such as the UK in 2010 and Sarkozy recently we have seen that anytime polls show incumbents set to be totally crushed - they almost always end up losing by a much less crushing margin than the polls suggest. I think that in the end a certain number of people always "come home" to their natural political home and so elections almost always end up being closer than expected.