Ontario 2018 election

[DL]

Question for everyone. IF the province wide popular vote is tied between the PCs And NDP (or at least very close) and IF the PCs are winning their traditional rural seats by huge margins and IF the PCs are also winning almost every seat in 905 by double digit margins and sometime high double digit margins....where is the NDP piling up so many votes to make the province wide popular vote so close? I know the ndp is strong in some urban seats but they don’t seem to be winning those seats by the huge margins the PCs are winning by in their strongholds

[DL]

Final Abacus poll is out and shows no change at all from last week

NDP 37%
PCs 33%
OLP 23%

But they also find that when given a binary choice 60% prefer a Horwath NDP government vs 40% who prefer a Ford PC government and among Liberal voters that ratio rises to 80/20

Draw your own conclusions about how Wynne’s concession affects things

[DL]

Are people more likely to refrain from telling pollsters their true intention if they are backing Doug Ford? I think so and I suspect PCs will do fine.

That’s an old theory . Nowadays rightwingers are very aggressively proud to support pigs like Ford

[DL]

In Northern Ontario a lot of people only vote Liberal because they think that if they elect an opposition MPP their roads wont get paved. Now that Wynne has conceded that would end all of that Liberal patronage driven voting

[DL]

And let’s keep in mind that on Saturday a lot of voters not have even been aware of Wynne’s concession as it happened around 11am and not everyone is glued to the. Eww all day. I think the full impact of her surrender would take at least another day or two to sink in

[DL]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

[DL]

There are no Liberal voters considering voting for Ford. That species does not exist

I see you are not associated with the Well-to-do Toronto 905 areas, where the business Liberals see the PC's as the latter of two evils.

Those people all deserted the Liberal Party a long time ago especially after years of Wynne remaking the OLP into a corrupt fiscally irresponsible version of the NDP. Every poll asks what’s left of Liberal voters who their second choice is and invariably they have NDP as their second choice over the PCs by a 5 to 1 margin

[DL]

I would add that the former ED of LeadNow is running as an NDP candidate against Kathleen Wynne in her own Don Valley West seat

[DL]

Because she is trying to "save the furniture".  And the "logical" path is to target her former strongholds (most of which are NDP targets).

Actually if you look at the tiny number of seats where the Liberals still have a chance, they are mostly OLP/PC contests. These would include Wynne's own Don Valley West seat, Eglinton Lawrence and possibly Don Valley East or North. If you believe the riding polls by Mainstreet the Liberals are locked in a dead heat with the NDP in St. Paul's (not sure i believe it) and are only a few points behind the NDP in University-Rosedale (I expect the NDP to win that one pretty easily)

[DL]

Latest Pollara tracking poll (June 1-4):

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-fords-advance-edge/

PC 39% (+2%)
NDP 37% (nc)
Lib 17% (-3%)

Ugly for the NDP and positively frightening for the Liberals.

Even more interesting is the fact that: "...Perhaps the most striking feature in today’s report is that among the 18.8 per cent of respondents who say they have already voted, 43 per cent voted PC, compared to 36 per cent for the NDP and 15 per cent for the Liberals...."

If the NDP needs any more wakeup calls that they have to cooperate with the Liberals to get a shot at government, after this, they are clinically brain dead!

What exactly do you mean by "cooperate" If those numbers are correct there wont be any Liberals in the Ontario legislature for anyone to cooperate with!

[DL]

A boost for Mike Colle in Eglinton-Lawrence?  His last NDP opponent has just endorsed him as a fighter for the community and the only way to stop Ford in that riding:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BjqHgUSnN12/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=1u35uuupnicun

That guys is a bit of a loose canon. He wanted toi run in Eglinton-Lawrence for the NDP this time and the party barred him from running.

[DL]

For the record, our numbers this morning showed the NDP+1, and this afternoon showed the PCs+1, but that might be because of calling old people at home or something.

Really though, the last 2 weeks of the campaign have shown fairly consistent numbers across the board. Should give me lots of data to make some predictions

The last EKOS poll gave the PCs a 4 point lead so even having it dead even represents somewhat of a shift

[DL]

I'm seeing a pattern with these Ottawa and uptown TO "John Tory Liberal" seats.  Some sort of coherent OLP base.

Do you think will see any significant amount of Harper11/Wynne18 vorters in Toronto?

Nah, the Liberals are so ridiculously unpopular that I could more easily see there being some Harper11/Horwath18 voters!

[DL]

Ford tends to be a major turn off in the Jewish community. The fact that he looks like he's from central casting as a sadistic concentration camp guard doesn't help!

[DL]

EPP, using their "gut feeling" methodology has called all but two seats: Sault Ste Marie and Ottawa South. 

Here's their Liberal holds (9 seats):

Ottawa-Vanier
Ottawa Centre
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Scarborough-Guildwood
St. Paul's
Toronto Centre
Vaughan-Woodbridge

The guy who runs EPP is a longtime Liberal hack. He invariably engages in some wishful thinking and puts his finger on the scale for the Liberals in his "predictions". I would say that Ottawa Centre and Toronto Centre are both very very likely to go NDP and that Vaughan-Woodbridge and Don Valley East are almost certain to go PC. The Liberals have a fighting chance in the other five but to get even 5 seats they'd have to run the tables...

[DL]

Final poll by Pollara June 3-5

PCs - 38% (down 1 from yesterday)
NDP - 38% (up 1 from yesterday)
OLP - 17% (flat)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-macleans-pollara-ontario-election-poll-photo-finish/

[DL]

Well, Mainstreet is avoiding the herding. They now have the PCs up by 6. lol...

It will be interesting to see what Forum comes up with in their inevitable final poll. Normally I'd expect the IVR polls (EKOS, Forum and Mainstreet) to be very similar...but maybe not. One thing I have heard from some pollsters who now prefer online panels is that the people who respond to IVR polls (which btw have very very low response rates) tend to older, whiter and angrier and more opinionated than the overall population, but who knows

[DL]

Reminder of how badly off the Mainstreet polls were in BC 2017:

Saanich North
BC Liberals 40% (they got 27%)
NDP           25% (they got 30%)
Green        35% (they got 42%)

Fraser Nicola
BC Liberals 54% (they got 42%)
NDP           26% (they got 38%)
Green        20% (they got 16%)

Delta North
BC Liberals 41% (they got 40%)
NDP           39% (they got 48%)
Green        20% (they got 11%)

Surrey-Fleetwood
BC Liberals 48% (they got 36%)
NDP           39% (they got 53%)
Green        13% (they got 11%)

These 4 Mainstreet riding polls overestimated the Liberals by 9.5%, underestimated the NDP by 10%, and overestimated the Greens by 2%.

Hey i was the one who dug up those stats...give credit where credit is due! :-)

[DL]

Don't know but I've spoken to people with Green signs in the Harbord Village area of University-Rosedale who are actually voting NDP and just personally really like (as do I) the Green candidate, Tim Grant who is the former president of the residents association.

The story I heard was that Tim Grant the Green candidate sits on the Committee of Adjustment at city hall so a lot of homeowners are paranoid that if they don’t put a Green sign on their front lawn they won’t  get their next building permit approved. Every election I see tons of Green signs in the ‘hood and then when the votes are counted they get the same 5% they always get