Ontario 2018 election

[adma]

Also re "historical perspective": both HLA and HKLB went NDP in 1990, and both have (in redistribution) 20%+ 2014 figures.  So while there may not be much of an *elected* history, there's a history of relatively decent (under the circumstances) results--the sort that can be the  base of a wave...

[adma]

Let's look at the 1990 map, shall we?

In the north, you can see that individual candidates mattered a lot in terms of riding the NDP didn't win and this time the same will be true with Fidelli in Nipissing and Gravelle and Mauro in Thunder Bay.

It wasn't just "individual candidacy" in Kenora: an independent candidate took most of the reserve polls that might otherwise have gone NDP.

"Individual candidates" also made a difference in seats the NDP *did* win; case in point being Victoria-Haliburton (HKLB's predecessor), an open seat (formerly John Eakins' Liberal stronghold, a rarity in Eastern Ontario--though pre-Eakins, it was home base for onetime Tory premier Leslie Frost) where Dennis Drainville's outside-populist appeal won the day.

And sometimes, party affiliation helped--as seats with incumbent Tories (and rare survivors of the 1987 rout), Burlington, Markham, and Mississauga South went landslide for the status quo in a way they might not have had the incumbents been Liberal.  Ditto with the byelected London North.

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Though not necessarily the same ridings.  For one, I can see Monte McNaughton benefiting from individual-candidatedom in LKM,  with an added boost from the lack of large urban centres (though Wallaceburg's long been a powerful NDP node, and there are several reserves for good measure).

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Mike Farnan in Cambridge was kind of like the Taras Natyshak of 1990: parlayed a "surprise" 1987 victory into a 60%+ landslide.  As for the present, both Cambridge's Liberal incumbency and PC history are shallower than it looks--indeed, the surprise-2014-pickup of the former explains the shallowness of the latter; basically, it stayed Tory for so long *precisely* because the pre-2014 Liberals were so traditionally weak and the NDP traditionally strong (but not strong enough to win in the post-Rae fallow years).

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What helped in Muskoka-GB is that the incumbent was Liberal (an open-seat 1987 pickup), giving more incentive for a "throw the bums out" NDP vote. (Also helped that the seat included Midland.)  By comparison, Simcoe's two incumbent Tory seats stayed within the fold.

As for Barrie: remember that Simcoe Centre (another 1987 Lib pickup) was also "rurban"--in fact, the Lake Simcoe white-trash exurbia of Innisfil proved stronger for the NDP than Barrie proper.

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Halton North had the lowest winning share of all in 1990 (30.9%).  But today, it's effectively split among two ridings; and the "stronger" NDP part is now in Tory stronghold Wellington-Halton Hills  (if *that* goes NDP, we're really talking about an electoral earthquake)

As for Brampton in 1990: had the ridings been drawn differently (i.e. split east-west rather than north-south), a hypothetical "Brampton East" *would* have gone NDP; and that's because of pre-ethnoburban Bramalea serving as a "new town Labour" sort of node.

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Like Innisfil, it was white-trash exurban Lake Simcoe populism in Georgina that ruled the day in York-Durham.

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There was a third PC seat in 1990, and another case of individual candidacy mattering: populist Tory Chris Stockwell in Etobicoke West.

Individual candidacy (Alvin Curling) also explains the 1990 version of Scarborough North staying Liberal; and that was also pre- the Tamil boom and the development of neighbourhoods like Morningside Heights--in fact, those areas which tend to be NDP bastions now (Malvern et al) were also strongest for the NDP in 1990.  And the strongest 1990 Liberal base (the west-of-Markham-Rd Chinese) is now the strongest *Tory* base.

And re St. Paul's: provincially, no such riding existed in 1990.  You must be thinking of longtime Grossman PC bastion St. Andrew-St. Patrick, which was really more like the present University-Rosedale set perpendicularly so that it was Forest Hill, not Rosedale, counterbalancing the Annex.

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It must be internal polling explaining the non-competitiveness in N-PS--the NDP hasn't done *that* much worse here in recent elections than in surrounding ridings.

Worth considering that the NDP was actually stronger in much of Eastern Ontario c1980 than 1990--holding Cornwall and Carleton East as well as Ottawa Centre.  (Much like in 2011 federally, the Liberal brand was more resilient in the Ottawa zone than elsewhere in 1990.)

[adma]

Instinctually, I would give the PCs an advantage given that any residual strength Jim Bradley maintains hurts the NDP more.  Though I guess one could counter that with "populism...orange wave...Andrea is the agent of change."

Though it's hard to say, given how a lot of the traditionally strongest Jim Bradley Liberal zones have also been the strongest Tory zones--the two "non-socialist" parties can have a pattern of tag-teaming one another.  (That's especially the case in a seat like London North Centre, where the NDP can win almost as many polls as the Tories even at half the Tory vote, largely because they're "on their own" in their SE riding strongholds.)

[adma]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

[adma]

Thanks for this. Clearly you've had a chance to see some poll by poll data from the 1990 election. I think such a thing exists at the library, but not sure if they'd have corresponding maps.

A lot of the mapping info can be "deduced" from polling station location and the like (luckily, Elections Ontario has always disclosed polling station info in its official returns, unlike Elections Canada).

With its crazyquilt horizon-opening results and 3-ways and high "other" tallies and the simple hitherto-unlikelihood of the NDP taking power in Ontario, I've long referred to the 1990 election as the Sgt Pepper of psephology.

[adma]

Game changer!

https://twitter.com/OntarioPCParty/status/1000439982430085121

But why

Because otherwise, their campaign's croaking ;-)

[adma]

Also, I fully expect that one of the two Liberal MPPs in Thunder Bay (Mauro or Gravelle) gets re-elected. It would strengthen TB's position in any minority government situation, and leave them as viable future Liberal leaders.

After the disastrous 1990 election, the Liberals picked a leader from Thunder Bay.  How did that turn out?

And when it comes to the will for "fresh blood", the present office-holders are 62 and 69--just saying...

[adma]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

PCs down 2,Libs down 1.  How is that "stable" vs "crumbling"?

To me, it looks more like "crumbling" (relative to the NDP, at least) vs "stagnant".

[adma]

Abacus has NDP up 4

http://onpulse.ca/blog/ndp-leads-by-4-as-final-debate-looms

Good news for NDP but the fundamentals have not changed - strengthening NDP-stable PC-crumbling Liberals-voter intention firmer for PCs.

PCs down 2,Libs down 1.  How is that "stable" vs "crumbling"?

To me, it looks more like "crumbling" (relative to the NDP, at least) vs "stagnant".

Well, read David Coletto's conclusions:

"PC support has declined somewhat (thanks to more to undecideds moving to the NDP than a loss of its own support) but its support remains solid and concentrated among voters more likely to vote."

You're reading "conclusions"; I'm reading *numbers*.  And a so-called solid core means nothing when the soft/undecideds aren't falling your way.

Indeed, the "NDP and PC Party competitive" headline and "but all change statistically insignificant" disclaimer looks to me like cautious pussyfooting around the fact that with the rogue exception of Forum, this is the first poll to show a better-than-single-point lead for the NDP, i.e. the momentum's crossed a palpable threshold.  And yes, I know, we shouldn't take things at face value, Hillary '16 and all; but, still...

(And again: the Libs look to be more stagnant than crumbling--in fact, 23% looks *high* for them lately.)

[adma]

On the pre-election discussion on CBC tonight, Brad Lavigne stated that Andrea Horwath is not only taking votes from Liberals but "traditional Tories."  Rosie Barton asked Eric Grenier whether he thought this was true.  He said he thinks that she's pulling from the parked PC/anti-Liberal vote but it wasn't clear that she was actually poaching away from reliably Conservative voters.

A bit of a weasel question, but how many of those who voted Conservative in incumbent/competitive seats even in 2014 were actually "reliable", as opposed to just "backing a winner" or something?  Might explain rumours of seats like Elgin-Middlesex-London being in play.

Of course, there's also the matter of K-W's Witmer-to-Fife switch; but Witmer was barely "Conservative" in that sense...

[adma]

Wouldn't Bob Rae have basically run a "sorry not sorry" campaign in 1995?  By extension, I suppose Doug Ford pratfalled away a commanding lead a la Lyn McLeod, and Horwath is the commanding new Mike Harris...

[adma]

But compared to say BC, yeah, the number of NDP dead zones is bigger in Ontario.  Van's suburbs have traditionally been more favorable - it doesn't really have the equivalent of York Region.  Van suburbs for the most part are more like Peel/Durham.

What about Richmond?  Or perhaps everything hugging the US border all the way to Abbotsford (a Barrie/Simcoe equivalent?)

[adma]

OK what isn't happening (unless things change dramatically) is the Rae '90 SW Ontario near-sweep.  The NDP is driving the Liberals out of the cities but will have a much harder time defeating PC MPPs.

Though it's worth noting that they had a hard time defeating PC MPPs in 1990 as well--only one was defeated (but IIRC 3 open seats were picked up, and 3 held).  Then again, after the Grossman disaster there were so few of them, anyway...

[adma]

The NDP is not winning with that anti-poppy candidate.

In case of a wave, they actually could--much as Vegas Ruth Ellen did federally in 2011 (yeah, I know she overcame her punchline status with colours; but, still).

Now, if the wave approached Forum rogue-poll levels, who knows whether Mississauga-Lakeshore might be a Pierrefonds-Dollard-style Dipper pickup...

[adma]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

2. Etobicoke ridings - this is a total mess - it's showing Ford losing North, Liberals winning Centre with a 9% margin, and PC winning Lakeshore.  They got everything wrong.  Ford WILL win easily in Etobicoke North, and anyone who doubts that should spend some time there.  Etobicoke Centre is TCTC right now and PC has the weakest Etobicoke candidate in Lakeshore, with a popular Liberal MPP.

Presumably, the Etobicoke projection didn't take into account that Etobicoke-Lakeshore's 2014 PC count was skewed upward by its being a byelected "incumbent" seat through Doug Holyday.

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The Liberal MPP's not running again.  (But I agree that Liberal-in-third seems "off".)

[adma]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

Having lived in Saudi, the two are interchangeable, especially in summer around Dhahran .

As for Whitby, the NDP can target and hope, but then there is reality.  This is from the 2016 Whitby byelection:

Tory candidate Lorne Coe crushed Liberal Elizabeth Roy, 53 per cent to 28 per cent with nearly all polls reporting late Thursday evening. NDP candidate Niki Lundquist trailed with 16 per cent.

The candidates this time around, are - yes you guessed it - for the PC that same Coe and for the NDP that same Lundquist!  You make the conclusions.

Actually, Lundquist *overachieved* relative to pre-byelection polls that saw her flirting with single digits--OTOH her best parts (the Oshawa polls) are gone from the riding.  But still; within the "auto-orbit" of Oshawa, I can see why the NDP might genuinely think of themselves in the running here.

As for Coe--don't think that a "byelection bump" didn't pertain here, yes, even here, and back when the party still seemed "normal" under Patrick Brown.  And *if* we're looking at an overall NDP advantage of 5-10 points and the PCs reduced to Hudak-like numbers or worse (*maybe*)--don't rule out Whitby...

[adma]

Two points:

1. Northern seats like Kenora have very very large First nation populations often living on reserves and they tend to be very difficult to capture in polls - especially IVR polls

Most of the reserves in that riding are now in Kiiwetinoong.

Though there's a fair number of reserves remaining; and depending on turnout, they *could* mean a lot in a tight race.  (IOW a 214-to-5 NDP advantage in a single reserve poll can cancel out a 800-to-1000 PC advantage in a cluster of non-reserve polls.)

[adma]

Is Fedeli behind in that poll?

No, but he only has a modest single digit lead over the NDP in a seat that he won by a big margin in 2014

Though it was a neatly-split-opposition kind of "big margin"--he only got 41.81%.  (Yeah, yeah, blame Hudak)

[adma]

Yet this aggregator http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ Has Brampton Centre for the NDP at 51%, but Brampton North PC 39/33 over the NDP.

Keep in mind that it's the awkwardness of projecting from past results--Brampton Centre's 2014 figure is high only because it was largely represented by Jagmeet Singh; but those were also Jagmeet Singh's weakest parts.  Take his incumbency away, and a deflation of NDP numbers relative to aggregator predictions is kind of inevitable...

[adma]

Quito Maggi predicts a Doug majority.

He seems awfully editorial-ish, particularly in his portrayal of the ONDP as heavy-duty SJW.  (As if such candidates *haven't* been in the running in the past, even in breakthrough elections like Layton '11 or Notley '15.)

Methinks he would've predicted a contrary-to-polls stomping Theresa May majority in Britain last year.

[adma]

Wynne would probably be NDP. Probably.

She'd definitely be more Vision Vancouver than NPA.

[adma]

Was the Mike Harris of 1990 basically the same Harris of 1995?  Or did he recast himself from a more "mainstream" PC to the Common Sense Revolutionary he became known for?

It was a sort of stripped-down, bare-bones preview of the CSR, hinging upon Harris being the "Taxfighter".  And it did achieve limited success--limited mainly by the lack of money in the Tory election coffers and the spillover federal Mulroney stink; but it did establish a distinct "profile" for the party, distinct both from the Feds and from the hollow shell the party had been after the 1987 Grossman disaster...

[adma]

I have a hypothesis that the geography of PC support will be less "Ford Nation" and more the PCs doing well where they traditionally do well when they get strong support across the province. I think Ford has been a disappointment during the campaign and the coalition of low income multiethnic people who supported his brother en masse are starting to realize that Doug is not Rob and that in fact he is very much a traditional Tory

As I've been saying: Andrea's been in many ways better at being Rob-like than Doug is.

[adma]

Leaving aside Etobicoke North where Doug is actually on the ballot, I think of Scarborough-Agincourt as the "first to fall" among seats in Toronto to the PCs, as it is both "Ford Nation" enough and Conservative enough (and the NDP has no chance).

York Centre as well, falls into the both Ford Nation and Conservative enough.

And interestingly, either seat would *not* have been deemed "Conservative enough" a generation ago--both evaded the Common Sense Revolution.  (What happened is that the Jewish and then the Chinese electorates swung dramatically right.)

Also, York Centre is only half "Ford Nation enough" (i.e. going for Doug over John Tory for the mayoralty), while Scarborough-Agincourt was totally Ford.

[adma]

If the PCs won 110 seats, Parkdale-High Park wouldn't be one of them.

But going by signage, I agree with the once-implausible hypothesis that they could leapfrog the Libs for second...