Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[adma]

I'd say at least partially due to GND.

I presume you're answering AF2020's question.

For the uninitiated: GND means
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gabriel_Nadeau-Dubois

[adma]

I would guess Taschereau, i.e. Downtown Quebec City.

I was going to make that same guess.

[adma]

Politically speaking, Taschereau is to Quebec as Ottawa Centre is to Ottawa.  That might offer a hint.

[adma]

Never mind CAQ; only 3 pts separating PQ from QS (who've doubled their 2014 share already)

[adma]

I only trust Leger for provincial polls, but Mainstreet's current numbers are actually an improvement for CAQ over their previous one. Minor parties will be much smaller. QS can only win island seats. Seat-wise, that would be the worst Grit result since '76.

I think a better bet would be for the worst PQ seat total since (or even including?!?) '73.  I also wouldn't rule out an island-seat-stigma-breaking QS redoubt in Taschereau, and who knows where else...

[adma]

Agreed on the PQ, though probably need closer to 15% than 20% for that.

16.5% is closer to 15% than 20%.  Just saying.

[adma]

The Roberval figures don't add up to 100%.  Is there something missing?

[adma]

Lisee's "I know that math is difficult" moment?  (cf Jim Prentice)

[adma]

Yes, I'm really not sure what his the goal of all those attacks. He should be going after CAQ's voters, not QS's. Most of the support PQ lost over the past few years went over to the CAQ, not QS. And I'm really not sure how comparing QS to Soviet Russia is supposed to make those now CAQ-supporting voters go back to PQ.

Maybe it's his own seat he's worried about.

[adma]

Solitaire has won their first non-Montreal seat, in Taschereau

Haha this is a great autocorrect.

Hey; I warned you about Taschereau. ;-)

Maybe not in Quebec City, but I'm wondering whether a motivational factor (however token) behind the QS victories in Sherbrooke and Rouyn et al was their being represented by the NPD federally.

Oh, and Ungava wins the Sask-Humboldt '04/Inverness Skye & Lochaber '92 award for being won with barely a quarter of the vote...