Australian by-elections, 2018 (user search)
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Poll
Question: Wagga Wagga state by-election
#1
Seb McDonagh
 
#2
Julia Ham
 
#3
Joe McGirr
 
#4
Ray Goodlass
 
#5
Tom Arentz
 
#6
Paul Funnell
 
#7
Dan Hayes
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 4

Author Topic: Australian by-elections, 2018  (Read 12721 times)
adma
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Posts: 2,782
« on: September 16, 2018, 05:18:50 PM »

These old patterns explain a lot of voting behaviour..:until they don’t. It wasn’t that long ago that the Republicans were the party of the rich and the Democrats were the party of the white working class. In 1976 Marin County votes for Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter. Last year it went to Clinton over Trump by something like an 85% to 15% margin. In the UK never mind Kensington, Labour also won seats like Battersea which are full of rich young professionals who are very Remain. I might add that Corbyn’s own riding of Islaington is a very very high income riding full of professionals and academics who at one time likely would have voted Tory.

It’s probably just a matter of time before this happens in Australia as the Liberals go the way of the GOP and the Tories the UK and Canada and make themselves totally unattractive to anyone with a post secondary education.

'young' 'youg' 'young'. Islington is also far from 'very very high income' 'Very very high income' areas in London voted tory.

Yeah, the most "very very high income" inner ridings of Chelsea & Fulham and Cities of London & Westminster remain Tory--though they swung Labour by 10 and 9 points respectively (and the latter became a marginal in the process)

It's probably in part a cultural thing re the *kinds* of ultra-high income (i.e. Rosedale vs the Annex in terms of Toronto); but also that even after the Liberals' recent provincial decimation, Toronto has an inherently far stronger "middle option", while the UK and Australia are more authentically binary.  That is, regardless of leadership, the UK Tories and Australia Liberals still operate as free-enterprise-coalition default parties--maybe it would have been different in Britain if Cleggmania turned out like Macronmania; but such was not to be.

The better Canadian comparison would be Vancouver-Langara and Vancouver-Quilchena, within the more authentically binary provincial realm of British Columbia.
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adma
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,782
« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2018, 12:42:10 AM »

Also, the NDP won St. Paul's with less share than Labour earned in their 2017 Cities of London & Westminster loss.  And University-Rosedale is not comparable because of the Annex et al tail wagging the Rosedale dog.


If Wentworth fell, it'd be in the event of a centrist force a la the Canadian Liberals taking command.  Or in the unlikelihood of a Green surge at the expense of Labor...
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adma
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,782
« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2018, 08:29:11 PM »

Wentworth is probably falling at the by-election. Just to the Independent Kerryn Phelps. Not to Labor and most certainly not to the Greens.

It almost seems to me that wherever it's viable, Independents are the closest Australian equivalent to a hypothetical "Canadian Liberal" force.  (Aside from South Australia's Centre Alliance, which is a bit too "radical middle" as opposed to "establishment middle".)
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