Assuming Trump's approval rating bumps up to around 40%....
Democrat: 349
Trump: 189
The toss-ups here will be Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
I just do not envision any scenario at this time where Trump can win Michigan again. Pennsylvania is probably gone for him too. I can see him winning Wisconsin again, but I can also see him losing it just as easily.
Texas could be close, depending on the Democratic nominee. Demographics there are trending blue. But I don't think 2020 will be the year for it to flip, though it quite possibly could, especially if Trump continues to tank. Same with Georgia, except I
do think it's very likely to flip in 2020.
North Carolina and Arizona, I believe, are not going to be good states for the president. NC will be friendlier territory, IMO, but I don't think he's going to be a favorite in either state come 2020.
Florida remains a battleground, as always. C'mon, Florida, get your act together.
Now, if Trump's approval hovers at the current 36-ish% or drops to around 30%....
Democrat: 413
Trump: 125
Toss-ups: Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-2, Maine CD-2, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida. It should be noted, even if he were to win every single one of these, he'd still lose the election. In other words, 30-36% approval means he's going to lose; he
cannot win with approval like that.
Should his approval dip below 30%....
Democrat: 437
Trump: 101
Battlegound Alaska, Indiana, South Carolina, Nebraska CD-1, Missouri, Mississippi, and possibly Utah and Kansas.
