Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:
1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida
And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.
I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.
The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.
Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since
at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.
