US House Redistricting: North Carolina

[Miles]

I've heard that the new map might not even go into effect until 2014 because of the lawsuits.

Miller: Yep, he's toast. They cut off his arm to the liberal areas of Greensboro and he's too liberal to win in a 56% McCain district. His best scenario would be running in the new 4th if Price retires.

Shuler: Lets remember that, even last year, he did well in counties outside of Buncombe. He know how to win in conservative counties, but his new counties (Caldwell, Buerke, Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level. I though Shuler would be a good Burr challenger in 2014. I really don't blame him if he takes the UT job though....

McIntyre: Ilario Pantano will put up a tough fight, no question about that. He kinda reminds me of the Italian version of Marco Rubio. McIntyre is going to have to perform better in Pender, Brunswick and even New Hanover to make up for the addition of Onslow and most of Carteret. I'd say the chances of McIntyre surviving are about 70%. My calculations showed that he would have  narrowly won his new district last year.

Kissell: Kissell's formula for winning will be pretty simple: run up his margins in his existing territory and control the bleeding in Rowan, Davidson and Randolph. A state representative, Jerry Dockham's name was floated as a Kissell challenger. If the GOP nominee is Dockham, I'll be pretty happy....
http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?sChamber=H&nUserID=33

[Miles]

The funny things is that - for once - he isn't entirely wrong in questioning assumptions about electoral movement in NC that have become the orthodoxy here.

Job growth has stalled in North Carolina. One wonders why these massive groups of Yankees would be moving there nowadays.

2002 was a different world though.

Thats about the time I moved up to NC!

[Miles]

Shuler: ... his new counties (... Avery, Mitchell) don't even vote Democrat on the statewide level.

Understatement much?

Yep...even looking at a good year like 2008:

-Perdue lost all 4 of them
-Marshall barely carried Burke but lost the other 3
-Dalton lost all 4
-Even Cooper lost 3 of them

[Miles]

Burr's 2010 performance was pretty much the ceiling for what Republicans can get in North Carolina these days.  I looked at the 2008 McCain/Obama numbers and there are a number of districts that McCain barely won.  SD-09, SD-17, and SD-27 come to mind.   

I wouldn't call it the 'ceiling' per se, but yes, he did perform about as well as a generic Republican could in NC.

I'd also add SD-15 and SD-18 to that list.

Here are the Senate numbers: (from DKE)

  Pres                                 Party Line       
#    Obama    McCain    Margin     Dem    GOP    Margin
1      44.8%    54.7%      -9.9%    59.1%    40.0%     19.1%
2      38.9%    60.6%    -21.8%    48.6%    50.6%      -2.0%
3      62.3%    37.5%     24.8%    81.6%    17.9%     63.7%
4      66.1%    33.6%     32.5%    81.9%    17.7%     64.3%
5      62.2%    37.4%     24.8%    75.5%    24.1%     51.4%
6      39.6%    59.9%    -20.3%    49.5%    48.8%       0.8%
7      39.1%    60.5%    -21.4%    50.4%    48.9%       1.4%
8      44.1%    55.4%    -11.3%    54.4%    43.8%     10.6%
9      47.8%    51.6%      -3.8%    54.0%    45.0%      9.0%
10    41.5%    57.9%    -16.4%    54.3%    44.8%       9.6%
11    41.5%    58.1%    -16.6%    53.4%    46.0%       7.4%
12    40.3%    59.3%    -19.0%    55.5%    43.7%     11.8%
13    52.6%    46.9%       5.7%    79.4%    19.4%     60.1%
14    76.2%    23.3%     52.9%    82.5%    17.0%     65.6%
15    49.3%    50.0%      -0.7%    48.3%    51.0%      -2.7%
16    63.5%    35.7%     27.8%    65.7%    33.2%     32.5%
17    48.9%    50.3%      -1.4%    47.6%    51.5%      -3.9%
18    48.0%    51.3%      -3.3%    55.2%    44.0%     11.2%
19    49.9%    49.7%       0.1%    61.3%    37.8%     23.6%
20    75.8%    23.9%     51.9%    83.8%    15.7%     68.1%
21    68.0%    31.7%     36.2%    77.3%    22.0%     55.3%
22    62.4%    37.0%     25.4%    72.2%    27.0%     45.2%
23    66.8%    32.5%     34.2%    73.0%    26.3%     46.7%
24    42.2%    57.1%    -15.0%    50.4%    48.7%       1.7%
25    42.3%    57.1%    -14.8%    57.6%    41.4%     16.1%
26    43.3%    56.0%    -12.7%    48.8%    50.2%      -1.5%
27    45.9%    53.4%      -7.5%    49.3%    49.9%      -0.6%
28    81.9%    17.8%     64.1%    86.7%    12.7%     74.0%
29    33.5%    65.8%    -32.3%    35.4%    63.7%    -28.3%
30    32.6%    66.4%    -33.8%    40.3%    58.2%    -17.9%
31    38.7%    60.7%    -22.0%    41.2%    57.9%    -16.7%
32    69.5%    29.9%     39.6%    77.4%    22.0%     55.5%
33    34.4%    64.8%    -30.4%    39.7%    59.3%    -19.6%
34    37.2%    62.1%    -24.9%    45.2%    53.8%      -8.6%
35    37.1%    62.3%    -25.2%    38.5%    60.8%    -22.3%
36    39.4%    60.0%    -20.5%    44.7%    54.5%      -9.8%
37    66.5%    32.9%     33.6%    68.4%    30.7%     37.7%
38    78.1%    21.5%     56.6%    82.3%    17.2%     65.1%
39    44.5%    55.0%    -10.4%    36.8%    62.5%    -25.7%
40    80.3%    19.3%     61.0%    84.1%    15.4%     68.7%
41    47.0%    52.5%      -5.4%    43.4%    55.9%    -12.5%
42    35.7%    63.5%    -27.8%    40.3%    58.6%    -18.3%
43    37.4%    62.0%    -24.6%    44.2%    53.5%      -9.3%
44    36.6%    62.8%    -26.2%    40.0%    56.7%    -16.6%
45    40.0%    59.0%    -18.9%    45.6%    53.2%      -7.5%
46    39.9%    59.5%    -19.7%    51.9%    46.9%       5.0%
47    38.0%    61.1%    -23.1%    49.1%    49.7%      -0.6%
48    42.0%    57.3%    -15.3%    44.6%    54.3%      -9.8%
49    58.8%    40.5%     18.3%    66.2%    32.8%     33.3%
50    42.0%    57.1%    -15.1%    52.7%    46.3%       6.5%

[Miles]

Thanks.

Good link, BigSkyBob!

From my prima face analysis, the House map looks worse than the Senate map.

[Miles]

Your fair map is interesting.

Ellmers would be drawn in with McIntyre in the red district, though he'd likely run in the purple on. Maybe Kissell would run there instead; putting all of Union county in his current district would really drive up his McCain %.

Overall, looks like 7-5-1.

This was my attempt at 3 VRA seats:

[Miles]

Your fair map is interesting.

Ellmers would be drawn in with McIntyre in the red district, though he'd likely run in the purple on. Maybe Kissell would run there instead; putting all of Union county in his current district would really drive up his McCain %.

Overall, looks like 7-5-1.

Pretty clearly 6-6-1 on the presidential figures, actually, green, purple (though it's a borderline marginal), pink, cyan, grey and cornflower as R districts; Shuler's as a seventh McCain district,  but the most marginal of all 13. The red district is actually quite solidly Democratic; I doubt McIntyre would move.

Still the best scenario for Dems on your fair map would be 8-5. They'd have 5 fairly safe seats (the blue one, 2 in the Triangle, Greensboro/W-S, and Charlotte), Kissell would run in the red district, they'd somehow get McIntyre to run in the purple one and Shuler would hold down the tan district pretty easily.

[Miles]

Here's my shot at a fair/nonpartisan map. Its 7-6 R at the Presidential level, but would probably be 7-5-1 D.

I tried to keep COI together, except for in the Triangle; I drew the Chapel Hill liberals into the blue GOP-leaning district (I've had a grudge against UNC Chapel Hill ever since they turned my application down).



Democrats would have:

Red- (55-44 Obama) [Butterfield, but he'd be vulnerable to a primary challenge]
Pink- (52-47 Obama) [Kissell vs. Ellmers]
Gray (52-47 McCain) [Still safe for McIntyre]
Yellow (64-35 Obama) [Miller, though maybe Price]
Tan- (59-41 Obama) [Open, though Miller could run here and give Price the Yellow district]
Navy- (66-33 Obama) [Watt]
Lime- (53-46 McCain) [Still safe for Shuler]

Republicans would have:

Green- (55-44 McCain) [Jones]
Blue- (52-47 McCain) [Coble, he's a fairly weak incumbent for only an R+6 district though]
Teal- (64-35 McCain) [McHenry, or maybe Coble could run here, making the primary bloody]
Cyan- (59-40 McCain) [Myrick]
Orange- (62-37 McCain) [Foxx woudl actually live in her own district!]

The Purple district would an open swing district. It went 51-48 Obama but votes 51-49 for Republicans on the state level.

[Miles]

What's the likelihood that the Justice Department will approve these maps?  Also, when is the congressional redistricting map coming out? 

The Congressional map is pretty old news...they went for 10-3.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/gis/randr07/District_Plans/PlanPage_DB_2011.asp?Plan=Rucho-Lewis_Congress_1&Body=Congress

[Miles]

HOW DARE THEY PUT ME IN JONES' DISTRICT!!!!!!!!!!

He's the only Republican in the NC delegation I like.

I'm ok with Coble too, but the others are nuts.

You're lucky. I'm still stuck with Myrick...

[Miles]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

Myrick is rabidly anti-Islam. She also broke her term limits pledge.

I think Coble is pretty genuine and I think he means well. I like that he took the No Pension Pledge. 

[Miles]

I'd rather have Myrick. She has never struck me as being that bad. What don't you like about her? I don't see how I am really lucky unless you think Myrick is worse then Ellmers.

I thought Coble had some connections with extremist groups. Though that may be because someone used to complain about him a lot in discussions with me.

Jones isn't horrible, but I don't want to be represented by him though.

Myrick is rabidly anti-Islam. She also broke her term limits pledge.

I think Coble is pretty genuine and I think he means well. I like that he took the No Pension Pledge. 

Also, a business friend of my dad's, Harry Taylor, was the 2008 Democratic nominee in NC-09. We were pretty involved with his campaign. Ever since then, I've had a certain animosity towards Myrick.

This video of Harry Taylor got a good amount of media attention; he rails against Bush...right in front of Bush!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdFQX1NIxJY

[Miles]

Looks like the state GOP will be altering its congressional redistricting map in response to apparently very real concerns that it will not pass Justice Department muster.

At this point, I'm tempted to say that any changes to this map couldn't be worse than the original plan for Democrats.

Even if they fix the 1st, the still have the 12th to worry about.

I'm sick of Rucho using that balloon analogy.

[Miles]

NC has a decent amount of moderate white democrats and these 55% McCain districts do leave openings for types like shuler and mcintyre against a far right R

True. They did a fairly good job of screwing Shuler though. I could see NC-06, NC-13, NC-02 and NC-03 trend our way by the end of the decade.

Lets see what ol' Rucho comes up with to address the NC-01 issues though...

[Miles]

I suspect NC Republicans would have a bit of an aversion to touch-point for obvious reasons.

Good point.

Then again, they always were against the snake.

They hated the snake so much that they made another one!

[Miles]

The 4th uses touch-point.

[Miles]

I was in Kay Hagan's office today discussing the plan.

Her aides think that Shuler could very well hold on, Kissell and McIntyre are pretty much up the creek and that McHenry could also have a rough time, as he took in more of Asheville.

One of her advisers told me that McHenry (ideologically) tends to skew leftward of current district. I thought that was interesting...

[Miles]

New map out.

Minor pro-Shuler changes.

http://www.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2011/07/21/9888766/congress_2A.PDF

McHenry probably refused to take a sub-57% McCain district.

[Miles]

An exercise in pointlessness, but I did this for fun.

Assumptions:
- the VRA doesn't exist
- Dems control the process

This map would result in a pretty solid 9-4 Democratic delegation.



NC-01- Blue  55.7/43.6 Obama (D+3)
Butterfield doesn't live here; even if he ran here, he could have serious primary problems.

NC-02- Green 52.5/46.8 Obama (R+1)
All in all, moves about 1.5 points to the left, enough for Etheridge to have won in 2010. Butterfield lives here, but I doubt he runs here.

NC-03- Orange 57.2/42.0 McCain (R+11)
Gets more Democratic, but Jones has nothing to worry about.

NC-04- Red 54.5/44.5 Obama (D+1.5)
I'm guessing Miller and Price would switch districts. Miller now lives in the 4th and Price is in the 6th. Still , they'll both be fine; Miller shouldn't lose here. This will definitely trend Democrat over the years. I'm proud that I only cut Wake county 2 ways.

NC-05- Yellow 56.9/42.3 Obama (D+4)
The 5th is now based in the Piedmont Triad. Miller could run here as well, but he has more of a base in Wake County. Regardless of who runs, its Likely D.

NC-06- Crimson 57.9/41.0 McCain (R+12)
A Republican vote sink. Coble now lives in the 5th, but he'd be ok here. I put Chapel Hill here to piss off the UNC liberals.

NC-07- Gray 52.4/46.7 McCain (R+6)
Almost identical, both geographically and ideologically, to the current 7th. Democratic at the state level. Safe for McIntyre.

NC-08- Violet 55.1/44.1 Obama (D+2)
Even more Democratic than the current 8th. Kissell will be in great shape.

NC-09- Pink 59.9/39.2 McCain (R+14)
Very safe for Myrick and no risk of flipping down the line. McHenry also lives here.

NC-10- Light Blue 63.0/35.6 McCain (R+17)
The most GOP district. Probable primary between McHenry and Foxx.

NC-11- Lime 51.9/46.7 McCain (R+6)
Shuler is guaranteed another 5 terms.

NC-12 Navy 56.8/42.4 Obama (D+4)
'Had to unpack the snake to give Democratic precincts to other districts. Watt has some appeal  to whites so he'd probably win a primary, even in a 30% black district.

NC-13- Tan 61.3/37.9 Obama (D+8)
The most Democratic district. Price or Miller will be very safe.

[Miles]

As an NC Democrat, I'd probably vote for Miller over Price in a primary. I think most Democrats in the 4th would agree with me. I mean the new 13th isn't completely unwinnable, but I can see it trending towards the Democrats and being competitive a few cycles down the road.


For what its worth (not much), here's the Democrat's Congressional map:



NC-01: 61.8/37.6 Obama
NC-02: 51.7/47.5 McCain
NC-03: 61.6/37.6 McCain
NC-04: 65.1/33.9 Obama
NC-05: 60.8/37.9 McCain
NC-06: 62.0/36.9 McCain
NC-07: 51.1/48.1 McCain
NC-08: 49.7/49.6 McCain
NC-09: 55.6/43.6 McCain
NC-10: 61.4/37.6 McCain
NC-11: 52.7/45.9 McCain
NC-12: 70.5/28.8 Obama
NC-13: 61.6/37.6 Obama

If the Dems controlled the process, I doubt they'd actually shore up Ellmers and weaken Kissell like they did here.

[Miles]

I agree. The new map is worse. Miller would still be too liberal to win the new 13th and McIntyre and Kissell were really screwed.

I think Shuler could still actually hold on though, at least that's what most of Kay Hagan's advisers seem to think.

Accordingly, McHenry could be vulnerable in a Democratic wave year; a Democratic challenger could now use Asheville as a base.

I do think that in challenging the original map, Butterfield had the best interests of the delegation at heart. I didn't think we could have done worse than the original, either. Looks like I was wrong....

[Miles]

I can still see McIntyre and Shuler winning on that map. Their districts would only be a few points more Republican.

Giving Asheville to Foxx would weaken Shuler.

Its amazing that with Kissell's district, making only a few slight tweaks turns it into a GOP-leaning seat. You basically just cut of his Charlotte arm, added the rest of Union and then some of Rowan; his district went from 52% Obama to 56% McCain.

[Miles]

Also, another observation, Myrick's district looks just like the one she had in the '90s. Minus Lincoln county and the northern tip of Mecklenburg, its basically the same district.

[Miles]

I was thinking...would it be a good idea for Kissell to carpetbag up to the new 2nd?
The 2nd is now McCain +12 as opposed to the new 8th which is McCain +16. Ellmers is also a fairly weak incumbent.
Some of the old 8th ended up inthe new 2nd; Kissell would still have a base in parts of Fayettville and most of Hoke county.

[Miles]

Here's the old 8th compared to the new 2nd. The purple is what they have in common.

Kissell's Fayetteville hand was divided between the new 2nd and 4th. Other than that, he'd pretty much just have Hoke County.