North Carolina 2012 Congressional Races

[Miles]

NC 7 definitely looks like a hold for the D's.  The R's will probably have a decent night but they won't get that seat.  When an internal poll released by a candidate has that said candidate down, then you know you are in trouble.

Thanks for mentioning that. I just found the poll you were referring to.

Public Opinion Strategies had Ilario Pantano up 7 in September of 2010 and McIntyre ended up winning by 8.

I agree with you in that I'd rank CD7 as a Lean Democratic hold, and this polling seems to confirm that. Romney is also leading by 17 in that sample, so McIntyre is still receiving a strong amount of crossover support.

[Miles]

The R's are guaranteed to take CD13 and they should also take CD11, but I can see CD11 being closer than some would think.

I'd really like to see some polling from the 8th. Kissell was up 10 a few months ago, but there have been some developments in the race since then.

[Miles]

This is map is  from 2008, but I think it has some relevance this year:



Even though 2008 was a great Democratic year and Rouzer was running in an open seat, he barely won his State Senate district. He got won the seat with 52%; McCain got 63% while McCrory and Dole each got 57%.

The important thing here is that Rouzer only won Jonhston county by 141 votes. It was a good scenario for Democrats, but it still shows that McIntyre can make inroads there.

[Miles]

Well, some good news. Kissell has got the support of the Robeson County Black Caucus. This comes as black leadership groups elsewhere in the district have refused to back him.

This does make sense, when you consider that the Robeson Dems have been supporting McIntyre, who was always more conservative than Kissell,  for years

[Miles]

I put together a list of county benchmarks for Kissell. He could do better or worse, but this is pretty good general picture of how he would need to perform to reach 50.1% overall:



So on map, his performance here would look like this (using my 5% scale):

[Miles]

I don't see him getting the 40% in Union.

Union will be though, I agree. He's already represented a pretty big swath of it for 4 years now though. Also, Obama got 39% in the Union part of the district and Hagan got 42%, so I think 40% would be a decent benchmark for Kissell.

I think that, other than the counties that he's safe in, Kissell needs to focus the most on Cabarrus.

[Miles]

So I've had a few encounters with Randy Crow on Facebook; he was running in the CD7 R primary, but was little more than an afterthought as the race featured a close match between Rouzer and Pantano.

In any case, after garnering about 6% in the primary, he apparently has nothing better to do than troll McIntyre's wall and recite talking points.

[Miles]

Well, we've had a pretty mum few weeks for Congressional races in NC. Wait, wasn't there some big event in Charlotte last week!?

Larry Kissell has earned the title of the "Most Elusive Democrat in North Carolina," because he's keeping his association with Obama at arms' length, displayed most recently through his absence at the DNC. This seemed to be well-informed move on Kissell's part:

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Its also encouraging to hear from locals like this guy:

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And this guy:

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Meanwhile, next door in CD7, McIntyre actually did attend the DNC. He addressed the NC delegates, but otherwise laid low throughout the course of the convention.

[Miles]

McIntyre is out with a new add which mostly emphasizes his socially conservative credentials.

[Miles]

Richard Hudson's RNC speech.

Its very bland and generic while he's weak on the delivery, if I do say so myself.

[Miles]

Roll Call was out with an article on Friday highlighting McIntyre' surprisingly strong resilience.

[Miles]

Well, the DCCC can go screw itself:

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[Miles]

Well, the DCCC can go screw itself:

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That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

[Miles]

Well, the DCCC can go screw itself:

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That's quite silly.

Exactly.

I don't see why they'd spend money going after an entrenched incumbent like Bono Mack (who's pretty clearly favored) as opposed to investing in a tossup race like Kissell's.

A lot of entrenched Dem incumbents lost in 2010;

Also the race between Mary Bono Mack and Raul Ruiz is actually pretty clearly a tossup at this point.  I'm not saying that they should necessarily triage Kissell (though on the other hand, who knows what the internal polling is showing), but we certainly have a better chance of picking up that seat than we do of keeping Kissell's seat.

Richard Hudson's own internal polling is showing him leading Kissell by only a few points.

[Miles]

On the State Senate side, here's an interactive map of the 50 Senate districts.

I don't think the Democrats have a chance at retaking the chamber this year, as the article speculates, but they may net a few seats at best.

[Miles]

There will be an 8th district debate on Monday.

[Miles]

Hmmmm.

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[Miles]

I actually haven't watched it yet

But from what I gather, it was pretty much what you would expect: Hudson went on the offensive while Kissell continued to cast himself as a centrist. Overall, it sounds like Hudson gave the better performance.

There is another debate scheduled in Lumberton during the first week of October, IIRC.

[Miles]

Its been a while.

Anyway, today Sabato moved NC-07 from Tossup to Lean D.

[Miles]

I updated the first post; I now only have the names of the official nominees listed. Let me know if you find errors!

[Miles]

Lately, McIntyre has been emphasizing his support from mayors in CD7. Roughly 75% are endorsing him.
 
He was also more recently out with endorsements from a handful of Johnston County mayors. This is important because they can help him make inroads there in the future.

[Miles]

As for CD8, the Charlotte Observer was had an article about how Kissell has beaten the odds before.

This is the only where I've reached into my own pocket (because, 'ya know, we college students can spend millions of our own money to influence these races).

[Miles]

Not much in the way of polling lately in CD7 or 8. Still, editorials like this and this are good for Kissell.

[Miles]

I'm trying to make Presidential predictions for NC by CD. This, of course, led me to making some swing/trend maps:

[Miles]

My Presidential projections by CD: