Not to beat a dead horse, but if the 2014 environment ends up like 2010, couldn't Kay Hagan end up in a pretty rough situation like Marshall? I'm still a rookie with reading polls, and I apologize for that, but if Hagan doesn't do well with undecideds, I wouldn't want to be in her shoes when November swings around.
No, because Marshall wasn't the DNC's choice and it abandoned her right after she won the primary. She had to go through a runoff which also drained resources. Finally, Burr was (is) popular in the Triad area, which is swingy (e.g, he was able to carry Guilford County).
Dalton also hit the 43% mark but again, he had everything working against him. He was outspent 3:1 while having to contend with Perdue's unpopularity and an exceptionally strong candidate in McCrory.
Unlike McCrory or Burr, Tillis really doesn't have a region where he can markedly overperform in the general. He's from Mecklenburg County, but only represents the northern part of (which is already heavily R downballot).
As for the undecideds in this poll, they favor Hagan. They skew younger, female and less wealthy. It seems like it will be more of issue of motivating those voters.
Which brings me to badgate's comment...
Yes, as I've said before, if Hagan wasn't from one of my states, I might not be nearly as enthusiastic as I am about her. She's not the most charismatic candidate.
Still, her campaign is emphasizing all the bread and butter issues, especially education and women's issues. I think Democrats will eventually come home to her because 1) the NCGA will be back in session next month 2) the Moral Mondays that go with that will motivate the base and 3) her campaign hasn't really kicked into gear in terms of ads and messaging.
